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Texas Early Voting FINAL Turnout Results Great News for the GOP!
Texas Secretary of State ^ | November 3, 2008 | Self

Posted on 11/03/2008 3:24:45 PM PST by Zakeet

All of the MSM/Liberal University poll heavily oversample Democratic voters on the premise Democrats are so enthused over Obama they will turnout in record numbers, whereas Republicans are so discouraged and/or disgusted with Bush/McCain they will not vote in similar proportions. This is a critical assumption. If it is not correct, the polls will significantly overstate Mr. Obama's expected vote totals.

Early voting data released by the Texas Secretary of State for the 15 counties with the largest population shows the MSM polling assumption is dead WRONG. In fact, the opposite of what should have happened under the MSM scenario took place. A larger percentage of the people in traditionally Republican counties voted than persons in traditional Democratic counties, AND the increase in the percentage of early voters was greatest for the so-called red counties.

Consider the following:

  1. There was a huge increase in Texas’ early voting turnout – about 49 percent – from 2.4 million in 2004 to 3.55 million this year.

  2. At the close of early voting on Friday, the early vote stood at 47 percent of State’s entire 2004 election turnout.

  3. The early voting increase was greatest in Houston area – up 71 percent compared to 2004.

    This is likely due to in part to Hurricane Ike (people voting when they can as they are still cleaning up after the storm). The turmoil in the energy market also probably plays significant role – oil prices are falling and the Democrats are responsible for obstructing domestic oil exploration. The energy industry is a huge part of the Houston economy.

  4. Excluding Houston and its Western Suburbs as outliers, early voting was up by:

    Despite the much heralded Democratic voter enrollment drives, the number of registered voters did not changed much in four years – and has actually increased most in areas carried by George Bush in 2004. According to the Secretary of State registered voters were:

In other words, if data for the second largest state is representative of the rest of the country, the polls are screwed!

A summary of the data is posted in the comments below. The raw data can be obtained from the Office of the Texas Secretary of State at the following links:

2004 Early Voting

2008 Early Voting

2004 Election Results



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: earlyvoting; msmbias; polls; texas
Here are some real numbers you can use to evaluate the MSM push polls.

Of course, Texas isn't considered a swing state in this election, and we don't know for sure how the votes will break until they are counted tomorrow night, BUT Texas is the second largest state in terms of population and we do have our share of retirees, minorities and other groups considered key voting blocks.

Enjoy.

1 posted on 11/03/2008 3:24:49 PM PST by Zakeet
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To: All
2004 Early Voting

Counties Carried by Kerry

County Reg Voters Early Voters % Early Vote
Travis 584,949 217,428 37%
El Paso 371,856 96,420 26%
Hidalgo 269,811 61,970 23%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County Reg Voters Early Voters % Early Vote
Dallas 1,231,291 346,729 28%
Harris 1,937,072 436,896 23%
Bexar 908,466 274,786 30%
Nueces 201,707 53,031 26%
Fort Bend 254,364 83,965 33%
Galveston 185,911 64,714 35%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County Reg Voters Early Voters % Early Vote
Tarrant 918,656 305,666 33%
Williamson 200,344 77,142 39%
Denton 321,700 116,632 36%
Collin 369,412 153,566 42%
Montgomery 214,098 70,023 33%


2008 Early Voting

Counties Carried by Kerry

County Reg Voters Early Voters % Early Vote
Travis 609,180 298,873 49%
El Paso 388,643 114,765 30%
Hidalgo 305,206 87,366 29%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County Reg Voters Early Voters % Early Vote
Dallas 1,208,151 508,070 42%
Harris 1,940,356 733,758 38%
Bexar 930,943 400,638 43%
Nueces 198,938 67,331 34%
Fort Bend 299,002 155,912 52%
Galveston 189,042 77,312 41%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County Reg Voters Early Voters % Early Vote
Tarrant 959,499 459,842 48%
Williamson 231,977 112,239 48%
Denton 358,525 174,276 49%
Collin 424,528 219,694 52%
Montgomery 241,927 104,898 43%


