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Texas Early Voting FINAL Turnout Results Great News for the GOP!
Texas Secretary of State ^ | November 3, 2008 | Self

Posted on 11/03/2008 3:24:45 PM PST by Zakeet

All of the MSM/Liberal University poll heavily oversample Democratic voters on the premise Democrats are so enthused over Obama they will turnout in record numbers, whereas Republicans are so discouraged and/or disgusted with Bush/McCain they will not vote in similar proportions. This is a critical assumption. If it is not correct, the polls will significantly overstate Mr. Obama's expected vote totals.

Early voting data released by the Texas Secretary of State for the 15 counties with the largest population shows the MSM polling assumption is dead WRONG. In fact, the opposite of what should have happened under the MSM scenario took place. A larger percentage of the people in traditionally Republican counties voted than persons in traditional Democratic counties, AND the increase in the percentage of early voters was greatest for the so-called red counties.

Consider the following:

  1. There was a huge increase in Texas’ early voting turnout – about 49 percent – from 2.4 million in 2004 to 3.55 million this year.

  2. At the close of early voting on Friday, the early vote stood at 47 percent of State’s entire 2004 election turnout.

  3. The early voting increase was greatest in Houston area – up 71 percent compared to 2004.

    This is likely due to in part to Hurricane Ike (people voting when they can as they are still cleaning up after the storm). The turmoil in the energy market also probably plays significant role – oil prices are falling and the Democrats are responsible for obstructing domestic oil exploration. The energy industry is a huge part of the Houston economy.

  4. Excluding Houston and its Western Suburbs as outliers, early voting was up by:

    Despite the much heralded Democratic voter enrollment drives, the number of registered voters did not changed much in four years – and has actually increased most in areas carried by George Bush in 2004. According to the Secretary of State registered voters were:

In other words, if data for the second largest state is representative of the rest of the country, the polls are screwed!

A summary of the data is posted in the comments below. The raw data can be obtained from the Office of the Texas Secretary of State at the following links:

2004 Early Voting

2008 Early Voting

2004 Election Results



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: earlyvoting; msmbias; polls; texas
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Here are some real numbers you can use to evaluate the MSM push polls.

Of course, Texas isn't considered a swing state in this election, and we don't know for sure how the votes will break until they are counted tomorrow night, BUT Texas is the second largest state in terms of population and we do have our share of retirees, minorities and other groups considered key voting blocks.

Enjoy.

1 posted on 11/03/2008 3:24:49 PM PST by Zakeet
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To: All
2004 Early Voting

Counties Carried by Kerry

County Reg Voters Early Voters % Early Vote
Travis 584,949 217,428 37%
El Paso 371,856 96,420 26%
Hidalgo 269,811 61,970 23%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County Reg Voters Early Voters % Early Vote
Dallas 1,231,291 346,729 28%
Harris 1,937,072 436,896 23%
Bexar 908,466 274,786 30%
Nueces 201,707 53,031 26%
Fort Bend 254,364 83,965 33%
Galveston 185,911 64,714 35%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County Reg Voters Early Voters % Early Vote
Tarrant 918,656 305,666 33%
Williamson 200,344 77,142 39%
Denton 321,700 116,632 36%
Collin 369,412 153,566 42%
Montgomery 214,098 70,023 33%


2008 Early Voting

Counties Carried by Kerry

County Reg Voters Early Voters % Early Vote
Travis 609,180 298,873 49%
El Paso 388,643 114,765 30%
Hidalgo 305,206 87,366 29%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County Reg Voters Early Voters % Early Vote
Dallas 1,208,151 508,070 42%
Harris 1,940,356 733,758 38%
Bexar 930,943 400,638 43%
Nueces 198,938 67,331 34%
Fort Bend 299,002 155,912 52%
Galveston 189,042 77,312 41%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County Reg Voters Early Voters % Early Vote
Tarrant 959,499 459,842 48%
Williamson 231,977 112,239 48%
Denton 358,525 174,276 49%
Collin 424,528 219,694 52%
Montgomery 241,927 104,898 43%


2004-2008 Early Voting Increase

Counties Carried by Kerry

County Increased EV % Increase
Travis 81,445 37%>
El Paso 18,345 19%
Hidalgo 25,576 41%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County Increased EV % Increase
Dallas 161,314 47%
Harris 296,862 68%
Bexar 125,852 46%
Nueces 14,300 27%
Fort Bend 71,947 86%
Galveston 12,598 19%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County Increased EV % Increase
Tarrant 154,176 50%
Williamson 35,187 46%
Denton 57,644 49%
Collin 66,128 43%
Montgomery 34,875 50%


2004-2008 Change in Registered Voters

Counties Carried by Kerry

County Increased RV % Increase
Travis 24,231 4%
El Paso 16,787 5%
Hidalgo 35,395 13%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County Increased RV % Increase
Dallas -23,140 -2%
Harris 3,284 0%
Bexar 22,477 2%
Nueces -2,769 -1%
Fort Bend 44,638 18%
Galveston 3,131 2%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County Increased RV % Increase
Tarrant 40,843 4%
Williamson 31,633 16%
Denton 36,825 11%
Collin 55,116 15%
Montgomery 27,829 13%


