Posted on 11/03/2008 3:07:10 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
For those of you who have been following my prediction of a McCain-Palin landslide, here is my latest take. This article was posted yesterday on Real Clear Politics and resulted in over 25,000 hits on my website. It was cross posted on a half dozen more. I am going to copy in the tables from that article that have now been updated using today's averages shown in the no toss up map page at real clear politics. I have posted this article on real clear politics, but it has not come out on the front page because it just got the required 10 votes.
(Table at link)
What a difference 48 hours make. Now let's look at that same table on November 3rd and see what has changed.
(Table at link)
What leaps out at you is that Iowa has dropped off the table because the RCP average is fighting the trend and has gone from 11.6 to 15.3 points and is out of reach. On the other hand, Minnesota has gone from above 13 points down to 9.8 and now needs to be added to the table. Eight of the other states have dropped significantly in the RCP averages and two are unchanged. Now instead of McCain-Palin needing 493,636 PUMA votes to tie and 35,935 more to win, they only need 332,013 to tie and 34,276 more to win. I have changed the last two columns to reflect the changes in the RCP averages and the number of PUMA voters no longer required. I know a trend when I see one.
Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 507,231 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 873,520 PUMA's spread across eleven states are needed to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid?
North Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states? No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA's in New Mexico and because of its high Latino population. I think that Wisconsin is still too far out of reach unless a trend develops by tomorrow.
What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 80 electoral votes. That is because I am quite certain that McCain-Palin will carry the other nine states for a total of 309 electoral votes compared to 229 for Obama-Biden. In my first update today, I only added Minnesota to the group I thought McCain-Palin would carry. Looking at the trend in Colorado as opposed to the RCP average convinces me that it will go for McCain-Palin but only by a narrow margin. The same is true of Nevada. Here the Obama steam roller tactics in the Democratic Caucus produced enough PUMA voters to pull it off.
What will be interesting to see is how the pollsters and the media will react to this unbelievable upset. On the other hand, I think we all know what their reaction will be -- America is a racist country. No matter what they say, the real reasons will be (1) The DNC and the Obama folks dumped all over Hillary Clinton and then did not ask her to take the second slot, (2) America is simply not ready for a President who is so far out of the mainstream of political thought, (3) that Obama's constant playing of the race card cost him a lot of votes from people who did not like being called racists, (4) the media assuring the voters that Obama was a shoo-in because Americans are a stubborn lot and (5) Obama's attitude that his election was preordained.
UPDATE: Make that McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228. I have just been informed that I missed the fact that Sarah Palin took my advice and went to Bangor, Maine. Maine splits two of its electoral votes off and allocates them to the winner in each Congressional District. Congressional District 2 in Northern Maine will give McCain-Palin that one more vote for a margin of 81 electoral votes. I just got back from Maine and New Hampshire not to mention the fact that my branch of the Marston family is all from Machias, Maine.
RESPONSE TO READERS: Many of you have asked why the pollsters are not accounting for the PUMA Factor. Their models are built on the "normal" defection from a voter registering with one party and voting for the other one. Because the Democratic Party hosed Hillary big time, the are some very unhappy Democrats who will not vote for Obama. This is not normal and is an effect causing a mistake of 7 to 8 % in the polling by counting Democrats as voting for Obama when they are going to vote for McCain. I have lost count of how many websites are devoted to the PUMA phenomenon, but it is way over 100. Like Br'er Rabbit, they are lying low and are about to claw up Obama for what he did to Hillary. Of course, it helps that there is a female on the Republican ticket which gives these folks one more reason to forget about party unity even if they do not agree with her positions.
PS: I live in Prescott, Arizona and John McCain will be here tonight. Needless to say, I am going to the rally. I will tell him about how enthused you all are if I get the chance.
Go PUMAS!
Is this guy accounting for the enthusiastic “I’m voting for the black guy ‘cause I’m black too” turnout for Hussein?
Can you add a line of text that I think good conservatives need to hear?
“Damn the Polls!
Ignore the Kenyan/Odinga Politics!
Full Speed Ahead!”
I get the feeling that too many good Americans think American cities will go up in flames if Opossum isn’t elected. They may not vote for POTUS or stay away from the polls.
Even if you include it “every-now-and-then”, it might make a difference in how the activists approach their neighbors.
Thanks for reading...
Man, I hope you’re right.
I firmly believe we are going to elect McCain/Palin tomorrow! I say that with total conviction. In 2000 and 2004 I was a nervous wreck over FL and then OH. Did not eat the night before either election. Knew FL was in trouble in 2000 and was sworn to silence; same with OH in 2004!
This time I had BBQ for dinner and looking for McCain to flip blue states red! Made a lot more phone calls this time while response has been much more positive then in 2000 or 2004.
In 2000, I like you, PhiKapMom, was a nervous wreck for 36 days until that election was settled by the USSC. In 2004, I was a little more confident of FLorida, which bore out to be true. Only Ohio was my concern, and considering it was 118,000 votes and not 537 votes, Kerry had a bigger hurdle to overcome. This election, I don’t know what to think. At least 5-6 battleground states will decide it. Everybody watch out for Missouri. That could decide this year’s election.