2004-2008 Early Voting Increase

Counties Carried by Kerry

County Increased EV % Increase
Travis 81,445 37%>
El Paso 18,345 19%
Hidalgo 25,576 41%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County Increased EV % Increase
Dallas 161,314 47%
Harris 296,862 68%
Bexar 125,852 46%
Nueces 14,300 27%
Fort Bend 71,947 86%
Galveston 12,598 19%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County Increased EV % Increase
Tarrant 154,176 50%
Williamson 35,187 46%
Denton 57,644 49%
Collin 66,128 43%
Montgomery 34,875 50%


2004-2008 Change in Registered Voters

Counties Carried by Kerry

County Increased RV % Increase
Travis 24,231 4%
El Paso 16,787 5%
Hidalgo 35,395 13%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County Increased RV % Increase
Dallas -23,140 -2%
Harris 3,284 0%
Bexar 22,477 2%
Nueces -2,769 -1%
Fort Bend 44,638 18%
Galveston 3,131 2%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County Increased RV % Increase
Tarrant 40,843 4%
Williamson 31,633 16%
Denton 36,825 11%
Collin 55,116 15%
Montgomery 27,829 13%


2004 Election Results

Counties Carried by Kerry

County Bush Kerry % Bush
Travis 147,885 197,235 43%
El Paso 73,261 95,142 44%
Hidalgo 50,931 62,369 45%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County Bush Kerry % Bush
Dallas 346,246 336,641 51%
Harris 584,723 475,865 55%
Bexar 260,698 210,976 55%
Nueces 59,359 44,439 57%
Fort Bend 93,625 68,722 58%
Galveston 61,290 43,919 58%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County Bush Kerry % Bush
Tarrant 349,462 207,286 63%
Williamson 83,284 43,117 66%
Denton 140,891 59,346 70%
Collin 174,435 68,935 72%
Montgomery 104,654 28,628 79%


Where Texas Counties are Located

Travis – Austin
El Paso – El Paso
Hidalgo – McAllen (Lower Rio Grande Valley)
Dallas – Dallas
Harris – Houston
Bexar – San Antonio
Nueces – Corpus Christi
Fort Bend – West Houston
Galveston – Galveston
Tarrant – Fort Worth
Williamson – Round Rock (North of Austin)
Denton – Denton (North of Dallas)
Collin – NE of Dallas
Montgomery – North of Houston

2 posted on 11/03/2008 3:26:31 PM PST by Zakeet (Obama-Pelosi-Reid -- the Axis of Taxes)
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To: Zakeet

Florida showing the same. Now Texas. A trend is starting and will continue. Pumas crossing over and voting McCain.


3 posted on 11/03/2008 3:27:12 PM PST by jrooney (I am not voting for Spread the Wealth/Senator Government. I am voting for the War Hero and Baracuda.)
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To: Zakeet

The only question might be that, knowing that Osama never had a chance of carrying Texas, did his campaign put the same effort into the GOTV effort that they might put out in competitive states?


4 posted on 11/03/2008 3:29:40 PM PST by johniegrad
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To: Zakeet

What gives me hope is that Texas is NOT a swing state yet conservatives turned out in huge numbers. Where I voted I promise you there were few obama voters in line.


5 posted on 11/03/2008 3:30:53 PM PST by Terry Mross
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To: jrooney

Been out of town on business for ten days.....lost touch with FR...I did not know Florida early polling exit data showing good for McCain....that it excellent.


6 posted on 11/03/2008 3:31:06 PM PST by maeng
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To: jrooney

The Florida results would be more compelling to me since this is a battleground. As for Texas, tough to rally when you feel your vote might not make an impact. Still, overall impressive results for Texas


7 posted on 11/03/2008 3:31:31 PM PST by GerardKempf (Let's Get Over This)
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To: jrooney

I don’t mind the good news a bit believe me. I’m still enraged by the attempt to suppress military votes in VA GRRRRR! To Arms! Fight!


