Many think 'Bradley effect' won't hurt Obama

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 10/21/8 | Leslie Fulbright

[SmithL]

In a presidential campaign that has provoked an array of questions about race, one of the most persistent has been whether white people lie to pollsters about whether they would support a black candidate, a theory known as the Bradley effect.

Pundits often discount black candidates' leads in polls, saying support never materializes at the voting booth.

But many political experts say that while racism inevitably will play a role in whether some voters will choose Sen. Barack Obama, white people being surveyed seem to be pretty honest with pollsters about their biases.

The Bradley effect is an idea based on former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley's unsuccessful race for governor of California in 1982. Though a Field Poll showed the African American candidate ahead of his opponent, George Deukmejian, by as much as seven points in the week before the election, Bradley lost the race. Pollsters theorized that some white voters said they would support Bradley but did the opposite once they got into the voting booth.

In this presidential race, in which Obama is ahead of his rival, Sen. John McCain, according to numerous polls, many say they are concerned about racism but not a Bradley effect.

"We are picking up prejudicial sentiment in this race, and there are a core group of people who say they will not vote for Obama because he is black," said pollster John Zogby. "But I think we are in a post-Bradley-effect America. We have honorable bigots. They say they won't vote for him, and then they don't vote for him."

[Mike Darancette]

The “Obama Effect” will hurt Obama.

[stranger and pilgrim]

Surely, Bradley is not the only black politician whose race has been studied by pollsters. What about all the other races? Do we see a similar phenomenon with them?