Posted on 10/03/2008 11:36:12 AM PDT by Retired Greyhound
Not a big vanity guy, but I find this fascinating.
Yesterday we were told that McCain's campaign planned to redirect some of it's Michigan resources to various other states where they feel they have a better chance. One of those is the state of Maine.
As most of us know, Maine is one of two states that splits electoral votes, Nebraska being the other. McCain has a decent chance at picking up 1 electoral vote from the nothern Republican leaning part of the state. Olympia Snowe is on the ballot for reelection and running quite strong.
On it's face, it seems silly to bail out of Michigan to pursue 1 vote in Maine, but there is a very realistic scenario where this 1 vote could decide the election.
From Politico: "Obama is campaigning aggressively in a series of states George W. Bush won in 2004 — Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana — in what Obama aides say is roughly the order of likelihood of victory."
Iowa and New Mexico are all but lost. That adds 12 electoral votes to the 252 that Obama is coming in with, bringing his total to 264. He is also running well in Colorado. If he wins those 9 votees, he is at 273.
From Politico: "McCain's options for blue state pickups now have shrunk to effectively four states: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota. A senior aide said their prospects for winning any of the four were in about that order."
McCain is running well in NH. If he is only pick up those 4 votes, we have a 269-269 tie. Not good. The election goes to the House, where Obama would win. (Interesting aside; the Senate decides on VP. There is some debate about whether the Contsitution mandates that the current Senate or incoming Senate casts this vote. If it is the current Senate, and Lieberman sides with the Republicans, it would be 50-50. Cheney would break the tie, meaning that Sarah Palin would be VP. So we would be looking at an Obama-Palin administration. Oh the fun).
Anyhow, now all of a sudden, that 1 electoral vote from Maine gives McCain and 270-268 electoral victory.
Of course, we wouldn't be out of the woods yet. Electors are not bound to vote for any particular candidate, and you could bet that there would be great pressure on that 1 Maine elector to vote Obama, or for other McCain electors to switch, especially if Obama wins the popular vote.
We could be in for a very interesting election.
If Obama was pres. and Palin VP, do you think Obama would still think the VP is part of the executive branch? Do you think the VP would still have an office just down the hall from the presidents?
Maine, the land of my birth, is this || close to being dead to me....
Ping
No there isn't. Existing precedent (1824, 1876) has the new Senate voting.
It's extremely unlikely that the Dems will fail to pick up seats in the Senate (Warner and NM Udall being way ahead), so a 269-269 tie would result in Obama-Biden, not Obama-Palin. Also, even if the old Senate voted, I think Biden would win -- no way Chuck Hagel is voting for Palin.
1. There's no chance the scenario you described will happen because of near-certain Dem gains in the Senate.
2. The last two times the President and Vice President were political opponents (1796-1800 and 1800-1804) the country was plunged into near-total chaos. I'm not sure we'd want Palin serving in a hypothetical Obama Administration.
This is the kind of scenario that makes throw up due to fear.
I am still standing by my prediction, minus the chickens.
McCain wins c.p. from 2004, PA,NH,ME-CD2,MN = +35
loses, IA and NM,,-12.
McCain 309
Obama 229
The 527s can pick up the slack in MI and WI.
New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota.
McCain has been popular in New Hampshire for a long time. Those 4 votes coming in early would be a nice boost early in the evening.
Wisconsin and Minnesota—Hockey mom’s for Palin/McCain may be enough to swing one of those. There are a lot of pro-life, hard working people who I believe relate very well to Governor Sarah in this area.
Pennsylvania elections are a contest of counting dead people and pets registered to vote in Philadelphia vs the rest of the state. Western Pennsylvania will vote solidly for McCain/Palin. If voter fraud is held to a minimum in Philly, then McCain/Palin wins Pennsylvania.
DON’T FORGET THIS:
FROM 2004:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1266241/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1266123/posts
XXXXX DRUDGE REPORT XXXXX TUE NOV 02, 2004 09:06:35 ET XXXXX
UPDATE: VOTES ‘FOUND ON MACHINES’ IN PHILLY BEFORE POLLS OPEN
Before voting even began in Philadelphia — Republican poll watchers believed they found nearly 2000 votes already planted on machines scattered in heavy-minority locations throughout the city.
Republican poll watchers claim:
One incident occurred at the SALVATION ARMY, 2601 N. 11th St., Philadelphia, Pa: Ward 37, division 8.
Pollwatchers uncovered 4 machines with planted votes; one with over 200 and one with nearly 500...
A second location, 1901 W. Girard Ave., Berean Institute, Philadelphia, Pa, had 300+ votes already on 2 machines at start of day.
ANOTHER INCIDENT: 292 votes on machine at start of day; WARD/DIVISION: 7/7: ADDRESS: 122 W. Erie Ave., Roberto Clemente School, Philadelphia, Pa..
ANOTHER: 456 votes on machine at start of day; WARD/DIVISION: 12/3; ADDRESS: 5657 Chew Ave., storefront, Philadelphia, Pa...
With 3 of the 4 candidates being Senators that could be very interesting.
Uh oh. Perdogg, you used virtually the SAME WORDS on October 29, 2006:
I am sticking with my prediction. Very little turn over. This will be very much like 1990.
I was right about the 2005 National championship basketball game and the 2006 National championship football game.
There is just no way that McCain wins PA and MN and loses NM. Not happening. NM will vote very close to the national average, while PA will be 2-4 points more Democratic (maybe less this year) and MN will be about 3-5 points more Democratic. And I guarantee that if McCain wins PA, he’s winning WI as well and has a shot at winning MI.
voter fraud did me in.
Sounds like a bad Kevin Costner movie.
I am sure Maine’s law would require it.
Olympia Snowe is not the ballot - it is Susan Collins.
I always get them mixed up
I understand. :-)
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