8 posted on 11/03/2008 3:31:48 PM PST by toddausauras
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To: jrooney

Plus the Operation Chaos voters who were GOP but registered RAT for the primaries and didn’t switch back. I’ll be watching my county specifically since it is heavy GOP, but i leterally taked to a ton of people who switched parties to participate in operation chaos.


9 posted on 11/03/2008 3:31:59 PM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature (If You Have A BRAIN - You'll Vote For MCCAIN)
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To: johniegrad

Goodness no. Not much of anything. I get a robocall occasionally, but only from congressional candidates. It would be a waste of resources.


10 posted on 11/03/2008 3:32:21 PM PST by Jedidah
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To: GerardKempf

See my post #4. Why did all these conservatives turn out when McCain has the state sewed up?


11 posted on 11/03/2008 3:32:57 PM PST by Terry Mross
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To: GerardKempf

See my post #4. Why did all these conservatives turn out when McCain has the state sewed up? I think obama is the one person in the world who stirred up the conservative base more than Hillary would have.


12 posted on 11/03/2008 3:33:26 PM PST by Terry Mross
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To: Zakeet

Early voting was certainly up in my county, Coryell, which is about an hour north of Austin and includes a portion of Fort Hood. I voted on the 20th, the first day of early voting.


13 posted on 11/03/2008 3:33:44 PM PST by TXBlair (Once upon a time there was a man named Ned Lamont. The end.)
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To: Jedidah

That’s what I thought. However, I suppose looking at it another way, one could say it was extremely good news with as many Republicans voting without the need to do so to carry the state.


14 posted on 11/03/2008 3:34:25 PM PST by johniegrad
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To: GerardKempf
"Still, overall impressive results for Texas"

Everyone is motivated here -- protest vote. NOBAMA!!!!!
15 posted on 11/03/2008 3:34:58 PM PST by DRey
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature

In Texas, you don’t even register with a party. You just choose the primary you want to vote in. So there’s no “switching back” to be done.

(Voting in one party’s primary does, however, preclude voting in the other party’s runoff if there is one.)


16 posted on 11/03/2008 3:34:58 PM PST by Jedidah
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To: Terry Mross

I am so blessed to live in Texas where rugged individualism is paramount to government handouts. Texas has been known as a low tax, low services state.

However, with the influx of millions of illegals, I fear that we may eventually go blue. When that happens America will be lost. Until then....GOD BLESS TEXAS!


17 posted on 11/03/2008 3:35:16 PM PST by lone star annie
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To: johniegrad

Local, judicial, and congressional races.


18 posted on 11/03/2008 3:36:10 PM PST by Jedidah
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To: Zakeet

I’ll be voting early in Texas - 7:00 a.m tomorrow morning.


19 posted on 11/03/2008 3:36:14 PM PST by fwdude ("...a 'centrist' ... has few principles – and those are negotiable." - Don Feder)
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To: Jedidah

Yeah. Tough to know what to make out of this.


20 posted on 11/03/2008 3:37:42 PM PST by johniegrad
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To: maeng; All

While interesting, Obama no doubt didn’t spend much money on GOTV in Texas, so it is hard to translate these results into a battleground state.


21 posted on 11/03/2008 3:37:49 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: johniegrad
did his campaign put the same effort into the GOTV effort that they might put out in competitive states?

I have NEVER so many adverts before in Texas. Granted, I don't have a TV, but I visit folks that do. I have seen more political adverts this season than ever before. Especially demoncratic presidential adverts.

/johnny

22 posted on 11/03/2008 3:37:49 PM PST by JRandomFreeper (God Bless us all, each, and every one.)
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To: jrooney

I voted early with my wife (both Mccain Palin) in Harris County. If you vote in the Dem primary in Texas do they automatically change your registration — I was registered Republican, wondering if they changed my registration?


23 posted on 11/03/2008 3:38:23 PM PST by model B (attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference -- W. C.)
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To: JRandomFreeper

Bizarre.


