Gleason: Palin will help GOP win 'four or five' congressional seats in PA

Politicker PA ^ | 9/16/08 | Alex Roarty

[impeachedrapist]

...[g]eneric ballots between Republicans and Democrats show a dead heat, Gleason said, "and that's caused Democrats to be very nervous about their congressional seats."

The chairman, joined by congressional candidate Craig Williams for the state's 7th Congressional District, spoke to reporters on a conference call hours before Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden campaigned in the Philadelphia suburbs.

The GOP appears to have its best shot at winning back seats in northeastern Pennsylvania, where Republicans Lou Barletta and Chris Hackett are in tight races with their opponents. Barletta is locked in a heated battle with longtime incumbent U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Nanticoke) in the 11th Congressional District, and Hackett is facing first-term U.S. Rep. Chris Carney (D-Dimock) in the conservative 10th Congressional District.

Republican chances outside of NEPA appear less positive. An internal poll released by Melissa Hart's campaign showed her down five points to U.S. Rep. Jason Altmire (D-McCandless), a rematch of their 2006 battle when Altmire unseated her.

Gleason also pointed to Williams' race against U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Edgmont) as a potential Republican victory.

[impeachedrapist]

1) I agree. Your "Murtha is going to be tough" comment was not needed. Major "Duh!" factor. But no apology necessary.

2) In response to this: They didn’t mention that Dem-dope in Bucks County, Patrick Murphy.

Maybe they didn't, but I covered PA-8 in my post #3. As of 30 June Manion had $500K in the bank, while freshman Murphy had $2.2M.

[impeachedrapist]

In MI-01 Bush carried the district in 2004 with 53%. According to the FEC Pubbie challenger Tom Casperson had virtually no money in mid July, while multi-term (8 or 9 terms, can't recall) Bart Stupak had a half a million banked at that time.

Casperson's got his work cut out for him, but I wish him well.

[impeachedrapist]

LA-06: Hotline is now reporting that Cazayoux just released a Dem poll showing him leading by 16 points. I don't have access to the particulars, but I find that just a bit suspicious. It did include the third-party Michael Jackson.

An Anazalone Liszt Research (D) poll; conducted 9/17-21 for Rep. Don Cazayoux (D); surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 9/22). Tested: Cazayoux, state Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) and Dem state Rep. Michael ...

[impeachedrapist]

Oh, and PA-08 gave President Bush 48% in ‘04.

[TAdams8591]

bump

[PurpleMan]

Remo Williams is THE man!

http://www.craigwilliamsforcongress.com/

[impeachedrapist]

NH-1 went for Bush by 51% in 2004. Freshman incumbent Dem Carol Shea-Porter defeated Jeb Bradley, who is running to recapture his seat. On Aug 20 Jeb had $360K in the bank (but $350 in debt, for +$10K), while Shea-Porter had $675K ready and waiting. However, Bradley did have to defeat a primary challenger just a couple of weeks ago. There are also Green and Libertarian candidates on the general election ballot. Low turnout killed Bradley in '06 (when polling generally showed him ahead), so he's got a decent shot at this seat if he can get some more money in the bank. McCain's strength in the competitive state of NH likely means plenty of visits, translating to $$$ and exposure for Jeb.

[Fresh Wind]

Yeah, but Murphy won in 2006 by only about 1200 votes, out of about 250,000. That's less than one percent. Murphy is a floater who will be gone on the second flush.

[hout8475]

I would like to see PA lead in the Congressional switch back to the GOP. In 2006, four districts (4, 7, 8, and 10) all switched from GOP to Dem. The GOP has a good chance of picking back up at least a couple of these and could be more competitive in long-time Dem. Districts 11 & 12 this time. Districts 4, 10, 11, and 12 are largely made up of socially conservative blue-collar voters, while Districts 7 & 8 consist of largely white collar suburbanites. District 8 especially tends to have more socially liberal voters.

[Beeman]

What was the Dem to Rep #s in PA in the last election?

[impeachedrapist]

What was the Dem to Rep #s in PA in the last election?

Good question. I was digging around earlier, without much success. I seem to recall, but have not been able to find a source, that the Dem to GOP numbers the past two Presidential elections were nearly dead even in 2004 and +2-4 Dems for 2000. But the only thing I've been able to find so far was voter registration in Nov 04 showed Dems leading Pubbies about 48-41.

