Skip to comments.Rasmussen: McCain 49%, Obama 48% in Florida
Posted on 10/20/2008 3:12:43 PM PDT by Chet 99
Election 2008: Florida Presidential Election
McCain 49%, Obama 48% in Florida
Monday, October 20, 2008
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The presidential race in Florida is now essentially even. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds John McCain ahead of Barack Obama 49% to 48%.
Support for the GOP nominee is at the highest level in the past five polls of the state. Last week, Obama held a 51% to 46% lead. He led by seven points in the Fox/Rasmussen poll the week before.
The tighter race in Florida is consistent with national polling, which has tightened up over the past week. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has generally shown Obama up by four or five points nationally during the past week. Prior to that, Obama had consistently enjoyed a five-to-eight point lead.
The match-up is just as close among unaffiliated voters in Florida, with McCain holding a 46% to 45% edge. The Republican now leads 50% to 45% among men, while Obama holds onto a 51% to 48% lead among women (see full demographic crosstabs).
Eighty-five percent (85%) of Florida voters say they are certain who they will vote for in November, while just 15% say there is good chance they can still change their minds.
McCain is viewed favorably by 58% and unfavorably by 41%. Obamas numbers in Florida are 53% favorable, 45% unfavorable.
While voters trust McCain more than Obama overall by a 47% to 45% margin, the candidates are tied at 47% when it comes to trust on the top issue of the economy and jobs. McCain still has the edge on national security, 55% to 41%.
Nearly half of Florida voters (49%) believe Obama does not have the right experience to be president, while 41% say he does have the right experience. However, more than a third (34%) of voters says they would be extremely comfortable with him in office, while 38% say they would not be comfortable at all.
Most voters in Florida (68%) think McCain does have the right experience for the job, compared to just 20% who believe the opposite. Still, just 28% say they would be extremely comfortable with McCain in office, while 31% say they would not be comfortable at all.
Though both candidates have promised to bring real change to Washington, 40% of Florida voters say only Obama is capable of following through on that promise, while just 29% say that of McCain. Another 18% say both of them are capable of bringing real change to the Capitol, while just 9% say neither candidate can.
If faced with one of lifes toughest decisions, 48% of voters in Florida say they would ask McCain for advice, while 45% would turn to Obama.
Eighty-three percent of voters in Florida (83%) say they are extremely interested in the election at this point, while just 1% say they have no interest.
Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John Kerry 52% to 47%. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state.
Rassmussen sure is all over the place on the state polls.
Do you have Ras’ weighting for this? I’m not a member on his site.
They’re garbage. He has one of MO showing McCain down by 5. It is because he does a one day sample. Obama had a big rally on Saturday in MO, so Rasmussen polls a single day. Surprise surprise, Obama has a big night. A reputable pollster does 3 days for this reasons.
His polling weight is +6.7% democrats.
from what I see and know here Mccain will win more than 3 points I say 5 points
For the state ones too? No wonder they’re all screwed. I would have thought he would take into account the demographics of each state.
Party id in 2006 was:
D:36 R:39 I:25
No way is +6.7 Dems going to be representative of reality.
these pollsters have not thought about all the Dems who do not want obama, many independents will go for obama and the undecideds will go for Mccain as they will remember the negative connections
obama will lose here more than Kerry did
How does that 6.7% compare with the past several years?
I’m betting it mysteriously doubled around the first of 2008.
That 6.7% is for his national polling. I am not sure what he uses for his state polling. Each state would be different.
Re#5. Thanks. Frankly, I don’t know if anyone could weight the polls with any confidence this cycle. So many factors, e.g., PUMAs (saw recently a 30% number of Hillary supporters that are not in BO’s camp), Bradley/Wilder effect (amongst democrats and GOP voters are already not going to vote for BO), an invigorated GOP base (the Palin Effect and a genuine fear of BO by many others), Operation Chaos (as to democrat registration numbers in the latter ‘rat primary states) and the fact that the polls were so far off in the last of the democrat primaries where Hillary blew off BO’s doors in PA and the like. Heck, based on the foregoing and anecdotal evidence I see, I think a 1994 redux is possible with, if not similar results, a happy ending for our camp. Time will tell...
I think we need someone with a membership to get the internal numbers.
Remember all the states Hillary won? Methinks most will not go for Obama..