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how can we be tied in MO and down 6,7 or 8 nationally. Again does not compute. Somebody is wrong. SUSA state polls are very accurate. I learned that the hard way from 2006 when I thought there was no way Dems were ahead in that many seats. They of course ended up being right on most of those races. But one interesting poll was VA where they had Webb leading Allen by 8 in their last poll. Of course it was basically a tie. Their VA poll done yesterday shows Obama 50 to McCain 46. So if this like 2006, they are underestimating our turnout.

We need to be concerned about the fact that the polls of early voters indicate a significant lead often for Obama.

They are only somewhat reliable, but still something to look at.

I am concerned O is not going to PA, as that makes it seem they are not concerned about that state. We may need PA.

At the same time, there are many encouraging signs for us as well, which just makes me so glad tomorrow is the end of this madhouse, even if we lose.

With regards to SurveyUSA’s VA poll...

Here are the party affiliation numbers for that poll:

Democrat - 38%

Republican - 36%

Independent - 24%

For the record, here are the party affiliation numbers for the 2004 election:

Republican - 39%

Democrat - 35%

Independent - 26%

So, that poll is also based on a net change of 6% towards the Democrats compared to 2004.

However, the poll only includes a 2% gap in party affiliation towards the Democrats.

The poll results were as follows:

Obama - 50%

McCain - 46%

So, based on that, here is how well each candidate is performing OVER their party affiliation percentage:

Obama - 12% greater than Democratic party affiliation percentage

McCain - 10% greater than Republican party affiliation percentage

In VA, Obama is actually outpacing the party affiliation percentage by +2% greater than McCain. I’m afraid that VA is going to be more tough (as many have expected).

In my opinion, this election comes down to PA and VA. If one of the candidates wins both states, they will be President. If those states are split, we’re watching returns well into the night.

-Bob

While I can't recall any election where the Republican candidate did better in the polls than on Election Day, I've not been impressed with the Survey USA polls that use automated recordings. I was involved in a campaign where SUSA had our candidate losing by 20, then 25, then 30 in three different polls that a news station was using. What's more, we were a first-time candidate going against a long-time incumbent. We started out with almost no name ID, yet somehow we were losing ground every time? BTW, we lost by 6.

Furthermore, I've been called by their automated polling four times in my life. And in each case, it was for a race I was not eligible to vote in. Cincinnati Mayor- I live in the suburbs. 2nd Congressional District- I live in the first. (I'm not on the border of these, either.) Dem primary between Obama and Clinton- I am a registered Republican who had voted absentee in the GOP primary. The piece de resistance though was in 2006, when I was called by them about the 9th Congressional District. That'd be the one in Indiana. I live in Ohio.