I'm hoping some of the PA residents can answer your question better than I can.

[impeachedrapist]

Yes, I seem to recall Murphy won with something like 50.2%. Very, very close, as your numbers demonstrated.

[Beeman]

What was the Dem to Rep #s in PA in the last election?

[edh]

If the GOP has any kind of good strategery this year, they will begin a media blitz right after the Palin/Biden debates. If I am not mistaken, you’re slightly under 30 days until the election at that point....that’s the time to strike.

If Sarah (sorry....Gov. Palin....but I just feel like she’s one of us) delivers, we’re going to get a nice surge with only 4 weeks left for the Communists to retort. It is at that point that you have to begin the ramp-up of rhetoric and distribute the cash to your congressional candidates. Doing anything this early is a waste in my opinion....we actually have managed to build some momentum in this race!

Dems. are in a position where they HAVE to spend money early (i.e. Altimarie running commercials, billboards, etc.) since they know they are in swing districts with a candidate that’s somewhat flaming out at the top of their ticket (I’m sure THAT’S RACIST to say that!!!). The seats they gained in 2006 are mostly swing seats...it’ll cost them more to defend them. 10% approval ratings means that all of these people are in some form of trouble.

I think the GOP’s best bet (aside from the pres. race of course) is to fight like mad for the House. Any gain on our part would be a decent coup and could lead to the ousting of Pelosi. Taking control would be a Godsend. That’s a stretch, but so was 1994 :-)!

I suspect the Senate is a loss, but if we can earn some additional political capital this election via gains in the House while maintaining the White House and a accepting some marginal losses in the Senate, that could spell the end of the Pelosi/Reid Empire.

And to think that I actually *miss* Daschle and Gephardt at this point as opposition leaders (sickening). Pelosi and Reid have been a disaster of epic proportions. In computer lingo....EPIC FAIL!

[impeachedrapist]

Ping to my #47 for your input. I have not included NH-2, which is less conservative a district (also held by a freshman Dem, I believe), as a GOP pick-up opportunity. But I’d like to hear your take since you apparently live in NH.

[impeachedrapist]

Yeah, the GOP is seriously swimming upstream regarding the Senate. I recall a couple of weeks ago the McCain camp announced plans for Gov. Palin to do about 30 fundraisers over the final 60 days of the campaign. Which is very encouraging. But I can also think of one or two of them where she has postponed or maybe even cancelled. I do hope the majority of these events go on as planned, in districts such as the ones highlighted on this thread, or in states like Washington - where Dino Rossi is in good shape to win the governorship stolen from him four years ago.

[OCCASparky]

Impeached--the following is an article from TheHill.com from last night. My apologies, but I forgot hot to hotlink:

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/poll-hodes-may-be-in-trouble-2008-09-22.html

She's only down by 4 points and nearly 20 percent undecided. She's also killing him in the debates. This is a woman who two months ago trailed Hodes by 20 points when hardly anyone knew who she was. The more people up in the north country see her, the more they like her.

When you couple that with the real animosity towards Shea-Porter, or Che-Porter as she's known, there is a very good chance both House seats could go back to the GOP, especially when you consider a moderate Republican like McCain actually does very well up here and now leads Obama.

Sadly, Sununu hasn't run much of a campaign and it doesn't look good for him going up against Queen Jeanne the Spending Machine, which is sad because he's actually the better of our two Senators. Come 2010 you'll probably see Gregg get voted out as well, possibly by Lynch, who almost certainly will win a third term despite being a horrible governor thus far.

[Fresh Wind]

Just ran the numbers, I was a bit off. Murphy won by 1521 votes out of 249,813. That’s 50.3% vs. 49.7%.

But Murphy has a big lead in money raised, something like 5-to-1. He’s gotten tons of money from lawyers and unions, naturally. He got a lot of cash from moveon.org in 2006, not sure about this time.

Murphy ran as an anti-war Murtha-lite defeatist, and fought the surge at every opportunity. That won’t help him as much this time.

Let us hope McCain has some long coatails.

[Tribune7]

ping

[impeachedrapist]

Interesting stuff, thanks. I don't put much stock in that particular poll, however. NH-2 went for Kerry 52-47. Incumbent freshman Paul Hodes has $947K in cash, with a debt of $156K. His GOP opponent, Jennifer Horn, has $146K cash on hand, but $175K in debt. Both candidates' fundraising info is as of 8/20/08.