Intrade Analysis: Palin wins Debate, Even in the Face of Blatant Manipulation Attempt

Intrade ^ | October 3, 2008 | Intrade

[Kevmo]

A snapshot of Intrade prices for various contracts was taken before and after the debate. It showed a mixed bag at the time. However, the CEO of Intrade has posted that there was a blatant market manipulation attempt to boost Obama's price. As a result of adjustments, what was a murky vision is now clear: Palin won big.

This debate was unique at Intrade because there was a contract to trade based upon Intrade prices resulting after the debate. It was based upon my suggestion sent in to Intrade.

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04/10/2008 02:04:27
Subject: Re:New Intrade VP Debate Contracts
ko

Director

Joined: 03/11/2007 19:01:54 Messages: 531 Online

LongOdds wrote:

ko.... debate's almost over... Contract is at 70. lol

Looks like I get the last laugh here. Obama LOST.

VP.DEBATE.OBAMA
Barack Obama's Intrade value will increase more than John McCain's following the VP debate Trade Expired at 0.0 5719

And to top it off, that was in the face of market manipulation per Intrade.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/2684.page

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03/10/2008 04:34:35
Subject: Re:New Intrade VP Debate Contracts
ko

Director

Joined: 03/11/2007 19:01:54 Messages: 531
Online Here's the analysis I posted at Free Republic. I'm hoping Ethan is right and no one listens to me on this forum right now...

To: Kevmo; All; y'all; et al

It looks like a bit of a mixed bag at Intrade, with Obama/Biden basically lightly ahead. Their ticket showed +1.2 on 1498 volume on the new Presidential Debate contract, which seems to be exactly for the purpose of which I’m using right now. The individual contracts, which normally have the highest volume and highest emotional content, had a +0.1 and –0.1 swing from McCain to Obama on low volume. Basically not much change. The Party contracts did see a + 2.7 point swing for Obama on light volume. BUT the Sarah Palin withdraw contract lost 4.9 points, almost half its value, on medium volume (on a thin contract, which is probably a significant indicator). The Biden Withdrawal contract dropped down 0.1 on only 1 share of volume.

What does this mean? Well, the volumes are kind of light, so it probably doesn’t mean much. However, on the Palin withdrawal contract, we would have seen it go UP significantly if she really did poorly, but it went DOWN significantly; also the volume on this contract is significant in comparison to the rest of the trades on that contract. So it looks like the perception of her being a lightweight is going out the window. But Biden held his own, and that’s about all the democrats needed to do in order to continue moving ahead.

Politics - Presidential Debates Which ticket will benefit more from Vice Presidential debate? Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
VP.DEBATE.OBAMA
Barack Obama’s Intrade value will increase more than John McCain’s following the VP debate M Trade Last Vol Change
New: 55.1 3149
Old: 53.9 1651 +1.2 on 1498 volume
Politics - 2008 US Election
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) Contract 2008.PRES.OBAMA
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Last Vol Chge
New: 67.5 744328
Old: 67.4 742040 +0.1 on 2228 Volume

2008.PRES.McCAIN
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
New 32.5 730841
Old: 32.6 729087 -0.1 on 1754 volume


2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party)
Contract PRESIDENT.DEM2008
Democratic Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential
Election M Trade
Last Vol Chge
New: 69.7 127640
Old: 68.8 127601 +0.9 on 39 Volume


PRESIDENT.REP2008
Republican Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade
Last Vol Chge
New: 30.7 119050
Old: 32.5 118861 -1.8 on 189 Volume

Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee/candidate
Contract PALIN.VP.WITHDRAWN

Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee/candidate before 2008 presidential election M

Last Vol Chge
New: 5.1 39759
Old: 10.0 39021 –4.9 on 738 volume


Joe Biden to be withdrawn as Democratic VP candidate
Contract BIDEN.VP.WITHDRAWN
Joe Biden to be withdrawn as Democratic VP candidate before 2008 presidential election M Trade
Last Vol Chge
New: 5.9 9549
Old: 6.0 9548 -0.1 on 1 share of volume

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Link to Original Free Republic posting:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2096085/posts?page=2396#2396

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Last minute debate market manipulation

03/10/2008 17:10:53 Subject: Last minute debate market manipulation GAW838

Director

Joined: 10/09/2007 01:39:47 Messages: 598 Online In the last 10 minutes so before the averaging window expiry, there was what seemed to be a fairly transparent attempt to temporarily move the Obama price up and the McCain price down. The prices have reverted to there normal levels within minutes.

I haven't done the calculations, but I am fairly certain the trades were in in sufficient volume / at high enough prices to flip the outcome of the veep debate contract. Whoever tried to do this apparently lacked either a full understanding of the contract rules, sufficient financial resources execute the manipulation, or the wherewithall to push aggessively enough and risk significant losses in a manipulation attempt that might fail.

