SurveyUSA MO Poll: McCain 48% - Obama 48% (Importance of internals)

SurveyUSA Election Poll #14748 ^ | 11/3/08 | SurveyUSA

[FreepShop1]

how can we be tied in MO and down 6,7 or 8 nationally. Again does not compute. Somebody is wrong.

70% margins in NY, CA and IL?

[rwilliam]

Building off my comment about PA and VA, here are some additional thoughts...

Obama picks up CO, IA and NM.

VA goes to Obama.

However, PA goes to McCain.

At that moment, all focus goes to NV!

If NV goes to Obama, you have:

Obama - 270
McCain - 268

Obviously, you’d be looking to see what the numbers are in the one ME district at that point.

If NV goes to McCain, you have:

McCain - 273
Obama - 265

Notice where Palin is holding 2 rallies today! In addition, McCain is holding a rally there! At this point, I have to believe the McCain campaign is looking at this path as their “most likely scenario for winning”.

-Bob

[LibLieSlayer]

More dims will vote for McCain than Republicans will vote for osama... Operation Chaos and the bradley effect (or any derivation of it) are not figured into your scientific equation.

LLS

[Ravi]

That indeed would be the only way.

[Fred]

The battle will be in the recount. Lets hope their will be herds of RNC attys all over St. Louis county.

[WOSG]

“We need to be concerned about the fact that the polls of early voters indicate a significant lead often for Obama.”

It’s a concern, but those polls are highly skewed.
Rush reported on the internals on one poll, they are so far off they are practically garbage.

OTOH, the early voting does indicate to some extent a better GOTV operation by the Democrats.
I can give you the numbers here for Travis Co Texas-
the Dems had about 60% turnout for EV, the Repubs about 55% for EV, these are base voters only and in Travis a lot more Dem than GOP based voters, and the G voters were around 35%. This was weds numbers, about 2 days before final voting. By Friday, the GOP was surely over 60% and the Dems near 70%.

Basically this means that the Dems have already turned out and voted most of their base. Election day in parts of Texas will be about indies mostly. To some extent this doesnt mean much, if these were ‘certain’ voters anyway, OTOH, the more they turnout early, the easier to

GOTV DOES MATTER. I was able to get 100% GOP turnout in my precinct in 2004. I am seeing a bit higher level of motivation than in 2004 and certainly more GOP energy (mainly FEAR) than 2006. Use that energy to do GOTV.

If we get close to 100% of the base voting for our guy *AND* win enough the indies, we win the election. That’s how the game is played.

[Saab-driving Yuppie]

While I can't recall any election where the Republican candidate did better in the polls than on Election Day, I've not been impressed with the Survey USA polls that use automated recordings. I was involved in a campaign where SUSA had our candidate losing by 20, then 25, then 30 in three different polls that a news station was using. What's more, we were a first-time candidate going against a long-time incumbent. We started out with almost no name ID, yet somehow we were losing ground every time? BTW, we lost by 6.

Furthermore, I've been called by their automated polling four times in my life. And in each case, it was for a race I was not eligible to vote in. Cincinnati Mayor- I live in the suburbs. 2nd Congressional District- I live in the first. (I'm not on the border of these, either.) Dem primary between Obama and Clinton- I am a registered Republican who had voted absentee in the GOP primary. The piece de resistance though was in 2006, when I was called by them about the 9th Congressional District. That'd be the one in Indiana. I live in Ohio.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

McCain is not losing Virginia. Let’s look at the numbers in the last two elections.

2000 Bush 52.5% Gore 44.4%

2004 Bush 53.6% Kerry 45.4%

Bush won Virginia by 8.1% and 8.2%. Obama is not going to do better than either Gore or Kerry against McCain. The demographics have not moved that much and for every extra black vote Obama gets in Richmond, he will lose a racist Blue Dog Democrat vote in the mountains.

Again, Virginia is McCain’s by a good 6%. Same for North Carolina by a good 8%.

