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Keyword: bradleyeffect

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  • November 8th: Trump +5

    10/25/2016 12:02:59 AM PDT · by Zakeet · 27 replies
    American Thinker ^ | October 25, 2016 | Andrew Grant White
    Conventional wisdom says that Trump's a dead duck, and we all know how prescient is conventional wisdom. Only two weeks left until election and RealClearPolitics (RCP) puts Clinton about 6 points ahead. So confident is Hillary (supposedly) that one newspaper now urges her to divert some from the presidential campaign and help Democrats in Senate and House races. We should be so lucky. Back to the point. Presidential polls are split into two camps: MSM polls and non-MSM polls. They have starkly different characteristics and results. MSM polls come from those you already know, and the companies themselves have already...
  • Some voters embarrassed to admit supporting Trump

    12/28/2015 1:43:54 PM PST · by presidio9 · 105 replies
    Hearst Newspapers ^ | Friday, December 25, 2015 | Kathleen Parker
    The biggest political news is that Donald Trump may be doing even better than polls have suggested. Yikes. Apparently, many Trump supporters have been fibbing to pollsters, saying they’re for someone else when they really intend to vote for The Donald. And those fudging the most are college-educated voters because, it seems, they’re too embarrassed to admit their preference. As well they should be. I’m kidding. Sort of. Imagine it this way: Guy on the phone asks whom you prefer for president. You can say, I really like the bragging, eye-rolling, profane, nativist, misogynist, policy-free billionaire-birther “jerk” (Jeb Bush’s word)....
  • Trump May Be More Popular Than You Think

    12/22/2015 11:57:14 AM PST · by Impala64ssa · 18 replies
    Newser ^ | 12/22/15 | Rob Quinn
    ome Donald Trump supporters are too ashamed to admit it, according to a new study that suggests that his poll numbers may be even higher than GOP strategists think. Researchers at the Morning Consult polling firm say that when they polled almost 2,500 Republican and Republican-leaning voters using a variety of methods last week, they found Trump's support was around 6% higher among those polled online, compared to those who spoke to a live human. His support was 4% higher among those who received automated calls. In what the Los Angeles Times calls the "most telling part of the experiment,"...
  • Gay marriage support hits new high in Post-ABC poll

    03/18/2013 10:54:11 PM PDT · by Pinkbell · 40 replies
    Washington Post ^ | March 18, 2013 | Jon Cohen
    Public support for gay marriage has hit a new high as Americans increasingly see homosexuality not as a choice but as a way some people are, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. The poll shows that 58 percent of Americans now believe it should be legal for gay and lesbian couples to get married; 36 percent say it should be illegal. Public attitudes toward gay marriage are a mirror image of what they were a decade ago: in 2003, 37 percent favored gay nuptials, and 55 percent opposed them. The Supreme Court takes up the issue of gay...
  • The political perfect storm may have already hit the elections

    10/29/2012 6:43:36 AM PDT · by John David Powell · 8 replies
    Digital Journal ^ | Oct. 28, 2012 | John David Powell
    As Big Sandy sets her eyes on New Jersey to deliver Mother Natures October Surprise to the nations east coast, a political perfect storm may have already hit the nation. Unlike Hurricane Sandy whose every move is tracked and then predicted by a host of computer models, this political perfect storm seems to have formed under the radar of daily tracking polls. The week before the presidential election sees the economy topping the list of voter concerns, with jobs, or the lack of them, sitting right in the center, just like a spider. U.S. labor secretary Hilda Solis ( did...
  • Obama is box office poison

    01/23/2010 3:24:19 AM PST · by Scanian · 10 replies · 613+ views
    The American Thinker ^ | January 23, 2010 | Ralph Alter
    Apparently it has never occurred to our political pollsters that Barack Hussein Obama is the Bradley Effect personified. While our floundering POTUS continues to garner approval numbers hovering in the 50% range, his policies are judged much more harshly by polled Americans. The Real Clear Politics average, for instance, reports B.O.'s job approval average at 49.4%. His hand-maidens in Congress however, receive only 24.5 % approval and of those asked about the direction in which our country is going, only 35.9 % believe we are headed down the right path. Just exactly who do they think is holding the steering...
  • Obama's polls

    11/17/2009 3:52:52 AM PST · by Scanian · 20 replies · 1,074+ views
    The American Thinker ^ | November 17, 2009 | Steve McCann
    The political and media world today seems to revolve around polls. A day does not by that we are treated to a poll result of some sort on subjects both timely and inane. This now substitutes, within the mainstream media, for news and real reporting. Notwithstanding the fact that polling can be manipulated (and has shown to be numerous times), the use of these surveys has become a religion within the halls of Congress and the White House, and a justification to pursue agenda items. As a result many point to the still-high job approval rating of President Obama as...
  • It was guns, not race, that affected Bradley