I don't know if there's a takeaway message from this, but it is nice that people who traded in good faith will only benefit from this attempt, while the manipulator will also certainly suffere financially. Rate12345

03/10/2008 18:01:09 Subject: Re:Last minute debate market manipulation Intrade

Novice

Joined: 04/09/2007 14:01:01 Messages: 38 Online Great post and thank you for making it!

I was watching in real-time the trading that was happening on both the McCain and Obama for President markets.

As you identified there appears to have been an attempt to manipulate the above markets with a view to causing the “Debate Market” to settle at 100. It did not.

Those involved will be contacted by our team and their accounts appropriately flagged on the exchange.

Where we identify trading activity that in our opinion is manipulative (or attempts at same) we reserve the right to reverse or void such trades.

Thank you again for your post.

John Delaney CEO Intrade

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- To protect yourself from identity theft never give out your Intrade login or password. Contact Intrade on help@intrade.com

[Kevmo]

During the debate, I posted this on the Intrade forum:

So far, according to Intrade...

Palin's winning.

Politics - Presidential Debates
Which ticket will benefit more from Vice Presidential debate?
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
VP.DEBATE.OBAMA
Barack Obama's Intrade value will increase more than John McCain's following the VP debate M Trade
42.0 45.0 44.0 2670 -17.0

[Kevmo]

Links:

And to top it off, that was in the face of market manipulation per the CEO of Intrade.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/2684.page

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Link to Original Free Republic posting:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2096085/posts?page=2396#2396

[Kevmo]

Hello Momaw:

Here’s an Intrade thread about the debate. I do not have a list of people interested in discussing Intrade, but you do. I posted to you asking how to send out to your ping list on your regular Monday thread, but you must be busy.

[NOBAMA in 08]

Major Factoid!!!!

[Cicero]

Fascinating. If they determine who was manipulating the numbers, will they make it public?

[Kevmo]

Fascinating. If they determine who was manipulating the numbers, will they make it public?
***I doubt it. But I asked them to, anyways.

[tbw2]

McCain’s Barracuda
By Tamara Wilhite

I saw the end of the debate today
I had to turn my eyes away
Wanted to smile at your son – kisses he’ll get from anyone
Alaskan mom tales – it never fails!

Among the ice and the weeds
I know you’re going to ambush me
Democrats fall down onto their knees
Who could do it? – Barracuda!

Two years ago made governor
Before that a small time mayor
Promised to be a reformer,
This woman is a change?

Working mom riles real feminists
They’ve got to make up lies real quick
If one fails, try another trick.
Who could do it? – Barracuda!

“Sell me, sell you” the congress said
Down into deep debt above my head
Who is it that doesn’t feel the taxing blues?

All that night and all the next
To argue and debate and then to jest
Mom of five they say is a tool or fool

If the real thing don’t do the trick – no!
They’ve got to make up more lies quick
Yet sexy librarian is still in it.
Who could do it? – McCain’s Barracuda!

By Tamara Wilhite
Author of “Humanity’s Edge”, “Sirat” and “Genres”
Written for a contest I didn’t win

[Kevmo]

Cool. Now I can post my Free Republic song:

Sung to the tune of “Oh! Susanna, don’t you cry for me.” .... “Oh, no Bama, please don’t lie to me... for I’m off to Free Republic with a laptop on my knee.”

I come from Minnesota with my laptop on my knee; | I’m goin’ to Free Republic my true love for to see. | It rained all night the day you left, | the weather it was dry; | The sun so hot you froze to death, | Obama don’t you lie. | | Oh! No Bama, don’t you lie to me; | I come from Minnesota, with my laptop on my knee.

I had a dream the other night, | When everything was still; | I thought I saw Obama dear, | A-coming for The Hill. | The smearing lie was in Duluth, | The croc tear in his eye, | Said I, I’m coming for the truth | Obama don’t you lie. | | Oh! No Bama, don’t you lie to me; | I’m off to Free Republic, | with my laptop on my knee.

I fight in my pajamas, | It’s plain for all to see. | I aim to be the next Buckhead; | The media all hate me. | I fell in love with Sarah | When my sister bit a moose. | The Guvnor’s family ate it up | And then they set it loose. | | Oh! No Bama, don’t you lie to me; | I’m off to Free Republic, | with my laptop on my knee.

She loves her sons, she likes her guns, | and Triggernometry. | The media will jump the shark | When Juan makes history. | Well, JimRob knows she’ll pave the trolls | So controversially, | And Berg will knock Obama down | With friends of Hillary. | | Oh! No Bama, don’t you lie to me; | I’m off to Free Republic with a laptop on my knee.

