Posted on 10/26/2008, 1:57:35 AM by LS
A little over two months ago, not only were the Obamas measuring the drapes for the White House, all the One's followers were anticipating what they'd get in their "swag-bag" when he won the White House. Their mortgages paid off? New student aid? All workplaces unionized?
Don't look now, but (shhhhhh) . . . the Messiah may well lose this little election.
Pollsters have slavishly reported survey after survey based on some mythical "turnout model" relying on "new voters," demonstrated in the "early voting."
Oops. Colorado's early voting showed a Republican advantage. Florida's early voting, so far, has produced a whopping 900-vote Democrat lead. Karl Rove estimated that Florida Republicans on election day are good for a much higher turnout. The numbers I'm hearing are a McCain win in FL of 10 points. Ah, maybe more.
More important, everywhere "early voting" is taking place, the pollsters' assumptions were that all these people would be checking the Obama box. Not so fast.
It appears Obama is supremely (pun, there) UNpopular with Jews; he's fading fast among Catholics; and we haven't even gotten to the infamous "Bradley Effect" yet.
National Review's Jim Geraghty has a source known as "Obi Wan," who has noted that the entire Obama strategy was to build up the perception that the race was over long ago. He cautioned that the first poll to show the race tied, or McCain ahead, would cause no end of problems for this strategy.
Even with their oversampling of Dems, pollsters Gallup, Zogby, IBD, and Battleground now are slowly locking into a 2-4 point race, and steadily trending up. Nevertheless, the drive-bys continue to tout whatever outlier they can find in a given news cycle---Quinnipiac, New York Times, whomever---that will render the shock headline of "Obama With Double-Digit Lead."
Except it ain't happenin'. At the state levels, for several weeks we've seen very close races. With early voting, they now are giving us evidence of what we've already suspected, namely that Obama would be extremely lucky to pick off any of the red states outside of NM and perhaps IA. Yet even there it's close, and McCain is spending a lot of time with those ethanol farmers.
No doubt McCain stumbled with the bailout bill, and he still gets tagged every time the Dow dives. But he has two not-so-secret weapons: the vice presidential candidates. Sarah Palin, for all the scorn heaped on her by the drive-by media and leftists, is simply the hottest thing in politics (take that as you wish). She is every bit the celebrity "draw" that the Messiah is, with half the adoring media to gin up crowds. And she's being restrained by the Maverick, or she could probably pack Texas Stadium or the Rose Bowl.
McCain's other not-so-secret weapon is Joe Biden, who has succeeded in scaring the bejeezus out of everyone even paying a whit of attention to world affairs. He essentially yelled "SHARK" in a beach full of swimmers, and people immediately started looking for the lifeguard. Somehow, the Anointed One wasn't at his station.
Ten days is a lifetime in politics---remember George Bush's DUI revelation on the last weekend of the 2000 election?---but only a member of the DNC, the drive-by media, or ACORN (well, I guess they're the same) could fail to see the trend that is at hand.
And when there are no swag-bags after the election, all the minions who have been slavishly lapping up the lies of the drive-by pollsters are going to lash out. It won't be pretty, and, unfortunately, will likely be quite violent.
And when the smoke clears, if President John McCain is half the president he was naval officer, he'll demand answers from these deplorable toadies. (Do we still have yardarms?)
PS: The Ohio GOP successfully pressed Secretary of State Brunner into making revisions in the “early voting” procedures. I’m hearing from the state GOP sources it’s a win for us.
Thanks for the bit of good news.
Swag is about all Obama amounts to. Providing a bag would be overkill.
Details on Brunner and what she’s doing now?
When my wife was a young girl, she went to Mexico with her family. Her father (at least I hope it was dad and not her mom) bought her and her two sisters purses made from armadillo skins. She refers to that hideous purse as the Skagbag. Maybe that’s what Obummer will be giving his Obummamaniacs!
Bump to what you said!
LOL. Word is, she did some polling of her own, and it wasn’t pretty. I also suspect that Ted Strickland, who has been a good governor, knocked on her door a couple of times and said, “Quit!”
Where are you getting your poll numbers? Today’s gallup has McCain down by 8, Zogby has him down by 9.5. IBD has him down by 3.9 in today’s poll, and I couldn’t find a Battleground poll for today.
Gotta believe that we have counterparts in Pa or Ohio where it'll matter more.
This race is turning. Stay focused, dig in your heels and fight like hell.
Thanks for your post.
excellent post! Bravo!
Now, if this gateway pundit story would just get out and embarass the LA Times into releasing this video:
Confirmed: MSM Holds Video Of Barack Obama Attending Jew-Bash & Toasting a Former PLO Operative... Refuse to Release the Video (LA Times)
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/10/confirmed-msm-holds-video-of-barack.html
BTW. when you go to Khalidi's website you find out that not only did this toast take place but Ayers and Dohrn were there at the same party and this was in 2003... so much for I was only 8 years old crap...
Drudge has a new Zogs up. I think it’s 3. Battleground has been 3-4 all week. IBD was 1, now back to 3.9 (MOE). Gallup has three versions. Look at “traditional.” They all oversample Dems, but it’s the least bad.
Great. Thanks.
Very good analysis! You are right that everything from the Obama camp has been based on the race is already over but they forgot conservatives can be a stubborn lot and we don’t like being told our vote doesn’t count. Guess they forget what happened during the Florida fiasco with rallies around the Country. We didn’t riot but we sure were not going to allow Gore to steal Florida.
Yes but Zogby’s daily track sample had it at 3 today, IBD at just under 4. I think the polls will tighten dramatically in the next 10 days.
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