Gleason: Palin will help GOP win 'four or five' congressional seats in PA

Politicker PA ^ | 9/16/08 | Alex Roarty

[impeachedrapist]

I don’t understand your question.

[Impy]

Good to see Gard is funded.

Win or lose I believe McCain will carry the majority of districts.

[impeachedrapist]

IL-14 is Denny Hastert's old seat the GOP lost this year during a special election. Dem Bill Foster defeated Jim Oberweis 53-47, and the rematch is on. Bush carried this district in 2004 with 56%. As of 30 Jun the Dem incumbent has $443K cash, with $1.004M in debt. Oberweis had $547K on hand, with $1.645M in debt.

Both candidates are seriously in debt, but I can't get past that 56% GOP vote in 2004. Apparently Oberweis is a perpetual candidate who rarely if ever wins anything, so that may well be an advantage to Foster.

[impeachedrapist]

The money numbers definitely favor the Dems in both NH-1 and NH-2. The 96% white vote is not helpful to Obama, so that might possibly be enough to help the GOP win back one or both seats. But I’m admittedly disappointed in the fundraising.

[impeachedrapist]

This one can stay up at the top of the watchlist as well:

Pombo's old seat, CA-11. The district went 54% for Bush in 2004. On 30 June the incumbent Dem freshman, McNerney, had $1.3 million. The GOP challenger, Dean Andal, had $667K. Definitely enough money to be competitive in a district favorable to Pubbies.

As of 9/30 Pubbie Andal had $850K cash with no debt. Dem Rep. McNerney, after subtracting $32K in debt, has just a hair under a million bucks. Andal is in a VERY competitive position in a 54% GOP district.

[OCCASparky]

I sincerely doubt Horn will win in 2nd District. The VT/NH border is filled with idiot libtards. Che-Porter, OTOH, has peeved off a lot of folks in 1st District and outside of Portsmouth area, she won’t be likely to do well. Only problem with that is, if she’s voted out she comes back to my town (Rochester).

[Perdogg]

Are these seats that are currently democrats as opposed to just seats?

[impeachedrapist]

Only problem with that is, if she’s voted out she comes back to my town (Rochester).

Well, suck it up and take one for the team!! ;-)

[impeachedrapist]

Yes. There could be one or two exceptions, I suppose, scattered throught the thread. But my focus here is on Dem seats where I think the GOP can be competitive.

[impeachedrapist]

AL-05 is Bud Cramer's old seat. He's a centrist Dem known for strongly supporting missile defense (see Huntsville AL). This district went 60% for Bush in '04. Dem Parker Griffith is running against Wayne Parker, who I believe has run for this seat twice. June 30th FEC numbers showed Griffith with $352K cash, $10K in debt. W. Parker had $73K cash and no debt. The Dem had an early lead, but a recent left-leaning poll showed only a 45-40 Dem lead.

As of 9/30 the Dem Griffith had $127K on hand with no debt. The Pubbie challenger Parker had $255K and no debt. Another excellent pick-up opportunity in a 60% GOP district.

[impeachedrapist]

MS-01 is in the northern part of Mississippi. From 1941-1995 it was represented by Dem. Jamie Whitten, the longest House tenure in history.

The Dems won MS-01, 54-46, in a special election earlier this year. The seat came open when Gov. Barbour picked current rep. Roger Wicker to fill Trent Lott's Senate seat. President Bush carried this district with 62% in 2004. This November features a rematch between incumbent very freshman Travis Childers and Republican Greg Davis. FEC data on June 30th (not long after the special election) showed both candidates with slightly more debt than cash on hand. Davis should benefit from a larger turnout this November in a conservative district, but losing just a few months ago probably won't help his cause.

At the end of Sep Dem Childers had $302K on hand, with $150K in debt. Pubbie Davis had $178K and $55K in debt. Reminder, this is a 62% GOP district.

[GraniteStateConservative]

No way in hell Paul Hodes loses in NH-2. His numbers will mirror Lynch’s nearly.

[impeachedrapist]

Just like there's no way in Hell Murtha loses PA-12?

I'm interested in the second part of your comment, that his numbers will likely mirror Lynch's numbers. Thanks. For those wondering NH-2 went 52% for Kerry.

[impeachedrapist]

Hat tip to you, Impy, for calling my attention to AZ-08. This district went 53% for Bush in 2004, and Repubs have a 6% registration advantage. The incumbent Dem is Gabrielle Giffords. Her GOP opponent is Timothy Bee. As of 9/30 Giffords had $937K on hand with no debt. Bee has $255K on hand with virtually no debt. She's already spent over $2M, while he's spent over $1M.

[OCCASparky]

I won’t go so far as to say that, given that Lynch will likely win a third term by a 3-1 margin like he did in 2006. However, Hodes will win by at least 10-15 points. Horn simply doesn’t have the money or the name recognition, having had to fight through the primaries. And again, there’s that VT/NH border demographic. Keene, Berlin, etc., all went for Kerry 2-1 or more in 2004.

[Impy]

Yeah Tim Bee showed interest early so it’s been on my radar for a long time.

Giffords faced a weak opponent in ‘06 so she’s really untested.

[impeachedrapist]

She just took office in Jan 07, so that race was her initial test. She won by over twelve points.

[impeachedrapist]

TX-23, which used to be Henry Bonilla's seat, went for President Bush with 57% in '04. But freshman incumbent Ciro Rodriguez defeated Bonilla in '06 by more than 8 points in a Dec 06 run-off. Rogriguez is now running against Lyle Larson. This southwest TX district borders Mexico and is heavily Hispanic, so I'm thinking the Rodriguez name ain't gonna hurt. But the DCCC is apparently worried, because last week they just filed an FEC complaint against Lyle. :-) In late June Larson had $279K with no debt, while the incumbent freshman had $1.2M and virtually no debt.

As of 10/15 Dem Rodriguez had $619K on hand with no real debt. As of 9/30 Larson had $194K on hand. Even with the 57% GOP number, I'll be surprised if Larson can pull this off.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Actually, looking at John Murtha’s possibly close election shows more why Hodes is safe. Murtha has become more of a big-mouthed celebrity in the past 4 years. Hodes has stayed out of the spotlight, and just showed up to work every day without fanfare. It’s a very smart strategy for such a new congressman, a do no harm strategy. He opposed the bailout twice, which was widely hated in NH-2, so he was smart enough to just rubber stamp his constituency on this and many other things. A poll a few days ago had him up 49 to 35 on Horn. He’ll end up winning 57-41-2.

[impeachedrapist]

PA-10 is a district that went for Bush in 2004 with 60%. At this time GOP challenger Chris Hackett is very slightly ahead of Dem Rep. Carney with cash on hand. However, Carney has no debt while the Pubbie has run up a debt of right at one million bucks. Both guys have raised $2.2M and spent $1.8M. The million dollar debt was a candidate loan, so I'm guessing the GOPer Hackett likes his chances. Any PA folks that can weigh in on this race??