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SurveyUSA MO Poll: McCain 48% - Obama 48% (Importance of internals)
SurveyUSA Election Poll #14748 ^ | 11/3/08 | SurveyUSA

Posted on 11/03/2008 10:31:26 AM PST by rwilliam

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Here are the party affiliation numbers for this poll:

Democrat - 39%

Republican - 34%

Independent - 25%

For the record, here are the party affiliation numbers for the 2004 election:

Republican - 36%

Democrat - 35%

Independent - 29%

So, this poll is based on a net change of 6% towards the Democrats compared to 2004!

In any event though, the poll includes a 5% gap in party affiliation towards the Democrats.

The poll results were as follows:

McCain - 48%

Obama - 48%

So, based on that, here is how well each candidate is performing OVER their party affiliation percentage:

Obama - 9% greater than Democratic party affiliation percentage

McCain - 14% greater than Republican party affiliation percentage

That’s right! McCain is outpacing the party affiliation percentage by +5% greater than Obama!

If Republicans turn out to vote in great numbers tomorrow, this election will be very, very close. So, each and everyone of us needs to do our part to make that happen!

-Bob

1 posted on 11/03/2008 10:31:26 AM PST by rwilliam
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To: rwilliam

Interesting stuff, I agree that IF we turn out our side has a chance.


2 posted on 11/03/2008 10:36:36 AM PST by bcatwilly (West Virginia is McCain-Palin Country!)
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To: rwilliam

how can we be tied in MO and down 6,7 or 8 nationally. Again does not compute. Somebody is wrong. SUSA state polls are very accurate. I learned that the hard way from 2006 when I thought there was no way Dems were ahead in that many seats. They of course ended up being right on most of those races. But one interesting poll was VA where they had Webb leading Allen by 8 in their last poll. Of course it was basically a tie. Their VA poll done yesterday shows Obama 50 to McCain 46. So if this like 2006, they are underestimating our turnout.


3 posted on 11/03/2008 10:41:33 AM PST by Ravi
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To: rwilliam

I’ve been doing a lot of thinking that if the pollsters are right, and the worst case scenario of having a huge D-R split is true... then, it’s impossible that Independents aren’t going heavily Dem as well. The enthusiasm should bleed over to the Is as well.

But it’s not.


4 posted on 11/03/2008 10:43:32 AM PST by GoSarah
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To: rwilliam

Say goodbye Hussein, Missouri is gone. And you can take that shrill scarecrow McCaskill too...


5 posted on 11/03/2008 10:44:15 AM PST by iceshaving
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To: Ravi

We need to be concerned about the fact that the polls of early voters indicate a significant lead often for Obama.

They are only somewhat reliable, but still something to look at.

I am concerned O is not going to PA, as that makes it seem they are not concerned about that state. We may need PA.

At the same time, there are many encouraging signs for us as well, which just makes me so glad tomorrow is the end of this madhouse, even if we lose.


6 posted on 11/03/2008 10:44:36 AM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwilliam; 1stMarylandRegiment; 47carollann; A Citizen Reporter; A Cyrenian; adrian; AFLoggie; ...
Missouri ping

Low volume ping list

FReepmail me to be on, or off, this list.

Turn out and vote!

7 posted on 11/03/2008 10:47:00 AM PST by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: rwfromkansas

I remain cautiously optimistic. Even this early voting lead poll is not accurate. Fox just showed that of those that have already voted, Obama is ahead only by one point. Someone is really f***ing up these numbers. Last week it was Obama by 9. No one really knows what’s going on out there and it’s up to us to vote and bring everyone we know to vote also and things will turn out well.


8 posted on 11/03/2008 10:48:49 AM PST by Ravi
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To: rwfromkansas

I’ve been playing around on the those interactive electoral maps thos morning, and I don’t see any way McCain pulls this out without PA. I hope I’m wrong, but it doesn’t look good to me if McCain loses PA.


9 posted on 11/03/2008 10:49:52 AM PST by sola_fide
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To: GoSarah

The election is where it needs to be: a referendum on the Obamatron. Independents should fall heavily to McCain the question is how much.
We are looking for better than two-thirds. The ideal is somewhere in the 80% ballpark.

Independents will not go for the Obamination. The media and $600 plus million of illegal campaign dollars would have convinced them by now. Only a fraction of those independents will go for the Obamatron IMHO.