24 posted on 11/03/2008 3:39:33 PM PST by johniegrad
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To: All

Has anyone seen any recent early voting data from Florida or any other battleground states? I saw one LA Times Bloomberg poll taken in Florida late last week that showed McCain up by 3 points over Obama, 49-46, but haven’t seen anything more recent than that.


25 posted on 11/03/2008 3:40:07 PM PST by voxitar (Maverick/Barracuda 2008!)
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To: Jedidah

Cool. Less hassle when this is over.


26 posted on 11/03/2008 3:40:31 PM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature (If You Have A BRAIN - You'll Vote For MCCAIN)
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To: model B

If you voted for Hillary in the primary, I think they count you as a statistical Dem till the end of the year.

That may well be one factor that has screwed up national polls this year, if pollsters weighted their polls based on how many voted in each party’s primary.

Since McCain sewed things up quickly, there were massive numbers of people who voted in the Democratic primaries who might not have if there had been competitive races in the GOP primaries.

Thus, a presumption on the part of pollsters that all those extra voters were indeed Democrats may have seriously skewed their numbers.


27 posted on 11/03/2008 3:42:28 PM PST by Jedidah
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To: jrooney

Important Question: Does this study subdivide by precints within counties... that might give us even better info as different parts of counties lean Democrat/Republican?


28 posted on 11/03/2008 3:46:07 PM PST by beanshirts
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To: Zakeet

Your numbers don’t tell the story for this year or for 2005. In 2005 general election, Republicans lost every office on the ballot in Dallas County, including voting in the majority for the Democrat gubernatorial candidate. In 2004, in Dallas County,Bush only received 10,000 more votes than Kerry. Expect Dallas County to go for Obama; Harris County may go for Obama, too. Republicans are going to lose state house and senate seats. I wish this outcome would not happen, but I think it will based on 2005 numbers.


29 posted on 11/03/2008 3:46:34 PM PST by Marcella (Cardinal birds visiting my rose garden make more sense than either pres. candidate..)
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To: Terry Mross
What gives me hope is that Texas is NOT a swing state yet conservatives turned out in huge numbers.

This is hugely important. Although Texas will not go dem by a long shot, we need to "run up the score" here so as to counterbalance states like California and NY. Obama wants to claim a popular vote win nationwide. If he wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college by two votes, who knows what kind of pressure could be brought on electors in December? Particularly if there has been "blood in the streets" as some have intimated. Add in recount chaos as in 2000, and we've got a combustible situation on our hands.

The best thing is to win both popular and electoral votes and avoid trouble. VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!!!

30 posted on 11/03/2008 3:46:44 PM PST by ishmac (Houston near UST)
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To: Terry Mross
Why did all these conservatives turn out when McCain has the state sewed up

Why? Don't know. Maybe we want our vote to count. If we don't vote, we have no say in the future.

31 posted on 11/03/2008 3:48:09 PM PST by CindyDawg (Pray before you vote.)
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To: model B

People do not register as members of a party in Texas. The way it works is that anyone who votes in the March Republican Primary during an even year is a member of the Republican Party for the next two years [unless you file something to leave the party], and the same for the Demo Party.


32 posted on 11/03/2008 3:48:24 PM PST by Stat-boy
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature
Plus the Operation Chaos voters who were GOP but registered RAT for the primaries and didn’t switch back. I’ll be watching my county specifically since it is heavy GOP, but i leterally taked to a ton of people who switched parties to participate in operation chaos.

Yep, that's why I'm registered as an independent so I could participate in the Democratic Primary.

33 posted on 11/03/2008 3:49:05 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: lone star annie

Houston here. I was born in Arkansas but got to Texas as fast as I could.

retsignguy...thank you. Seems a lot of people feel like they have to say that. Maybe they really feel it. I don’t.


