Posted on 10/20/2008 3:02:59 PM PDT by Chet 99
Monday, October 20, 2008 Email a Friend Email to a Friend
As Yogi Berra would say, it’s déjà vu all over again.
John McCain now has a two-point lead on Barack Obama in Ohio, 49% to 47%, in the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. A week ago Obama was ahead by two points, his first lead in Ohio since tracking of the race began in February.
The current poll finds McCain with his highest level of support since mid-September. But it’s hard to classify Ohio as anything but a pure toss-up. For four straight weeks, the two candidates have been within two points of each other or closer. During that time, neither man has topped 49% support or fallen below 47%. If the four polls are averaged together, Obama and McCain are within a half-point of each other.
In the new poll, one percent (1%) support independent candidate Ralph Nader and two percent (2%) are undecided.
Ohio, with its 20 Electoral College votes, is a classic swing state. George W. Bush carried it in both 2000 and 2004, but Democrat Bill Clinton won Ohio in the two previous presidential elections.
Both men and women in Ohio are now fairly evenly divided between the two candidates. Obama earns 67% of the vote from non-whites, while McCain has 53% of the white vote.
McCain has the support of 87% of Ohio Republicans and 13% of Democrats. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Democrats and 10% of GOP voters back Obama. Unaffiliated voters favor McCain by four points. Last week at this time, the Democrat had a seven-point edge among unaffiliateds.
In that earlier survey, 77% of voters said they were certain of whom they will vote for, while 23% said there was still a chance they might change their minds. Now 82% say they are certain of their vote.
Of those who’ve made up their minds, 86% support McCain, 84% Obama. Of the 18% who still may change, 14% support McCain at this point, while 16% prefer Obama.
Dems have been oversampled by a lot in VA and NC. That’s the real story.
He's not. The theme for the last 3 days...polls tightening. Look for McCain as I predicted to get within 3 of Obama with the average poll and be DOWN in almost all the critical battleground states. Man this is gonna be epic come election night when McCain wins. Better have plenty of ammunition, roving bands of Obama supporters turning over cars and destroying neighborhoods and America heaving out a collective sigh of relief..."OMG we alamost elected that skinny guy who talks too much." Funny thing is this guy has no shelf life, he loses and he is finished as far as Presidentail politics, this act won't work again.
Actually, I think MOST BLACKS, even the few conservative ones, will vote for Obama, based on race.
OTOH, many older white dems will vote for McCain, based on race.
People around here will forget how bad he has been during the election and start posting his polls as gospel again in the next election — short memories.
Rassmussen also now has McCain up 1 in Florida, things looking bad for Bambi. 49 to 48
Yeah, right! You’ve really got the inside track there, Bobo.
All that inside info, and all you have to do is pound your keyboard all day.
Somebody said that yesterday. I hope you are not blowing smoke. Can you back this up in any way?
Yes, FOX stated McCain up by 2 in Ohio.
Is that true?
what happens if you multiply them? is it equally irrelevant?
I PRAY you are right!
We all need to pray here at FR!
Even you conservative athiests! :-)
We CANNOT AFFORD an Obama presidency!!!
We just CANNOT allow it to happen!
I think NC is safe. But it’s time to invest heavily in VA. There should be at least a 10 day push.
I wish he would pull out of America.
..shhhhhhh. I don’t want to be on the democrat’s end of a Joe Job.
for later
I heard that this morning and never said a peep because the person that told me was from Hillary’s camp and said he is relocating them to WI and MN. When I asked why not PA got told he has a lot of staff there but Rendel doesn’t like Obama so I took it with a grain of salt.
To understand NC, people need to look at the NC polls for 2004. The final RCP average of RCP was off by almost 5% of Bush’s winning margin. The exit polls all said “too close to call”.
NC is a state where Republicans consistently underpoll.
He has never been down
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