That must have the media and Axelrod worried. They may be confident, but there is room here for the upset. And maybe some room to spare.


10 posted on 11/03/2008 10:51:30 AM PST by romanesq
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To: sola_fide

What are you seeing as flipping to Obama?

Iowa and New Mexico I think, but what else? Obama must take Colorado. He isn’t going to take Florida, Ohio, Virginia or North Carolina. That leaves Colorado. And if he loses any State more than New Hampshire, he can’t win.

I see Obama as the one with a single path to victory, McCain has many roads.


11 posted on 11/03/2008 10:52:20 AM PST by Anitius Severinus Boethius
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To: Just another Joe

Get your friends to vote tomorrow as well, for McCain/Palin.
The non socialists.


12 posted on 11/03/2008 10:52:39 AM PST by o_zarkman44 (Since when is paying more, but getting less, considered Patriotic?)
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To: Ravi

Well Obama has invested heavily in getting the early vote out. He should in fact have a substantial lead based on that investment.

This may be a strong early indicator that things will not fall his way. Should he go down in flames, this will be cited as the historical factor that was important to his defeat.

The media of course will not cite this. It’s the last thing they want to do.
But we should note it. This should be significant.


13 posted on 11/03/2008 10:53:27 AM PST by romanesq
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To: rwilliam

Good weather forecast for tomorrow. Drive your older friends to the polls. they will get out more with better weather.

The young Obama supporters will be in touch with nature instead of voting.


14 posted on 11/03/2008 10:55:47 AM PST by o_zarkman44 (Since when is paying more, but getting less, considered Patriotic?)
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To: rwilliam
McCain is outpacing the party affiliation percentage by +5% greater than Obama!

Go Mac! Go Puma! Go Bradley!

15 posted on 11/03/2008 10:56:59 AM PST by 1035rep
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To: AdmSmith; Berosus; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Fred Nerks; george76; ...
The more younger voters who turn-out, the better Obama's chances. The more older voters who turn-out, the better McCain's chances. McCain must win Missouri to be elected President. Obama would like to win Missouri, but has many paths to 270 electoral votes that do not include Missouri's 11.
Nice spin there. :') 39 per cent of those polled said they were Demwits, only 34 per cent said Pubbie, IOW, just another skewed poll.
16 posted on 11/03/2008 10:57:41 AM PST by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/_______Profile finally updated Saturday, October 11, 2008 !!!)
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To: Ravi

With regards to SurveyUSA’s VA poll...

Here are the party affiliation numbers for that poll:

Democrat - 38%

Republican - 36%

Independent - 24%

For the record, here are the party affiliation numbers for the 2004 election:

Republican - 39%

Democrat - 35%

Independent - 26%

So, that poll is also based on a net change of 6% towards the Democrats compared to 2004.

However, the poll only includes a 2% gap in party affiliation towards the Democrats.

The poll results were as follows:

Obama - 50%

McCain - 46%

So, based on that, here is how well each candidate is performing OVER their party affiliation percentage:

Obama - 12% greater than Democratic party affiliation percentage

McCain - 10% greater than Republican party affiliation percentage

In VA, Obama is actually outpacing the party affiliation percentage by +2% greater than McCain. I’m afraid that VA is going to be more tough (as many have expected).

In my opinion, this election comes down to PA and VA. If one of the candidates wins both states, they will be President. If those states are split, we’re watching returns well into the night.

-Bob


17 posted on 11/03/2008 10:58:38 AM PST by rwilliam
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius

Well, I’d pretty much written off the following: CO, IA, and VA. I actually gave NH to McCain. If the above happens, it looks to me like McCain would lose 277-261 in electoral votes. (That’s assuming he doesn’t win PA). Am I missing something? Maybe I’ve written off VA and CO prematurely?


18 posted on 11/03/2008 10:58:42 AM PST by sola_fide
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To: rwilliam

Been making calls today at the State GOP center in Columbia MO.

BTW: Historically as in this century, Republicans have voted in higher number than dems in MO.


19 posted on 11/03/2008 11:04:10 AM PST by edge10
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To: rwfromkansas

I am concerned that Acorn’s fake registers are voting absentee.


20 posted on 11/03/2008 11:07:47 AM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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