34 posted on 11/03/2008 3:49:43 PM PST by Terry Mross (If Obama wins this may be my last post.)
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature

I and my wife switched and didn’t switch back. 2 Dems(Chaos Not Real) for McCain/Palin


35 posted on 11/03/2008 3:50:23 PM PST by Greg223
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To: Zakeet

Zakeet, I think I only have one nit to pick - and that is that assumption that because Harris County went for Bush in 04, that increased turnout in 08 means Harris county looks good for McCain. I’m not so sure. The word on the street is that the vast majority of newly registered voters in Harris county are black and hispanic, and likely to vote for Obama.

As a long-time Texas resident, my evidence is only anecdotal, but I have some friends who volunteer at precincts in Harris County and they are saying don’t be surprised if it turns purple if not outright blue.

I hate being a nattering nay-bob of negativity, so I will say that for the other counties, I agree with your analysis....the early voting numbers in counties that went for Bush in 04 seem encouraging.


36 posted on 11/03/2008 3:53:23 PM PST by voxitar (Maverick/Barracuda 2008!)
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To: MinorityRepublican; Greg223

That is what the MSM wont talk about. The PUMA factor, lets say 10%. Plus Op. Chaos, lets say 2% and the moderate democrats, lets say 5%, that is a modest 17% of the voting electorate. Plus the gains in Catholic and Jewish voting blocks, say 5% each, and you are talking about hundreds of thouusands of votes, not to mention, increases in men overall. (not sure about women) but I do not see how Obi is even in this thing except for the fact that the MSM and the Pollsters are working to make it so.


37 posted on 11/03/2008 3:54:46 PM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature (If You Have A BRAIN - You'll Vote For MCCAIN)
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To: Terry Mross
Why did all these conservatives turn out when McCain has the state sewed up?

Republican senator John Cornyn had a well financed and determined challenger - who is evidently getting his clock cleaned.

FYI: Fort Bend county is where Sugar Land is located - Delay's district.

38 posted on 11/03/2008 3:56:02 PM PST by SeeSharp
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To: lone star annie
I am so blessed to live in Texas where rugged individualism is paramount to government handouts. Texas has been known as a low tax, low services state.

Me, too!

Another biggie that makes me proud is-- with ZERO state income tax we have a stable housing market and $11 Billion state surplus.

WE HAVE NO DEMOCRATS ELECTED TO STATE WIDE OFFICES IN TEXAS AND WE ARE DOING VERY WELL, THANK YOU!

39 posted on 11/03/2008 3:58:45 PM PST by lonestar
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature
In case you haven't seen this, yet: Texas Early Voting and the "Operation Chaos" Effect.
40 posted on 11/03/2008 4:01:13 PM PST by Lord Basil
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To: voxitar
The word on the street is that the vast majority of newly registered voters in Harris county are black and hispanic, and likely to vote for Obama.

According to the Secretary of State, there were only 3,284 more registered voters in Harris County in 2008 than in 2004.

41 posted on 11/03/2008 4:15:08 PM PST by Zakeet (Obama-Pelosi-Reid -- the Axis of Taxes)
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To: Zakeet

Can someone please answer my question?

When do they tabulate all of the early votes? Are they put in some secret location and then brought out when the polls close?

Or, do they start counting all of the early votes when they receive them?

I would appreciate your help!


42 posted on 11/03/2008 4:23:50 PM PST by sociallyunacceptable (Charlie's tax problem)
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To: IllumiNaughtyByNature

Yep. I was also part of Op Chaos. Registered as a Dem, but wife and I voted for Mac last week.


43 posted on 11/03/2008 4:27:14 PM PST by Tuxedo ((((--- In Stereo Where Available ---))))
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To: Zakeet

I live and voted in Tarrant County (Arlington) and the lines have been unreal. For the time I can remember I had to stand in a long line for early voting. I would like to hope that with the big turnout country wide McCain’s voters are going regardless of what the media is tell them.


44 posted on 11/03/2008 4:39:23 PM PST by engrpat
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To: Zakeet

My wife called 23 pages of folks in Texas listed as soft Reps and Indies. The response was overwhelmingly McCain.


45 posted on 11/03/2008 6:17:06 PM PST by grumpa (VP)
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