    11/05/2008 4:06:10 PM PST · by neverdem · 2 replies · 847+ views ^ | November 4, 2008 | Joe Mathews
    Nelson Rising, chairman of Tom Bradleys 1982 campaign for California governor, still remembers the phone call. Bradley called him shortly after 4 a.m. on a long Election Night, when it was clear Bradley had lost to Republican George Deukmejian. You were right, Bradley told Rising a bit wearily. With those words, Bradley, the Democratic mayor of Los Angeles, acknowledged that a political mistake had cost him the governorship. And, despite all the theories that the election produced a Bradley effect that could hurt black candidates such as Bradley and, a quarter-century later, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama the...
  • How can the polls be so wrong? The Palin Effect, for one.

    11/03/2008 10:18:50 AM PST · by Jeliota · 32 replies · 1,855+ views
    The American Sentinel ^ | 11/03/08 | Paul Zannucci
    Much has been made in this election regarding the Bradley Effect, where pollsters are told by respondents that they intend to vote for the black candidate so that they dont seem prejudiced, but then they end up voting for the white candidate on election day. Could there be a point or two here? Maybe, but theres another Effect that people arent looking at. What if there is a Palin Effect? What if there are women out there who dont want to seem to be voting for McCain-Palin just because Palin is female, but who will show up and vote for...
  • What is the Bradley Effect? {Truth: the new Intimidation Factor = "Bradley-squared"}

    11/02/2008 3:08:41 PM PST · by JustTheTruth · 30 replies · 1,338+ views
    St. Louis Post-Dispatch ^ | November 2, 2008 | Eric Mink
    So now, in the waning days of the campaign, here is the alleged storyline: Those polls that show Barack Obama leading in the race against John McCain for president? Even widening his lead? Those polls are warped. According to some, among the millions of Americans who are telling pollsters that they could vote for Mr. Obama, there are (thousands of? millions of?) closeted racists who will not vote -- who never would vote -- for a black candidate under any circumstances. Their votes could tip the election to Mr. McCain. In politically obsessed circles, this supposed phenomenon is known as...
  • Five things that keep Democrats up at night

    11/02/2008 2:46:41 PM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 21 replies · 1,813+ views
    The Toronto Star ^ | November 2, 2008 | Tim Harper
    WASHINGTONAn extra hour on the clock? Just another hour for Democrats to toss and turn. On this, their most nervous of weekends with thoughts of Fat Ladies not yet singing, Yogi Berra proclaiming: "It ain't over till it's over" and Dewey beating Truman they received another fright yesterday from Barack Obama's aunt living illegally in Boston. Here are five things that come at Obama supporters in the night: Auntie Zeituni: The Obama campaign said yesterday it would return $260 in campaign donations from Zeituni Onyango, his Kenyan-born aunt who is living illegally in this country. Obama said...
  • Forget About the Bradley Effect. Its the Berkeley Effect that Matters

    11/02/2008 10:49:40 AM PST · by SeekAndFind · 27 replies · 2,367+ views
    Pajamas Media ^ | October 21,2008 | Roger Kimball
    Will racism be a factor in this election? Is the Pope Catholic? Of course racism will be a factor in the contest between Barack Obama and John McCain. After all, somewhere in excess of 95 percent of black voters are expected to pull the lever (or fill in the dot) for Obama on November 4. Thats a statistic any dictator would be proud of. And once Acorn gets through fabricating voter registrations, the number will probably rise to 123 percent, give or take a point. So, yes, racism will likely play a role in the election, but it wont be...
  • The Bradley Effect

    11/02/2008 8:28:12 AM PST · by mimi from mi · 50 replies · 1,092+ views
    How many times do you think we will hear the words "The Bradley Effect" on Tuesday evening as state after state comes in for McCain? The liberal announcers won't dare truthfully admit that the American people simply just don't like Obama's far-left proposed policies, so the Bradley effect will be the scapegoat. I plan on putting a penny in a pot every time I hear "Bradley Effect" on Tuesday, and I'm sure I'll have enough pennies to treat myself and hubby to a steak dinner at a fine restaurant. Any guesses on how many times we will hear Bradley Effect?
  • Truth in actions....why is Obama still campaigning?

