Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

BROAD DISPARITIES IN VOTES AND POLLS RAISING QUESTIONS (Bradley Effect)
NY Times ^ | November 9, 1989

Posted on 10/25/2008 4:32:57 PM PDT by Chet 99

November 9, 1989

THE 1989 ELECTIONS: PREDICTING THE OUTCOME; BROAD DISPARITIES IN VOTES AND POLLS RAISING QUESTIONS

By ANDREW ROSENTHAL, SPECIAL TO THE NEW YORK TIMES

LEAD: Voter surveys for the elections Tuesday in Virginia and New York City produced widely divergent and largely inaccurate results, leaving poll takers divided over whether the survey methods were flawed or people simply lied about voting for a black candidate to avoid seeming biased.

Voter surveys for the elections Tuesday in Virginia and New York City produced widely divergent and largely inaccurate results, leaving poll takers divided over whether the survey methods were flawed or people simply lied about voting for a black candidate to avoid seeming biased.

The polls projected far greater margins of victory for black candidates in two major races than they actually received. The inaccuracies have provoked a renewed debate over the touchy issue of news organizations' use of election surveys, and they illustrate the difficulty of accounting for racial attitudes in campaign opinion research.

In New York, polls made public the day before the mayoral election gave David N. Dinkins leads of 14 percentage points (by The Daily News with WABC-TV) to 18 points (by The New York Observer). His actual margin of victory over Rudolph W. Giuliani was about 2 percentage points.

(Excerpt) Read more at query.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-43 next last

1 posted on 10/25/2008 4:32:57 PM PDT by Chet 99
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Chet 99

Here it comes - Obama loss due to racism.


2 posted on 10/25/2008 4:34:38 PM PDT by skeeter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99

Is it just possible that Americans are not voting for Obozo because they don’t trust him and he is inexperienced???


3 posted on 10/25/2008 4:34:50 PM PDT by Recovering Ex-hippie (Conservatives are in an ideological, cultural/ class war with the Great Victim Entitlement Society)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99

This is exactly what I posted in 1989.


4 posted on 10/25/2008 4:36:18 PM PDT by skeeter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All

Personally, I don’t CARE why people vote against him. If it takes idiots in pointy hats to keep this evil, Marxist piece of zhit out of the White House, so be it...


5 posted on 10/25/2008 4:36:51 PM PDT by Maverick68 (w)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: skeeter
"Here it comes - Obama loss due to racism. "

I don't care...so long as he LOSES!
6 posted on 10/25/2008 4:37:27 PM PDT by FrankR (Liberalism is communism, by the drink. O'Rourke)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99

Given all the people who have been threatened and intimidated by Barack Obama supporters, if somebody were to call my house out of the blue and asks me who I am going to vote for, I might be tempted to say Obama, out of fear that they are merely making a list of people to target.

I would be tempted for about a second... And then I would tell them that I am voting for McCain, and they can go to Hell!


7 posted on 10/25/2008 4:37:30 PM PDT by gridlock (I root for the New York Yankees. I have had just about enough of "Losing With Class".)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99

I applaud the principle of being able to csst a “secret ballot.”

Poor, pitiful pollsters — they can’t see my ballot, and they have to take my word for it. ha ha


8 posted on 10/25/2008 4:38:03 PM PDT by i_dont_chat (The elephant is dancing for the lady from Alaska)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FrankR
I don't care...so long as he LOSES!

Exactly. If they want to riot, deal with it then.

9 posted on 10/25/2008 4:39:32 PM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99
These people are also discounting the "Liberman effect", where a liberal candidate benefited in the party primary and lost the general election - to the candidate he beat in the primary.

Not to mention the "Sarah Palin" effect, where people are going to say they will vote for the Democrat but end up voting for the self-made everywoman in the election.

Not to mention the "Joe the Plumber" effect, where people are going to think long and hard about what will happen to their personal tax bill when their wealth is being spread around.

It's just a question of whether it's the same voter affected by all the effects, or different voters each with their own reason to confound the experts.

10 posted on 10/25/2008 4:39:45 PM PDT by Bernard (If you always tell the truth, you never have to remember exactly what you said.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99

Maybe it’s the pollsters who are incompetent — or crooked.


