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Corroboration of the Hillbuzz poll info from NYPost
NY Post ^ | October 25, 2008 | Nate Silver

Posted on 10/25/2008 9:28:20 PM PDT by WKL815

McCain's (Long) Road to Electoral Win

1. Abandon Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa.

2) Attack New Hampshire and New Mexico.

3) Defend Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina.

(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Colorado; US: Nevada; US: North Carolina; US: Ohio; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; electoral; hillbuzz; mccain; poll; virginiavirtucon
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Also posted at Hotair
1 posted on 10/25/2008 9:28:20 PM PDT by WKL815
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To: WKL815

Also, McCain/Palin is going to win.


2 posted on 10/25/2008 9:29:25 PM PDT by WKL815 (If the phrase "personal responsibility" makes you defensive, you may be a liberal.)
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To: WKL815

I don’t see the point in abandoning PA now with 9 days to go after putting so much into it.


3 posted on 10/25/2008 9:31:08 PM PDT by SMCC1
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To: WKL815

Out of PA, WI, MN, and MI, I expect McCain to pick up at least one.


4 posted on 10/25/2008 9:31:27 PM PDT by conservativefromGa
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To: WKL815

McCain doesn’t even NEED NM, NH, and Iowa. If he can keep Nevada, Virginia, and Colorado, he wins.


5 posted on 10/25/2008 9:32:02 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: WKL815
Going after NH only helps if either (a) they pick up 1 EV from the congressional district in ME or (b) they take PA. Otherwise, NH is wasted effort.

Holding onto NM allows a loss in CO. Makes more sense if they feel they are close enough in NM.

6 posted on 10/25/2008 9:32:11 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: WKL815

They forgot Florida.


7 posted on 10/25/2008 9:32:39 PM PDT by babydubya1981 (Homeschooling Moms for McCain/Palin 08)
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To: SMCC1

I agree. Except for abandoning PA, the advice seemed spot on to me.

We had another thread in from Hillbuzz in which a statistician for a major polling co. engaged by campaigns estimated O’s chances of carrying PA at only 55%. That seems worth the effort.


8 posted on 10/25/2008 9:33:41 PM PDT by The_Reader_David (For real change stop electing lawyers: Fighter-Pilot/Hockey-Mom '08.)
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To: WKL815

I am pulling for a PA win.


9 posted on 10/25/2008 9:33:50 PM PDT by WKL815 (If the phrase "personal responsibility" makes you defensive, you may be a liberal.)
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To: The_Reader_David

That was the blogpost I referred to in the title. I was jazzed about it and then more so when I saw the NYPost article talking about the exact same thing the pollster said re: NH and NM.


10 posted on 10/25/2008 9:35:46 PM PDT by WKL815 (If the phrase "personal responsibility" makes you defensive, you may be a liberal.)
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To: WKL815

Me too! (Prayer works.) ;-)


11 posted on 10/25/2008 9:35:55 PM PDT by SumProVita ("Cogito ergo sum pro vita." .....updated Descartes)
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To: WKL815
unnh.

beginning to get the heebie-jeebies......I am falling back upon the comfort that the pollsters are biased morons....

12 posted on 10/25/2008 9:36:22 PM PDT by bitt (I AM Sarah Palin.)
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To: WKL815

Perhaps they are counting on Jack “Redneck” Murtha to carry PA for McCain-Palin.


13 posted on 10/25/2008 9:41:26 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: snarkytart

OK. Just got through playing with the RCP map. If we win all the Bush states but don’t win IA, NM, or NH, even if we win CO, we can’t win. Somebody help me out here.


14 posted on 10/25/2008 9:43:03 PM PDT by SaintDismas (Starting to regret the handle I chose for this forum)
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To: bitt

I agree with 3) but don’t agree that McCain should abandon PA (2 weeks ago via Strategic Vision he was 14 points down; now he is 7 points down with 9 days of campaigning left); he definitely should go after NH with a vengeance but abandon NM-it looks like a lost cause.


15 posted on 10/25/2008 9:43:47 PM PDT by techno
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To: wequalswinner
If McCain takes all Bush takes except IA and NM, he would end up with 274 EVs.

What total do you have? BTW, Bush did not take NH in 2004.

16 posted on 10/25/2008 9:44:37 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: CatOwner

Correct!


17 posted on 10/25/2008 9:45:45 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: wequalswinner

OK, I’m retarded. They had ND in a toss up category. Shit the bed, that’s what’s retarded.


18 posted on 10/25/2008 9:46:28 PM PDT by SaintDismas (Starting to regret the handle I chose for this forum)
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To: conservativefromGa

It will be racist redneck PA.


19 posted on 10/25/2008 9:48:33 PM PDT by mombrown1 (PA Coordinatior SAS The Second Amendment is the reset button for the Constitution)
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To: wequalswinner

For crying out loud, they had MT in the toss up category too! Just damn.