Colorado is Obama’s only chance. If he wins Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa, he could squeek out a win if McCain doesn’t win more than New Hampshire.

If McCain flips a Rust Belt State or holds Colorado, McCain wins. McCain has the tactical advantage while the press keeps looking at the strategic field. (Think of Washington’s capture of Cornwallis.)

[DakoKid]

Might be a little worse than that.

From poll - St. Louis - McCain - 40% Obama - 56%

In the City in 2000, Al Gore and Joe Lieberman garnered an amazing 77.4% of the vote with a raw vote total of 96,557 votes compared to 19.9% (24,799 votes) of the vote to Bush-Cheney and 2.1% of the vote for Nader (2,592 votes).

In 2004, Kerry-Edwards garnered 80.3% (116,133 votes) to Bush-Cheney’s 19.2% of the vote (27,793 votes) and write-ins for Nader of 17 votes.

Means Obama is underperforming Gore by 15% and Kerry by 24%

[Tigercap]

Is NV this year’s FL/OH???

[WOSG]

“He isn’t going to take Florida, Ohio, Virginia or North Carolina.”

NYTimes has VA in the Obama column. That’s whats making m head spins. Polls vs common sense, history, and massive amounts of anecdotal evidence.

I wont make any predictions except one: THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION IN A LONG LONG TIME AND EVERYBODY MUST VOTE MCCAIN/PALIN.

This will turn back on liberalism or sweep liberalism into power 100%. Never have the differences been starker.

[rwilliam]

Is NV this year’s FL/OH???

Possibly. All I'm saying is this... If PA and VA flip, McCain would win by winning any of these states: NH, CO, IA, NM or NV - any of those 5 states would do it!

-Bob

[WOSG]

Your analysis is a bit off. It’s not enough for O to win indies, if he loses more Ds and Rs outnumber Ds. Consider it this way.

O gets 50% in a 38% weighted D poll.
Assume he gets all the Ds, then hes got 12% or 50% of indies.
M gets 46% in a 36% weighted R polls
Assume he gets all the Rs, then hes got 10% or 42% of indies.

In a R 39/ D 35 / I 26 race, matching 2004, this would be
39+ 11 (.42x.26) = 50% McCain
35+13 = 48% Obama
Polls also show the ‘undecideds’ to be mostly white and not in NOVA, meaning a likely mccain/but-wont-state vote.
So that would be 52%/48% McCain, or a 4point margin.

I dont know what will happen, because there is fluidity in who is calling themselves R and D this year. I think that is screwing up polls perhaps moreso than ‘bradley effect’ (which imho is showing itself in the high undecideds).
If you can ‘fix’ the internals on this poll to go from narrow victory for Obama to the same for McCain, then it is telling you that THE RACE IS STILL TBD.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Missouri has coal mines.....See this thread with many embedded links:

McCain Honest On Coal Policy (unlike Obama)

And this one:

Sarah Palin Connects With Attack on the Liberal Media (Coal Plant Issue)

This could be the issue that pushes McCain/Palin into the White House....Sarah was in Ohio...I believe...and PA has no early voting!

[Godzilla]

The hits keep coming!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

See #34....for late breaking news on Obama that could change some states.

[rwilliam]

Your analysis is a bit off.

I understand what you're saying and I'm certainly not suggesting that Obama is guaranteed to win VA. It could easily go either way.

My main point is that I'd rather see McCain win PA and lose VA. If that happens, his chances of winning the election are better - not worse.

If McCain wins VA and loses PA, he needs to end up winning more states to win the election.

-Bob

[Friendofgeorge]

Could the early voting numbers simply mean that they voted early! Nothing more perhaps! So they voted early, big deal??

[rwfromkansas]

Possibly.

[Frantzie]

You may have written NM off too early too. I think McCain wins NM. Support among legal Mexican Americans is very low and the Catholic Church has MAJOR problems with Hussein. It is not just abortion either.