Posted on 10/09/2008 6:03:56 PM PDT by Jaguarmike
I'm not an expert at reading polls (and I appreciate the commentary from those of you who are), but it seems obvious to me that there are a few factors which makes the polls unreliable.
We know the polls sample more Democrats than Republicans. But these "Democrats" could very well include....
1. Voters from Operation Chaos.
2. Disgruntled Hillary voters who will either vote for McCain or won't vote at all
3. More youth - but given their voting habits in the past, they're hardly reliable.
On the other hand, I've heard Obama supporters say those numbers are low - because they're not conducted over cell phones - and most Democrats have cell phones only.
Thoughts? Comments?
I really don’t believe that 0bomba is getting 98% of the black vote. I’ve heard too many black people speaking out against him.
McCain can win this election.
For Obama to win, millions are going to have to make a leap of faith without any kind of a track record to convince them.
Like always the polls will change in the last week.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
You listened to Rush today too, huh?
4) People DELIBERATELY lying to the pollsters (like I did a couple days ago).
I would also add, and a whole lot of questions, any of which when answered would disqualify him in a heart beat.
There’s also the uncomfortable realization that a lot of professional race hustlers / baiters have — which is if America elects an African American (well, Kenyan American), their jig is up.
You can easily now say: Racism? With a Black Man in the White House?
That won’t go over too well for them.
Shame on you. Do you also lie to your patients?
Read the Wizbang analyis of the state polling and what a joke it is .
The FR God Scottie Rasmussen is one of the worst pollers .
Gee I am shocked !
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/10/09/state-poll-accuracy.php#more
Here’s some good advice from Rush Limbaugh on the topic of polls (ignore them):
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_090408/content/01125114.guest.html
No offense to Rush, I like him. He was wrong, both times on the Clintoon elections. He said the same thing, ignore them. My fear is that, even with all the negatives for Obamamama, he will still win this election. It will be closer than the pundits think, but he will win. I hope I am wrong.
There was a post about a week ago of how the polls got the Carter/Reagan election all wrong. They were trying to say the polls were in a tie and Reagan won by a landslide.
Can anyone link me to that again? Please.
why do this? McCain's low polling only seems to demoralize his supporters... i don't see the wisdom... and if it's the case that enough people are lying to pollsters to make it seem like McCain does not have as much support as Obama, perhaps Obama supporters are also lying and he actually is higher than the polls indicate--because he has supporters who are lying to the pollsters...
People DELIBERATELY lying to the pollsters (like I did a couple days ago)
why do this? McCain’s low polling only seems to demoralize his supporters... i don’t see the wisdom... and if it’s the case that enough people are lying to pollsters to make it seem like McCain does not have as much support as Obama, perhaps Obama supporters are also lying and he actually is higher than the polls indicate—because he has supporters who are lying to the pollsters...
He actually lied saying he was going to vote for McCain. :)
Follow the money.
The MSM is in cahoots with the polls, and the polls make money from the MSM during election cycles.
MSM= in the tank
Polls= cooked.
And speaking of following the money, I was having a discussion on another (football oriented) board about the rising costs of food, and how it can be traced back to the increased prices of fertilizer, ostensibly due to rising energy costs.
And when i was doing a quick search of one of the larger fertilizer companies in the US,(Archer Daniels Midland) i cam across this!
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=5905
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