I’m finishing up an email that I’m emailing to friends, who in turn are forwarding the email per below instructions. I will post the email in about an hour. Please return in an hour and consider emailing and posting the mail to the battleground states. Thx. By the way does anyone know a site that allows you to send letters to the editor of all the newspapers in the country, five or ten at a time. Also, can someone recommend a high quality site with links to all the newspapers in the country. Thx
Hi,
If you agree with this email, EMAIL it to the people on your mailing list IMMEDIATELY. Then immediately follow-up your email with a CALL to all the people on your MAILING LIST so that they can read it IMMEDIATELY and, in turn, FORWARD the email to ALL the people on their MAILING list. By forwarding these emails, the email directions will be read by ALL persons down the line. This can be significant. If we assume that each person on your mailing list, for instance, forwards it to ten persons, and they then forward it to 100 people. Those 100 people will then forward their emails to 1000 persons. The next iteration will forward emails to 10,000, then 100,000, then 1,000,000. By the eighth iteration, theoretically 1 billion emails will have been received and read. If we assume that each iteration takes 15 minutes, a billion emails will have been received in two hours.
ESSENTIAL to a large, quick dissemination is that everyone read the email until they feel comfortable with the email and then immediately forward the email and then immediately follow up the transmission of the email with a phone CALL explaining that they have an important email with information they should consider and, hopefully, be convinced to vote for McCain and forward the email followed by an immediate phone call. If you are already voting for McCain forward the letter immediately or skim and forward the letter immediately. In addition, depending on how strongly you feel, post this letter to forums, and write letters to the editor tonight and tomorrow. Continue forwarding the letter for at least a week. Post to priority news forums at the following states: Pa, Fl, Oh, NC, Ga, In, Va, Mo, Mt, Nd, Az. Post after posting to priority states: Wv, Ar, Co, Mn, Nm, & Nv. Focus on the Pa, Fl, and Oh first.
Mr. Martson had new updates at the bottom of the link:
http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=95&Itemid=119
UPDATE: Make that McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228. I have just been informed that I missed the fact that Sarah Palin took my advice and went to Bangor, Maine. Maine splits two of its electoral votes off and allocates them to the winner in each Congressional District. Congressional District 2 in Northern Maine will give McCain-Palin that one more vote for a margin of 81 electoral votes. I just got back from Maine and New Hampshire not to mention the fact that my branch of the Marston family is all from Machias, Maine.
UPDATE2: RCP has just revised their averages again. They now show North Carolina as positive for McCain-Palin so I have removed it from the second table as a done deal. Florida has dropped from 2.5 to 1.8 points. Ohio has dropped from 4.3 to 3.2 points. Virginia has edged up 0.1 points to 4.3. I have changed the figures to reflect this. It now takes only 278,961 PUMA votes to tie instead of 493,636 just five hours ago. Still think I am crazy? Make up a huge batch of Kool-Aid. We will need truckloads of it.
UPDATE3: Batter up! On deck we have Michigan at 13.0 and Washington at 13.4. These are a real reach, but I will add them to the table if I see any downward movement.
Don’t forget NRA/guns and the Catholic Church.
The NRA has been hammering Obama as the most anti-gun candidate in Presidential history. Bill clinton and the Dems supposedly learned their lesson about taking on the NRA.
The bishops have been telling the faithful that Obama is totally unacceptable and it is not just abortion. They know a lot about Obama. I have never seen the church come out so strongly.
Why the church’s response? I know people who do business with high level people in Africa in quite a few countries. They had told Americans I know who deal with them that Obama is a Muslim. Not maybe not possibly.
Don’t forget NRA/guns and the Catholic Church.
The NRA has been hammering Obama as the most anti-gun candidate in Presidential history. Bill clinton and the Dems supposedly learned their lesson about taking on the NRA.
The bishops have been telling the faithful that Obama is totally unacceptable and it is not just abortion. They know a lot about Obama. I have never seen the church come out so strongly.
Why the church’s response? I know people who do business with high level people in Africa in quite a few countries. They had told Americans I know who deal with them that Obama is a Muslim. Not maybe not possibly.
Bump
>>If you’re on the battlefield when things are going a little rough, do you surrender before the battle actually begins?<<
I don’t think anyone has surrendered, but I’ll bet most of us already voted. I don’t think anybody has won, so it’s up to people who have not voted yet. Many of them don’t listen to reason. I voted against BO, but I don’t really think McCain or Bush knows what to do with the economy either. BO would be much worse, but some will vote for him anyway because he is different.
If the polls are right, for McCain to win he needs all of the states they say are the “tossup” states, which would be like tossing 6 “tails” in a row, 1 chance in 64, plus picking off a state like PA.
If the polls are overestimating BO, then McCain should win in both Virginia and Florida.
From those 2 states we can get a feel for how the whole election will come out. (I am assuming McCain wins GA and NC.)
Without giving anything away, you appear to have been in the trenches in 2000,2004 and 2008 making calls. Plus you knew things about both states and were sworn to silence.
You made a lot more calls in 2008. So you feel good about McCain-Palin without saying too much?
I know what the people sound like on the other line from 2004. After the 1500th or more call you get a real feel. I assume in 2008 you have been hopefully getting the “we will be the first in line to vote, crawling across glass or something..”???
My feeling is almost all Repubs and many PUMAs are jumping out of their skin ready to fight wild tigers to vote McCain in the morning. I know I am.
I believe McCain & Palin will win, but I’m still praying hard!
Exactly. Anyone who is brave enough, can put his money where his mouth is. A sure thing that pays off 10 to 1 should be a no-brainer.
Well, my track record is no where near 45 years of perfection. Nevertheless, I don't believe McCain will win in MInnesota.
He isn’t going to take MI either.
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