    10/30/2008 9:25:30 PM PDT · by richnwise · 11 replies · 582+ views
    There is something to be said about the fact that Obama seems to be campaigning pretty hard for someone who is supposed to be sitting quite comfortably on his cushy poll bean bag and sipping on a fresh glass of media bias right out of the Obama tank. Read this little analysis of what really is going on (at least in the opinion of this analyst):
  • Remember Hilary in the Polls (vanity)

    10/30/2008 1:03:24 PM PDT · by MNDude · 7 replies · 1,094+ views
    I did a Google Search on the Hillary\Obama Polls and actual results:. The polls seem to be biased towards Obama. I imagine they still are. RCP Ohio Poll (Hillary +7) week before Actual Ohio Results (Hillary + 10) Pennsylvania Rassmusen Poll (Hillary +5)April 21 Actual Election results (Hillary +10) April 23
  • Debunking the 'Bradley Effect'

    10/30/2008 11:04:02 AM PDT · by americanophile · 29 replies · 892+ views
    Washington Post ^ | November 2, 2008 | Ken Khachigian
    They call it "the Bradley effect." Pundits and politicians speak of it in ominous tones. It surfaced in New Hampshire in January, when Barack Obama's eight-point lead on the eve of that state's primary dissolved into a shocking come-from-behind victory for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Could it have been the Bradley effect? Chris Matthews of "Hardball" and a host of other talking heads thought so. As Obama continues to hold a lead in the presidential polls against John McCain, the specter of the Bradley effect still haunts the race. It's a reference to the 1982 California governor's race, which Los Angeles...
  • McCain pollster "It will be close"

    10/28/2008 8:12:48 PM PDT · by padre35 · 105 replies · 3,168+ views
    The Hill ^ | 10/28/08 | Sam Youngman
    McInturff said their responses indicate record turnout levels not seen since the elections of 1960 and 1968, which in todays terms, that could mean breaking the barrier of 130 million voters. There is simply no model that begins to know or predict the composition of the electorate at this level of turn-out, he said. My own viewand our own weights in our surveysreflect a belief that African American turn-out will be at historic levels, there will be a significant boost with voters 18 to 29 years old, yet the overall high level of turn-out will begin to mute the increase...
  • Charles Barkley Predicts 'Reverse Bradley Effect'

    10/28/2008 6:41:27 AM PDT · by Rufus2007 · 31 replies · 3,949+ views ^ | October 28, 2008 | Jeff Poor
    Election punditry sometimes comes from strange places. On CNN, it came from a former professional basketball player with a liberal point of view. Charles Barkley, a former NBA most valuable player, who is now an analyst for TNTs basketball coverage appeared on CNNs Oct. 27 Election Center to lend his insight on voter behavior. Barkley noted that polls indicate Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama has a large lead, but said they are useless because the Bradley effect is a real polling phenomenon. I think the polls are absolutely useless, I do, Barkley said. Seriously, most people who are racist,...
  • What Bradley Effect?

    10/27/2008 11:25:56 PM PDT · by neverdem · 31 replies · 1,345+ views
    NY Times ^ | October 20, 2008 | BLAIR LEVIN
    WITH only two weeks to go before the election, talk has turned to the Bradley effect. The phenomenon is named for Tom Bradley, the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, who lost the 1982 California governors race even though exit polls predicted hed defeat his Republican opponent, George Deukmejian. Some white people, the theory goes, tell pollsters they will vote for black candidates and then, once in the voting booth, dont. While its no surprise that this has become a topic of discussion as John McCain and Barack Obama near the finish line, as someone who worked for Bradleys campaign, I...
  • Are Democrats whistling past the Bradley effect graveyard?

    10/27/2008 4:50:16 AM PDT · by jmaroneps37 · 47 replies · 1,863+ views
    The Collins Report ^ | Oct. 27, 2008 | Kevin Coach Collins
    In 1982 Tom Bradley, a competent Black man, was on his way to becoming Californias first Black Governor then he lost. He was a mainstream Democrat that didnt scare anyone with his plans, but his race beat him. Today Barack Obama a Black man is running for president. He has small but definite leads in most polls, but that might be where he and Bradley are different. Looking back, Bradleys race appears to have defeated him. By contrast Obamas plans scare lots of people. The media likes to cite a 3% Bradley factor theyve picked out of the air. They...
  • Blacks worry about polls vs. reality in Obama campaign

    10/26/2008 2:53:46 PM PDT · by truthandlife · 85 replies · 2,333+ views
    Dallas Morning News ^ | 10/26/08 | GROMER JEFFERS Jr.
    he prospect that Barack Obama is primed to be the nation's first black president has black voters giddy. But the better the news gets for Mr. Obama, with bigger leads in polls the closer Election Day draws, the more they fear it's too good to be true. It's especially so in the South, where a history of oppression, voter suppression and near electoral victories make blacks more skeptical than most. "Every day I watch the polls and get excited because I know Barack Obama is going to win the whole thing," said Corgins Banner, a 32-year-old Charlotte man who works...
  • Bradley Effect Bogus?

