Posted on 10/16/2008 7:10:24 AM PDT by Reagan Man
In the campaign's final two weeks, voters will take a last serious look at both presidential candidates. The outcome of the race isn't cast in stone yet.
Barack Obama holds a 7.3% lead in the Real Clear Politics average of all polls, but the latest Gallup tracking poll reveals that there are nearly twice as many undecided voters this year than there were in the last presidential election. The Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll (which was closest to the mark in predicting the 2004 outcome -- 0.4% off the actual result) now says this is a three-point race.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
No he certainly hasn’t closed any deal.
Many, many, many, many people are praying and believing. And we will continue to pray and believe.
I didn't expect such an incorrect assessment from Rove. He's just flat out wrong here.
From McCain's campaign calendar, here are the upcoming event locations as currently scheduled:
ME
PA
NC
OH
FL
IN
FL
PA
VA
NM
NV
NV
I wouldn't be surprised to see a CO visit in between NM and NV. And McCain/Palin just finished up a sweep through PA and NH yesterday and the day before. I don't know about you, but I see several blue states in their recent & upcoming schedule. Dire? LOL. McCain/Palin are in better shape electorally than the Obamessiah.
As far as Obama's money lead, it's significant. But Rove neglected to mention that McCain/Palin & the RNC have $160 million set aside for ads in battleground states these last 2-3 weeks.
I just heard on the news that Palin will come to co. during early voting.
Even if that were true, it’s still a win. Am I right that McCain gets to 270 without NH or NM or IA? Or has my brain been fried by all the numbers?
45% of americans don’t think Obama is qualified to be president...
What a farce that is being placed on us.
He has done nothing that qualifies him to be Prez.
He has never made payroll.
He has never had a military “command”
He won his 1st politacal office by disqualifying the opponents voters.(Denenfrancisement of Black voters anyone?)
He won his senate seat by having his buddies realease sealed divorce documents. Has anyone gone to jail for this?
He is the only editor of the Harvard Law Review to never publish?
The only Editor ever not to clerk for a Justice.
All this shows waht an empty suit Zero is.
What a Joke is being played on us all.
IIRC, Senator Obama needs a net gain of 18 electoral votes compared to Kerry. Assuming IA is a gain (+7), Obama would need CO and either NV or NM, all without losing a blue state. If McCain were to win PA, Obama would need to run the table on 5 states (IA, VA, NV, NM, CO) to compensate.
And all THAT would mean nothing if McCain were also to flip New Hampshire...
And all THAT would mean nothing if McCain were also to flip New Hampshire...
Bush got 286 EVs without NH. So subtract 5 for NM and 7 for IA, that leaves 274 EVs. Obama would need to pick off NV, CO or another red state to win.
I just don't like Rove's completely defensive approach here. 1) It leaves no room for error. 2) It feeds this whole Obama is nearly invincible mantra. The Obamessiah has major problems in PA and is fighting to keep NH.
Nevada, Ohio, and Florida are always competitive — the GOP counterpart to light blue battleground states like Pennsylvania. North Carolina is a state that should be competitive, especially when a Southerner like Bush isn’t on the GOP ticket. Virginia has gotten more competitive over the last few years for other reasons — just as Wisconsin has for the other side.
The only state on this list that I don’t want to see is Indiana, but even here there are two special circumstances in play. First, a good chunk of the state is a Chicago suburb, and that’s helping Obama more than the normal generic Democratic candidate. Second, the state gets lots of ethanol subsidies, which McCain opposes.
But note further that McCain isn’t visiting Indiana; Sarah is. This tells me that the McCain camp thinks that he primarily needs to fire up his base in Indiana and he should be fine. Come to think of it, ditto for Nevada.
It is amazing Obama hasn’t been able to close the deal. There’s clearly a proverbial elephant in the room and it certainly isn’t his skin pigmentation!
McCain and Palin were both just in Wisconsin (and Iowa and MN) a week ago, and yesterday their campaign confirmed WI ad buys through 26 Oct. (Just nine days before the election.) So I'd say WI is certainly still in play. MN and IA? Who knows? I personally would ditch those two if needing to consolidate resources, so I could go after NH, PA and WI while also protecting my red states.
Just follow this simple math.
Obama 2008 = Kerry 2004 - 10% Hillary Votes - 5% Race votes + 5% ACORN Votes.
Net result is he will get only 90% of what Kerry got in 2004. If McCain/Palin can bring more Reps to vote, they can flip NH, WI,PA and MN. That will offset the losses of CO,NM,IA and Possibly OH (due to the Dem.Sec of State)
Outcome will be eerily similar to 2004. Mark it down. Will link this post on Nov.5th.
I'm betting her CO visit will be on Oct. 20th. (She's currently not scheduled that day, and is in NM the day before.)
Dump the illegal ACORN votes and Obama will not win.
Yes! and, the msm wants to keep pushing propaganda out there and some sheeple will believe it.
But not all! ;-)
************************
Sorry, but I have to run to the dentist.
Be back later.
Hold the fort please. ;-)))
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.