20 posted on 10/25/2008 9:48:55 PM PDT by SaintDismas (Starting to regret the handle I chose for this forum)
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To: CatOwner; wequalswinner

And NH likes McCain. And yes, I think PA is doable thanks to Murtha and bitter gun-clinging religious people. My post was not meant to convey an acceptance of the “strategy” outlined. Merely a corroboration of previously posted info on polling from non-MSM sources.


21 posted on 10/25/2008 9:48:55 PM PDT by WKL815 (If the phrase "personal responsibility" makes you defensive, you may be a liberal.)
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To: WKL815
McCain is not going to abandon Pennsylvania. McCain-Palin are scheduled for 5 events in PA in the next three days alone.
22 posted on 10/25/2008 9:49:00 PM PDT by AHerald ("Be faithful to God ... do not bother about the ridicule of the foolish." - St. Pio of Pietrelcina)
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To: WKL815

Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa may not be doable, but I think Pennsylvania may go his way. With Florida, Virginia, NH and North Carolina those three.

Palin is going into hostile territory on Sunday when she goes to Ashville, NC. McCain will not pick up too many votes within the city. The suburbs around Ashville should favor him and I hope a lot of those people will show up and work to get the vote out for him.


23 posted on 10/25/2008 9:49:44 PM PDT by truthluva ("Character is doing the right thing even when no one is looking" - JC Watts)
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To: WKL815

Unless something drastic changes you can count on it.

Don’t believe any of the polls. Many lean to the dems when polling.


24 posted on 10/25/2008 9:50:12 PM PDT by mombrown1 (PA Coordinatior SAS The Second Amendment is the reset button for the Constitution)
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To: WKL815
Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa may not be doable, but I think Pennsylvania may go his way. With Florida, Virginia, NH and North Carolina those three may not be as important. Sorry, I left this part out before.
25 posted on 10/25/2008 9:51:57 PM PDT by truthluva ("Character is doing the right thing even when no one is looking" - JC Watts)
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To: mombrown1

I like your tagline! My husband and I just bought our first reset button with two more planned. ;)


26 posted on 10/25/2008 9:52:32 PM PDT by WKL815 (If the phrase "personal responsibility" makes you defensive, you may be a liberal.)
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To: techno

No way should McCain abandoned PA — the campaign knows what they are doing and why would they listen to the media?


27 posted on 10/25/2008 9:53:09 PM PDT by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER -- VOTE FOR McCAIN/PALIN2008! LetsGetThisRight.com)
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To: PhiKapMom

If McCain somehow wins in PA, please let him also win in NH. That would give McCain several Electoral options in this election.


28 posted on 10/25/2008 9:56:18 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: CatOwner

nothing is a wasted effort.....


29 posted on 10/25/2008 9:59:42 PM PDT by cherry
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To: truthluva

Do you happen to know how many of these states have 10% or more undecided voters?

I believe those people are the key to most states. As long as McCain/Palin keep up an overall partriotic message and conservative drumbeat - lower taxes, greater accountability for Wall Street thieves, and no fudging on national security - the Republicans will win this election with greater than 54% of the vote totals.


30 posted on 10/25/2008 10:01:12 PM PDT by SatinDoll (NO FOREIGN NATIONALS AS OUR PRESIDENT!!)
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To: cherry

Taking NH doesn’t help McCain unless he also takes PA or 1 EV from ME. I sure hope he takes PA and NH. But neither of the two scenarios occur, taking NH will not make a difference in this election.


31 posted on 10/25/2008 10:02:30 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: cherry

despite and/or in spite of the driveby medias’ constant diatribe for barry hussein soetoro obama, and the huge money advantage from illegal sources,I BELIEVE MCCAIN WILL WIN....


32 posted on 10/25/2008 10:03:04 PM PDT by cherry
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To: WKL815

McCain can win by criticizing Obama on Wright, Cone and Black Liberation Theology. It will swing things around 5 to 10 points. There is no downside, since you cant be called a racist for calling out a racist.

People will be repulsed by the truth. This is the Democrat’s and MSM’s Mark Foley scandal. They are covering it up and supporting this conman.


33 posted on 10/25/2008 10:08:21 PM PDT by igoramus08 (Under Obama 100% of Americans will have a Tax Increase when the Bush Tax cuts expire in 2011)
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To: bitt

This’ll get you going to bed feeling better about things:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2115325/posts?page=2#2


34 posted on 10/25/2008 10:12:28 PM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (You MUST see this website: http://www.neverfindout.org/)
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To: igoramus08
Obama has saturated the ad markets in many states. McCain does not have enough money to compete.

Also, these charges can be countered and neutralized by a fawning media.

A much better tactic would be to warn the populace of the impending problem of a liberal stranglehold on the government, and the forfeiture of checks and balances.