    10/23/2008 5:13:29 AM PDT · by theothercheek · 21 replies · 555+ views
    The Stiletto Blog ^ | October 22, 2008 | The Stiletto
    Polling data suggests six percent of whites will not vote for Obama because he is black. But early voting trends in eight states suggest that Obama's under-the-radar black voter registration drives and get-out-the-vote efforts will bring this voting bloc to the polls in record numbers. Thus the percentage of voters who will vote for Obama because he is black will be greater than the percentage of voters who will not vote for Obama because he is black - a "reverse" Bradley Effect. Read more here.
  • Many think 'Bradley effect' won't hurt Obama

    10/21/2008 7:29:32 AM PDT · by SmithL · 41 replies · 973+ views
    San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 10/21/8 | Leslie Fulbright
    In a presidential campaign that has provoked an array of questions about race, one of the most persistent has been whether white people lie to pollsters about whether they would support a black candidate, a theory known as the Bradley effect. Pundits often discount black candidates' leads in polls, saying support never materializes at the voting booth. But many political experts say that while racism inevitably will play a role in whether some voters will choose Sen. Barack Obama, white people being surveyed seem to be pretty honest with pollsters about their biases. The Bradley effect is an idea based...
  • Will closet racism derail Obama?

    10/20/2008 2:30:21 PM PDT · by Zakeet · 49 replies · 888+ views
    BBC ^ | October 20, 2008 | Laura Smith-Spark
    Two decades ago, Douglas Wilder watched as a 9% lead in the polls going into Virginia's gubernatorial election slipped to just one-tenth of 1% when the ballots were counted.He still won the election - becoming the first African-American to be elected a US state governor - but the narrowness of his victory led analysts to speculate that he had been a victim of a white hesitancy to vote for a black man. The theory goes that some white voters tell opinion pollsters they will vote for a black candidate - but then, in the privacy of the polling booth, put...
  • Vera Baker Obama's Secret Girlfriend - Bradley Effect?

    10/15/2008 3:57:21 AM PDT · by IrishMike · 49 replies · 7,542+ views
    The Post Chronicle ^ | Oct 13, 2008 | Mitch Marconi
    Is the lovable charismatic Barack Obama hiding the fact that he has a girlfriend? Or is he the victim of the 'Bradley Effect?' Rumors are swarming that Obama has committed adultery on Michelle Obama with a woman by the name Vera Baker. Vera baker is a staffer who worked for Barack Obama during his run for the United States Senate in 2004. Rumor has it that Michelle Obama was complaining about the supposed close friendship between Barack Obama and Vera Baker and before the public knew it, she was transferred to work at the Caribbean on the island of Martinique....
  • California poll on Prop. 8 could show 'Bradley effect'

    10/09/2008 9:07:58 PM PDT · by SmithL · 23 replies · 1,501+ views
    Sacramento Bee ^ | 10/9/8 | Aurelio Rojas
    When the latest Field Poll showed Proposition 8 losing by 17 points, skeptical supporters of the measure that would ban same-sex marriage in California invoked a phrase coined in the 1980s: "the Bradley effect." Named after the late Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African American who lost the 1982 California governor's race after polls showed him leading handily, the phrase refers to the tendency of respondents to lie to pollsters about issues of race. The Bradley effect has been referenced in presidential polls this year as Sen. Barack Obama seeks to become the first black president. And it is...
  • Polls Rocketing for Obama, But, Could Racism Undermine Nov. 4?

    10/08/2008 5:08:04 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 53 replies · 1,391+ views
    U. S. Sen. Barack Obama has moved yet another step closer to becoming Americas first Black president after an arguably bland debate Monday night that gave him strong leads over Sen. John McCain in several key polls. But, some political observers say the polls may not reflect a racial ...
  • Will Obama run into a 'Bradley effect' at the polls?