I soon will be in Hawaii, | And then I’ll look all ‘round, | And when I find his birth record, | I’ll fall upon the ground. | But if I do not find it, | This Freeper’ll surely die, | And when I’m dead and buried, | Obama don’t you lie. | | Oh! No Bama, don’t you cry for me; | I’m off to Free Republic with a laptop on my knee.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2073903/posts?page=30#30

[Doug TX]

I expressed that Intrade was/is a fraud waiting to happen, but got an earful from some poster.

Great idea, but too thin trader and a guy like soros can drop a ton of money and skew everything. I’d rather have Vegas run these prop bets.

[sageb1]

Manipulation? Say it ain’t so. Sounds like what caused the mess on Wall Street right before the election.

[Kevmo]

a guy like soros can drop a ton of money and skew everything
***It was tried in 2004 with George Bush’s contract. Basically, a bunch of gamblers took the guy’s money.

[Kevmo]

Manipulation? Say it ain’t so.
***The CEO of Intrade said it was so.

[Revel]

The leftest dems manipulate everything. There motto is to cheat if you can.

[sageb1]

I'm sure it was. My point, however, is that I truly believe what happened on Wall St. to bring the economy down right now was probably also a manipulation.

[Kevmo]

That fits my preconceptions, so I’m a bit wary about accepting it too quickly. I asked one freeper a couple of days ago for support/links/documentation on this, and got nothing. Do you have something simple that a regular Joe Sixpack can follow? If so, please post it as a thread. We need this.

[maine-iac7]

BINGO

[tatown]

It appears Intrade is still being manipulated.

[Kevmo]

Then that’s an opportunity to make a lot of money.

[Momaw Nadon]

Thank you for bringing this to my attention Kevmo.

It appears that blatant market manipulation may have been attempted on Intrade according to its CEO.

This information might impact how we interpret the results of Intrade political contract prices.

Therefore, I am pinging the weekly Intrade Electoral Vote list to discuss this matter.

I will still be posting five more Electoral Vote weekly updates on Mondays with the last update occurring on Monday, November 3, 2008.

[Grampa Dave]

Fresh from the McCain people.

JOE BIDEN’S 14 LIES DURING THE DEBATE!

1. TAX VOTE: Biden said McCain voted “the exact same way” as Obama to increase taxes on Americans earning just $42,000, but McCain DID NOT VOTE THAT WAY.

2. AHMEDINIJAD MEETING: Joe Biden lied when he said that Barack Obama never said that he would sit down unconditionally with Mahmoud Ahmedinijad of Iran. Barack Obama did say specifically, and Joe Biden attacked him for it.

3. OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING: Biden said, “Drill we must.” But Biden has opposed offshore drilling and even compared offshore drilling to “raping” the Outer Continental Shelf.”

4. TROOP FUNDING: Joe Biden lied when he indicated that John McCain and Barack Obama voted the same way against funding the troops in the field. John McCain opposed a bill that included a timeline, that the President of the United States had already said he would veto regardless of it’s passage.

5. OPPOSING CLEAN COAL: Biden says he’s always been for clean coal, but he just told a voter that he is against clean coal and any new coal plants in America and has a record of voting against clean coal and coal in the U.S. Senate.

6. ALERNATIVE ENERGY VOTES: According to FactCheck.org, Biden is exaggerating and overstating John McCain’s record voting for alternative energy when he says he voted against it 23 times.

7. HEALTH INSURANCE: Biden falsely said McCain will raise taxes on people's health insurance coverage -- they get a tax credit to offset any tax hike. Independent fact checkers have confirmed this attack is false

8. OIL TAXES: Biden falsely said Palin supported a windfall profits tax in Alaska -- she reformed the state tax and revenue system, it's not a windfall profits tax.

9. AFGHANISTAN / GEN. MCKIERNAN COMMENTS: Biden said that top military commander in Iraq said the principles of the surge could not be applied to Afghanistan, but the commander of NATO's International Security Assistance Force Gen. David D. McKiernan said that there were principles of the surge strategy, including working with tribes, that could be applied in Afghanistan.

10. REGULATION: Biden falsely said McCain weakened regulation -- he actually called for more regulation on Fannie and Freddie.

11. IRAQ: When Joe Biden lied when he said that John McCain was “dead wrong on Iraq”, because Joe Biden shared the same vote to authorize the war and differed on the surge strategy where they John McCain has been proven right.

12. TAX INCREASES: Biden said Americans earning less than $250,000 wouldn’t see higher taxes, but the Obama-Biden tax plan would raise taxes on individuals making $200,000 or more.

13. BAILOUT: Biden said the economic rescue legislation matches the four principles that Obama laid out, but in reality it doesn’t meet two of the four principles that Obama outlined on Sept. 19, which were that it include an emergency economic stimulus package, and that it be part of “part of a globally coordinated effort with our partners in the G-20.”

14. REAGAN TAX RATES: Biden is wrong in saying that under Obama, Americans won't pay any more in taxes then they did under Reagan.

NOW, NOW, NOW...THERE GOES JOE BIDEN LYING AGAIN.