35 posted on 10/25/2008 10:15:18 PM PDT by nwrep
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To: WKL815

This advice is dumb. They’re assuming that from their public polls that they know more than the campaign does.

Let me put it this way. Zero has scrambled to do 2 events in PA next week. Why? I thought he was cruising to 400EVs, right? Yet, he’s campaigning in the blue states of NH and PA. Sure seems strange to me.

And these idiots would have McCain just abandon PA? How moronic. Thankfully they’re writing for newspapers and not running campaigns.


36 posted on 10/25/2008 10:16:33 PM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (You MUST see this website: http://www.neverfindout.org/)
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To: bigbob

I find it interesting that Biden and Hillary have campaigned in Scranton to help Kanjorski. And they have been spending much time around Pittsburgh because Allegheny County seems to be sewn up for McCain.

McCain/Palin rallied in Washington County, PA, Scranton for Barletta CD10 ; Bethlehem for Dent CD 15 (not that that is in contention); Yardley for Manion CD8; Media for Williams CD 7; Johnstown for Russell CD 12; Beaver for Hart CD 4; and will be at State College this week - the exact center of the state. They have also been in York and now that I think about it almost every region of the state of PA.

O and B have essentially ignored most of the state except Scranton, Philly, and Pittsburgh. Remember PA, except for Philly is filled with Reagan Democrats and plenty of pro-life and pro-gun voters.

And Murtha inserting foot in his mouth has been a gift.


37 posted on 10/25/2008 10:26:37 PM PDT by mombrown1 (PA Coordinatior SAS The Second Amendment is the reset button for the Constitution)
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To: bitt

......I am falling back upon the comfort that the pollsters are biased morons....
***Now we can make money from the inaccuracies in the polls.

Intrade has Contracts for Beating the Spread on Polling Numbers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2115426/posts


38 posted on 10/25/2008 10:28:00 PM PDT by Kevmo (I love that sound and please let that baby keep on crying. ~Sarah Palin)
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To: WKL815

Whether PUMA’s or bloggers, they would be better off spending time going door to door to let people know what each candidate is really for.


39 posted on 10/25/2008 10:33:27 PM PDT by unspun (Pray and Work! http://www.etpv.org/whatsnew.html)
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To: WKL815

Good for you. Buy plenty of ammo while you’re at it.


40 posted on 10/25/2008 10:34:15 PM PDT by mombrown1 (PA Coordinatior SAS The Second Amendment is the reset button for the Constitution)
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To: perfect_rovian_storm

I agree. You are spot on.


41 posted on 10/25/2008 10:34:21 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: AHerald

He’s also hitting the red conservative areas of Virginia. Just needs to add Norfolk.


42 posted on 10/25/2008 10:35:40 PM PDT by mombrown1 (PA Coordinatior SAS The Second Amendment is the reset button for the Constitution)
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To: wequalswinner

Sorry, but you’re wrong. Here - I’ll help you out:

Bush 2004 = 286 EVs

Bush added NM and IA to his totals in 2004 but lost NH from 2000.

286 - IA (7) - NM (5) = 274* (enough to win)

NH (4) would make it 278.


43 posted on 10/25/2008 10:45:12 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: CatOwner

If McCain wins PA he will win NH, too.


44 posted on 10/25/2008 10:49:17 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: perfect_rovian_storm

“This’ll get you going to bed feeling better about things:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2115325/posts?page=2#2";

That’s pretty true,...

BUT then I read THIS!!!!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2115471/posts

Now I’m up all night. :)


45 posted on 10/25/2008 11:15:58 PM PDT by bitt (I AM Sarah Palin.)
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To: Kevmo

I’m willing to take that bet!

Thanks, good thread!


46 posted on 10/25/2008 11:19:44 PM PDT by bitt (I AM Sarah Palin.)
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To: conservativefromGa

McCain is strong in PA....even in normally blue Pittsburgh.


47 posted on 10/26/2008 12:01:47 AM PDT by Emperor Palpatine ("Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.)
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To: WKL815

THIS IS GARBAGE NONSENSE!


48 posted on 10/26/2008 2:18:01 AM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: AmericaUnited
You should read before shouting at me. I'll repost from down the thread expressly to you:

And NH likes McCain. And yes, I think PA is doable thanks to Murtha and bitter gun-clinging religious people. My post was not meant to convey an acceptance of the “strategy” outlined. Merely a corroboration of previously posted info on polling from non-MSM sources.

49 posted on 10/26/2008 1:00:55 PM PDT by WKL815 (If the phrase "personal responsibility" makes you defensive, you may be a liberal.)
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To: WKL815
The notion that McCain is going to win Pennsylvania is folly.

The article YOU POSTED is garbage, and hence my response was to it. What's not to understand about that?

50 posted on 10/26/2008 1:24:35 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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