    10/06/2008 6:07:02 PM PDT · by lasereye · 52 replies · 1,699+ views ^ | 10/6/08 | Russ Britt
    LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) - It's a question that comes up whenever anyone of African-American descent is a candidate for office, and this year is no exception: is the so-called "Bradley effect" going to play a role in the 2008 presidential race? Many pollsters doubt it, and think there's an even more fundamental question to be asked - whether there ever was such a phenomenon. If there was, they seriously doubt that with all the time that has passed since the late Tom Bradley lost a close gubernatorial race in California 26 years ago - despite being ahead in late polls...
  • Anyone Noticing The Bogus Polls That Are Intentionally Oversampling Blacks?

    10/06/2008 4:53:15 PM PDT · by Laissez-faire capitalist · 33 replies · 1,066+ views
    10/6/2008 | Laissez-Faire Capitalist
    Has anyone been paying attention to the bogus polls that are intentionally adding in blacks to the tally of surveved voters to apparently increase Obama's percentage in said polls? 1.) Here's one such poll: From The ABC News/Washington Post poll: "This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 27-29, 2008, among a randon sample of 1,271 adults, including an oversample of African Americans weighted to their correct share of the national population, for a total of 165 black respondents." There is no need to increase the number of blacks into this poll or any poll, because over time...
  • Networks Nervous Over Election Night Exit Polls

    10/03/2008 1:16:16 PM PDT · by John W · 60 replies · 1,864+ views
    MSNBC ^ | October 3, 2008 | AP
    Polling place surveys frequently overstated Obama vote during primaries NEW YORK - Barack Obamas tendency through the Democratic primaries to perform better in exit polls than he actually does at the ballot box has some media organizations nervous heading into Election Night. Television networks want to avoid having their performance become an issue for the third straight presidential election. Their political experts hope that experience gained during the primaries will help things run smoothly Nov. 4.
  • Polling Methods May Tilt Obama Results, Exec Says

    09/22/2008 5:18:34 PM PDT · by Publius804 · 58 replies · 149+ views ^ | September 17, 2008 | Ron Kessler
    Polling Methods May Tilt Obama Results, Exec Says Wednesday, September 17, 2008 7:31 PM By: Ron Kessler Most polls may be overstating Barack Obamas support by 5 to 10 percentage points because those surveyed may not be telling the truth about voting for him, ad executive Gabe Joseph III tells Newsmax. It is possible that, when live callers ask for a respondents name, the individual is more likely to say he will vote for Obama, says Joseph, president of ccAdvertising, which conducts polls for a range of candidates and members of Congress. When automated dialers do the polling, respondents are...
  • Race Matters: Obama and the Bradley Effect

    09/11/2008 10:41:44 AM PDT · by AJKauf · 45 replies · 196+ views
    Pajamas Media ^ | September 11, 2008 | Stephen Green
    Is the Bradley Effect evenly distributed, or does it vary by state or region? My guess again, just a guess is that it varies, and maybe pretty widely. Counterintuitively, perhaps, Id say theres less of an effect in the South. People there deal with race (not ahem always very successfully) almost every day, and in ways the rest of the country never had to. And frankly Id expect a southerner to be more willing on average to tell a pollster exactly what he or she really thinks. In liberal bastions like California and New York, the...
  • Robert Novak: Deepening Democratic Dilemma - The Bradley Effect

    04/23/2008 10:07:26 PM PDT · by The_Republican · 33 replies · 134+ views
    Real Clear Politics ^ | April 23rd, 2008 | Robert Novak
    Prominent Democrats only whisper when they compare Obama, the first African-American with a serious chance to be president, with what happened to Los Angeles' black Mayor Tom Bradley a quarter of a century ago. Exit polls in 1982 showed Bradley ahead for governor of California, but he actually lost to Republican George Deukmejian. Pollster John Zogby (who correctly predicted Clinton's double-digit win Tuesday) said what practicing Democrats would not. "I think voters face-to-face are not willing to say they would oppose an African-American candidate," Zogby told me.The escape route from this dilemma only a few months ago seemingly was indicated...
  • On the Lookout for the 'Bradley Effect'

    01/11/2008 8:19:40 PM PST · by neverdem · 10 replies · 115+ views ^ | January 11, 2008 | Eugene Robinson
    WASHINGTON -- Pollsters and pundits were quick to discount race and the so-called "Bradley effect" as factors in Barack Obama's narrow loss to Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary. Given that the same pollsters and pundits (OK, me too) were so wrong about the outcome, I think we ought to take a closer look. The phenomenon is named after the late Tom Bradley, who in 1982 seemed certain to become the first black governor of California. Pre-election polls showed Bradley, the mayor of Los Angeles, with a double-digit lead over his white opponent, George Deukmejian. But Bradley lost. Subsequently,...