11 posted on 10/25/2008 4:40:33 PM PDT by BenLurkin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: i_dont_chat

2010 no more secret ballot.


12 posted on 10/25/2008 4:43:34 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (Who would the terrorists vote for?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99

Racism will NOT EVER be the reason for the demise of Obama. It’s his policies....duhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh....


13 posted on 10/25/2008 4:47:11 PM PDT by SumProVita ("Cogito ergo sum pro vita." .....updated Descartes)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99
I'd like to do a premptive strike on something that is probably going to happen tomorrow. Arizona has one major newspaper. It's a commie rag called the Arizona People's Republic. The Obamacorns who "work" for the People's Republic love controversy. The paper is so leftist that they can't even sell it anywhere in the state except where there is large concentrations of Communists. It is now down to the size of a large comic book.

This rag is about to endorse their "messiah," Barack Hussein Obama. So, when this is NATIONAL "NEWS", don't be surprised.

Arizona has 8 House seats. The People's Republic already has endorsed 6 Nazi Pelosi 'RATS. Only two Republicans. The Arizona Republic IS NOT a conservative newspaper. It's a Commie rag that no one in this state reads.

The Arizona People's Republic is recommending that the voters vote AGAINST the Marriage amendement, Prop 102. The Amendment will only change our constitution to read that marriage is between a male and a female. The Arizona Republic doesn't like that idea. THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC IS NOT A CONSERVATIVE newspaper.

Finally, the Arizona People's Republic has endorsed Sheriff Joe Arpaio's DEMOCRATIK opponent since this opponent does not agree with Sheriff Joe rounding up illegals and shipping them home to Central and South America.

When the MSM pops this EID on McCain/Palin (probably tomorrow), just remember. THE ARIZONA PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC IS A LEFTIST RAG AND IS NOT A CONSERVATIVE NEWSPAPER.

14 posted on 10/25/2008 4:48:02 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (I'm voting for McCain/Palin so I can look my grandchildren in the eyes when I tell them I'm sorry.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99

The best thing about this being brought up now and starting to make into the public conciousness:

THERE F’N GAME IS UP. DIDN’T WORK ASSWIPES. NOBODY NOWHERE HAS ANY CONFIDENCE IN YOUR “INEVITABILITY” BULLSHIT NO MORE. HA!


15 posted on 10/25/2008 4:52:35 PM PDT by SaintDismas (Starting to regret the handle I chose for this forum)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99
I Just Got Polled By the CBS News/NY Times
16 posted on 10/25/2008 4:53:58 PM PDT by Ziva (McCain could never make me vote for him... but Obama can.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FrankR

Well, I’m white and lemme say this.
This election has brought out some serious racist thoughts I didn’t know I possessed, but after hearing BHO, Rev. Wright, Louis Farrakan, etc., and having the MSM FORCE this candidate upon America and screaming that we are racist if we do not elect him, I am just SOOOO FED UP with all of it!

I’m feeling very angry and don’t give a CRAP whether or not any black person thinks I’m racist or not. I do not care and I’m starting to develop a REAL ATTITUDE. I’m hearing this a lot from my friends as well.

THis election has also driven a wedge between me and the black friends I thought I had. They have turned cold toward me when they’ve discovered I won’t vote for BHO.

He has DIVIDED this nation even more. We are fearful and very, VERY angry and the election is not even over.


17 posted on 10/25/2008 4:54:05 PM PDT by a real Sheila (McCain is Obama, lite!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: a real Sheila

Don’t be superficial. That is what the enemy wants you to be.

This is about black hearts, not brown skin.


18 posted on 10/25/2008 4:55:15 PM PDT by unspun (Pray and Work! http://www.etpv.org/whatsnew.html)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: Chet 99

I was polled by Rasmussen’s computer this afternoon. Stupid me, pushed the wrong key on my cell phone and said I was voting for 0bama. Got all the others right, but I missed the big questions. So its my fault if 0bama is ahead in Arizona. ;-)


19 posted on 10/25/2008 4:55:19 PM PDT by SubMareener (Become a monthly donor! Free FreeRepublic.com from Quarterly FReepathons!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wequalswinner

THERE=THEIR Sorry


20 posted on 10/25/2008 4:55:22 PM PDT by SaintDismas (Starting to regret the handle I chose for this forum)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-43 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson