Skip to comments.Corroboration of the Hillbuzz poll info from NYPost
Posted on 10/25/2008 9:28:20 PM PDT by WKL815
McCain's (Long) Road to Electoral Win
1. Abandon Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa.
2) Attack New Hampshire and New Mexico.
3) Defend Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Also, McCain/Palin is going to win.
I don’t see the point in abandoning PA now with 9 days to go after putting so much into it.
Out of PA, WI, MN, and MI, I expect McCain to pick up at least one.
McCain doesn’t even NEED NM, NH, and Iowa. If he can keep Nevada, Virginia, and Colorado, he wins.
Holding onto NM allows a loss in CO. Makes more sense if they feel they are close enough in NM.
They forgot Florida.
I agree. Except for abandoning PA, the advice seemed spot on to me.
We had another thread in from Hillbuzz in which a statistician for a major polling co. engaged by campaigns estimated O’s chances of carrying PA at only 55%. That seems worth the effort.
I am pulling for a PA win.
That was the blogpost I referred to in the title. I was jazzed about it and then more so when I saw the NYPost article talking about the exact same thing the pollster said re: NH and NM.
Me too! (Prayer works.) ;-)
beginning to get the heebie-jeebies......I am falling back upon the comfort that the pollsters are biased morons....
Perhaps they are counting on Jack “Redneck” Murtha to carry PA for McCain-Palin.
OK. Just got through playing with the RCP map. If we win all the Bush states but don’t win IA, NM, or NH, even if we win CO, we can’t win. Somebody help me out here.
I agree with 3) but don’t agree that McCain should abandon PA (2 weeks ago via Strategic Vision he was 14 points down; now he is 7 points down with 9 days of campaigning left); he definitely should go after NH with a vengeance but abandon NM-it looks like a lost cause.
What total do you have? BTW, Bush did not take NH in 2004.
OK, I’m retarded. They had ND in a toss up category. Shit the bed, that’s what’s retarded.
It will be racist redneck PA.
For crying out loud, they had MT in the toss up category too! Just damn.
And NH likes McCain. And yes, I think PA is doable thanks to Murtha and bitter gun-clinging religious people. My post was not meant to convey an acceptance of the “strategy” outlined. Merely a corroboration of previously posted info on polling from non-MSM sources.
Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa may not be doable, but I think Pennsylvania may go his way. With Florida, Virginia, NH and North Carolina those three.
Palin is going into hostile territory on Sunday when she goes to Ashville, NC. McCain will not pick up too many votes within the city. The suburbs around Ashville should favor him and I hope a lot of those people will show up and work to get the vote out for him.
Unless something drastic changes you can count on it.
Don’t believe any of the polls. Many lean to the dems when polling.
I like your tagline! My husband and I just bought our first reset button with two more planned. ;)
No way should McCain abandoned PA — the campaign knows what they are doing and why would they listen to the media?
If McCain somehow wins in PA, please let him also win in NH. That would give McCain several Electoral options in this election.
nothing is a wasted effort.....
Do you happen to know how many of these states have 10% or more undecided voters?
I believe those people are the key to most states. As long as McCain/Palin keep up an overall partriotic message and conservative drumbeat - lower taxes, greater accountability for Wall Street thieves, and no fudging on national security - the Republicans will win this election with greater than 54% of the vote totals.
Taking NH doesn’t help McCain unless he also takes PA or 1 EV from ME. I sure hope he takes PA and NH. But neither of the two scenarios occur, taking NH will not make a difference in this election.
despite and/or in spite of the driveby medias’ constant diatribe for barry hussein soetoro obama, and the huge money advantage from illegal sources,I BELIEVE MCCAIN WILL WIN....
McCain can win by criticizing Obama on Wright, Cone and Black Liberation Theology. It will swing things around 5 to 10 points. There is no downside, since you cant be called a racist for calling out a racist.
People will be repulsed by the truth. This is the Democrat’s and MSM’s Mark Foley scandal. They are covering it up and supporting this conman.
This’ll get you going to bed feeling better about things:
Also, these charges can be countered and neutralized by a fawning media.
A much better tactic would be to warn the populace of the impending problem of a liberal stranglehold on the government, and the forfeiture of checks and balances.
This advice is dumb. They’re assuming that from their public polls that they know more than the campaign does.
Let me put it this way. Zero has scrambled to do 2 events in PA next week. Why? I thought he was cruising to 400EVs, right? Yet, he’s campaigning in the blue states of NH and PA. Sure seems strange to me.
And these idiots would have McCain just abandon PA? How moronic. Thankfully they’re writing for newspapers and not running campaigns.
I find it interesting that Biden and Hillary have campaigned in Scranton to help Kanjorski. And they have been spending much time around Pittsburgh because Allegheny County seems to be sewn up for McCain.
McCain/Palin rallied in Washington County, PA, Scranton for Barletta CD10 ; Bethlehem for Dent CD 15 (not that that is in contention); Yardley for Manion CD8; Media for Williams CD 7; Johnstown for Russell CD 12; Beaver for Hart CD 4; and will be at State College this week - the exact center of the state. They have also been in York and now that I think about it almost every region of the state of PA.
O and B have essentially ignored most of the state except Scranton, Philly, and Pittsburgh. Remember PA, except for Philly is filled with Reagan Democrats and plenty of pro-life and pro-gun voters.
And Murtha inserting foot in his mouth has been a gift.
......I am falling back upon the comfort that the pollsters are biased morons....
***Now we can make money from the inaccuracies in the polls.
Intrade has Contracts for Beating the Spread on Polling Numbers
Whether PUMA’s or bloggers, they would be better off spending time going door to door to let people know what each candidate is really for.
Good for you. Buy plenty of ammo while you’re at it.
I agree. You are spot on.
He’s also hitting the red conservative areas of Virginia. Just needs to add Norfolk.
Sorry, but you’re wrong. Here - I’ll help you out:
Bush 2004 = 286 EVs
Bush added NM and IA to his totals in 2004 but lost NH from 2000.
286 - IA (7) - NM (5) = 274* (enough to win)
NH (4) would make it 278.
If McCain wins PA he will win NH, too.
“Thisll get you going to bed feeling better about things:
That’s pretty true,...
BUT then I read THIS!!!!
Now I’m up all night. :)
I’m willing to take that bet!
Thanks, good thread!
McCain is strong in PA....even in normally blue Pittsburgh.
THIS IS GARBAGE NONSENSE!
And NH likes McCain. And yes, I think PA is doable thanks to Murtha and bitter gun-clinging religious people. My post was not meant to convey an acceptance of the strategy outlined. Merely a corroboration of previously posted info on polling from non-MSM sources.
The article YOU POSTED is garbage, and hence my response was to it. What's not to understand about that?