2004 Election Results

Counties Carried by Kerry

County Bush Kerry % Bush
Travis 147,885 197,235 43%
El Paso 73,261 95,142 44%
Hidalgo 50,931 62,369 45%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County Bush Kerry % Bush
Dallas 346,246 336,641 51%
Harris 584,723 475,865 55%
Bexar 260,698 210,976 55%
Nueces 59,359 44,439 57%
Fort Bend 93,625 68,722 58%
Galveston 61,290 43,919 58%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County Bush Kerry % Bush
Tarrant 349,462 207,286 63%
Williamson 83,284 43,117 66%
Denton 140,891 59,346 70%
Collin 174,435 68,935 72%
Montgomery 104,654 28,628 79%


Where Texas Counties are Located

Travis – Austin
El Paso – El Paso
Hidalgo – McAllen (Lower Rio Grande Valley)
Dallas – Dallas
Harris – Houston
Bexar – San Antonio
Nueces – Corpus Christi
Fort Bend – West Houston
Galveston – Galveston
Tarrant – Fort Worth
Williamson – Round Rock (North of Austin)
Denton – Denton (North of Dallas)
Collin – NE of Dallas
Montgomery – North of Houston

2 posted on 11/03/2008 3:26:31 PM PST by Zakeet (Obama-Pelosi-Reid -- the Axis of Taxes)
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To: Zakeet

Florida showing the same. Now Texas. A trend is starting and will continue. Pumas crossing over and voting McCain.


3 posted on 11/03/2008 3:27:12 PM PST by jrooney (I am not voting for Spread the Wealth/Senator Government. I am voting for the War Hero and Baracuda.)
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To: Zakeet

The only question might be that, knowing that Osama never had a chance of carrying Texas, did his campaign put the same effort into the GOTV effort that they might put out in competitive states?


4 posted on 11/03/2008 3:29:40 PM PST by johniegrad
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To: Zakeet

What gives me hope is that Texas is NOT a swing state yet conservatives turned out in huge numbers. Where I voted I promise you there were few obama voters in line.


5 posted on 11/03/2008 3:30:53 PM PST by Terry Mross
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To: jrooney

Been out of town on business for ten days.....lost touch with FR...I did not know Florida early polling exit data showing good for McCain....that it excellent.


6 posted on 11/03/2008 3:31:06 PM PST by maeng
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To: jrooney

The Florida results would be more compelling to me since this is a battleground. As for Texas, tough to rally when you feel your vote might not make an impact. Still, overall impressive results for Texas


7 posted on 11/03/2008 3:31:31 PM PST by GerardKempf (Let's Get Over This)
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To: jrooney

I don’t mind the good news a bit believe me. I’m still enraged by the attempt to suppress military votes in VA GRRRRR! To Arms! Fight!


8 posted on 11/03/2008 3:31:48 PM PST by toddausauras
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To: jrooney

Plus the Operation Chaos voters who were GOP but registered RAT for the primaries and didn’t switch back. I’ll be watching my county specifically since it is heavy GOP, but i leterally taked to a ton of people who switched parties to participate in operation chaos.


9 posted on 11/03/2008 3:31:59 PM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature (If You Have A BRAIN - You'll Vote For MCCAIN)
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To: johniegrad

Goodness no. Not much of anything. I get a robocall occasionally, but only from congressional candidates. It would be a waste of resources.


10 posted on 11/03/2008 3:32:21 PM PST by Jedidah
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To: GerardKempf

See my post #4. Why did all these conservatives turn out when McCain has the state sewed up?


11 posted on 11/03/2008 3:32:57 PM PST by Terry Mross
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To: GerardKempf

See my post #4. Why did all these conservatives turn out when McCain has the state sewed up? I think obama is the one person in the world who stirred up the conservative base more than Hillary would have.


12 posted on 11/03/2008 3:33:26 PM PST by Terry Mross
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To: Zakeet

Early voting was certainly up in my county, Coryell, which is about an hour north of Austin and includes a portion of Fort Hood. I voted on the 20th, the first day of early voting.


13 posted on 11/03/2008 3:33:44 PM PST by TXBlair (Once upon a time there was a man named Ned Lamont. The end.)
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To: Jedidah

That’s what I thought. However, I suppose looking at it another way, one could say it was extremely good news with as many Republicans voting without the need to do so to carry the state.


14 posted on 11/03/2008 3:34:25 PM PST by johniegrad
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To: GerardKempf
"Still, overall impressive results for Texas"

Everyone is motivated here -- protest vote. NOBAMA!!!!!
15 posted on 11/03/2008 3:34:58 PM PST by DRey
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature

In Texas, you don’t even register with a party. You just choose the primary you want to vote in. So there’s no “switching back” to be done.

(Voting in one party’s primary does, however, preclude voting in the other party’s runoff if there is one.)


16 posted on 11/03/2008 3:34:58 PM PST by Jedidah
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To: Terry Mross

I am so blessed to live in Texas where rugged individualism is paramount to government handouts. Texas has been known as a low tax, low services state.

However, with the influx of millions of illegals, I fear that we may eventually go blue. When that happens America will be lost. Until then....GOD BLESS TEXAS!


17 posted on 11/03/2008 3:35:16 PM PST by lone star annie
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To: johniegrad

Local, judicial, and congressional races.


18 posted on 11/03/2008 3:36:10 PM PST by Jedidah
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To: Zakeet

I’ll be voting early in Texas - 7:00 a.m tomorrow morning.


19 posted on 11/03/2008 3:36:14 PM PST by fwdude ("...a 'centrist' ... has few principles – and those are negotiable." - Don Feder)
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To: Jedidah

Yeah. Tough to know what to make out of this.


20 posted on 11/03/2008 3:37:42 PM PST by johniegrad
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