Texas Early Voting FINAL Turnout Results – Great News for the GOP!

Texas Secretary of State ^ | November 3, 2008 | Self

[Zakeet]

All of the MSM/Liberal University poll heavily oversample Democratic voters on the premise Democrats are so enthused over Obama they will turnout in record numbers, whereas Republicans are so discouraged and/or disgusted with Bush/McCain they will not vote in similar proportions. This is a critical assumption. If it is not correct, the polls will significantly overstate Mr. Obama's expected vote totals.

Early voting data released by the Texas Secretary of State for the 15 counties with the largest population shows the MSM polling assumption is dead WRONG. In fact, the opposite of what should have happened under the MSM scenario took place. A larger percentage of the people in traditionally Republican counties voted than persons in traditional Democratic counties, AND the increase in the percentage of early voters was greatest for the so-called red counties.

Consider the following:

1. There was a huge increase in Texas’ early voting turnout – about 49 percent – from 2.4 million in 2004 to 3.55 million this year.

2. At the close of early voting on Friday, the early vote stood at 47 percent of State’s entire 2004 election turnout.

3. The early voting increase was greatest in Houston area – up 71 percent compared to 2004.

   This is likely due to in part to Hurricane Ike (people voting when they can as they are still cleaning up after the storm). The turmoil in the energy market also probably plays significant role – oil prices are falling and the Democrats are responsible for obstructing domestic oil exploration. The energy industry is a huge part of the Houston economy.

4. Excluding Houston and its Western Suburbs as outliers, early voting was up by:
   • Only 33 percent in counties carried by John Kerry in 2004

   • 42 percent in counties where George Bush received 50-60 percent of the vote (primarily Dallas and San Antonio)

   • 48 percent in counties where George Bush received more than 60 percent

   Despite the much heralded Democratic voter enrollment drives, the number of registered voters did not changed much in four years – and has actually increased most in areas carried by George Bush in 2004. According to the Secretary of State registered voters were:
   • Up 6 percent in counties carried by John Kerry in 2004

   • Unchanged in the major cities (down 2% in Dallas, unchanged in Houston and up 2% in San Antonio)

   • Up 9 percent in counties where George Bush received more than 60 percent

In other words, if data for the second largest state is representative of the rest of the country, the polls are screwed!

A summary of the data is posted in the comments below. The raw data can be obtained from the Office of the Texas Secretary of State at the following links:

2004 Early Voting

2008 Early Voting

2004 Election Results

[Zakeet]

Here are some real numbers you can use to evaluate the MSM push polls.

Of course, Texas isn't considered a swing state in this election, and we don't know for sure how the votes will break until they are counted tomorrow night, BUT Texas is the second largest state in terms of population and we do have our share of retirees, minorities and other groups considered key voting blocks.

Enjoy.

[Zakeet]

2004 Early Voting

Counties Carried by Kerry

County	Reg Voters	Early Voters	% Early Vote
Travis	584,949	217,428	37%
El Paso	371,856	96,420	26%
Hidalgo	269,811	61,970	23%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County	Reg Voters	Early Voters	% Early Vote
Dallas	1,231,291	346,729	28%
Harris	1,937,072	436,896	23%
Bexar	908,466	274,786	30%
Nueces	201,707	53,031	26%
Fort Bend	254,364	83,965	33%
Galveston	185,911	64,714	35%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County	Reg Voters	Early Voters	% Early Vote
Tarrant	918,656	305,666	33%
Williamson	200,344	77,142	39%
Denton	321,700	116,632	36%
Collin	369,412	153,566	42%
Montgomery	214,098	70,023	33%

2008 Early Voting

Counties Carried by Kerry

County	Reg Voters	Early Voters	% Early Vote
Travis	609,180	298,873	49%
El Paso	388,643	114,765	30%
Hidalgo	305,206	87,366	29%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County	Reg Voters	Early Voters	% Early Vote
Dallas	1,208,151	508,070	42%
Harris	1,940,356	733,758	38%
Bexar	930,943	400,638	43%
Nueces	198,938	67,331	34%
Fort Bend	299,002	155,912	52%
Galveston	189,042	77,312	41%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County	Reg Voters	Early Voters	% Early Vote
Tarrant	959,499	459,842	48%
Williamson	231,977	112,239	48%
Denton	358,525	174,276	49%
Collin	424,528	219,694	52%
Montgomery	241,927	104,898	43%

2004-2008 Early Voting Increase

Counties Carried by Kerry

County	Increased EV	% Increase
Travis	81,445	37%>
El Paso	18,345	19%
Hidalgo	25,576	41%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County	Increased EV	% Increase
Dallas	161,314	47%
Harris	296,862	68%
Bexar	125,852	46%
Nueces	14,300	27%
Fort Bend	71,947	86%
Galveston	12,598	19%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County	Increased EV	% Increase
Tarrant	154,176	50%
Williamson	35,187	46%
Denton	57,644	49%
Collin	66,128	43%
Montgomery	34,875	50%

2004-2008 Change in Registered Voters

Counties Carried by Kerry

County	Increased RV	% Increase
Travis	24,231	4%
El Paso	16,787	5%
Hidalgo	35,395	13%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County	Increased RV	% Increase
Dallas	-23,140	-2%
Harris	3,284	0%
Bexar	22,477	2%
Nueces	-2,769	-1%
Fort Bend	44,638	18%
Galveston	3,131	2%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County	Increased RV	% Increase
Tarrant	40,843	4%
Williamson	31,633	16%
Denton	36,825	11%
Collin	55,116	15%
Montgomery	27,829	13%

2004 Election Results

Counties Carried by Kerry

County	Bush	Kerry	% Bush
Travis	147,885	197,235	43%
El Paso	73,261	95,142	44%
Hidalgo	50,931	62,369	45%

Counties Where Bush Received 50-60 Percent of the Vote

County	Bush	Kerry	% Bush
Dallas	346,246	336,641	51%
Harris	584,723	475,865	55%
Bexar	260,698	210,976	55%
Nueces	59,359	44,439	57%
Fort Bend	93,625	68,722	58%
Galveston	61,290	43,919	58%

Counties Where Bush Received More Than 60 percent of the Vote

County	Bush	Kerry	% Bush
Tarrant	349,462	207,286	63%
Williamson	83,284	43,117	66%
Denton	140,891	59,346	70%
Collin	174,435	68,935	72%
Montgomery	104,654	28,628	79%

Where Texas Counties are Located

Travis – Austin
El Paso – El Paso
Hidalgo – McAllen (Lower Rio Grande Valley)
Dallas – Dallas
Harris – Houston
Bexar – San Antonio
Nueces – Corpus Christi
Fort Bend – West Houston
Galveston – Galveston
Tarrant – Fort Worth
Williamson – Round Rock (North of Austin)
Denton – Denton (North of Dallas)
Collin – NE of Dallas
Montgomery – North of Houston

[jrooney]

Florida showing the same. Now Texas. A trend is starting and will continue. Pumas crossing over and voting McCain.

[johniegrad]

The only question might be that, knowing that Osama never had a chance of carrying Texas, did his campaign put the same effort into the GOTV effort that they might put out in competitive states?

[Terry Mross]

What gives me hope is that Texas is NOT a swing state yet conservatives turned out in huge numbers. Where I voted I promise you there were few obama voters in line.

[maeng]

Been out of town on business for ten days.....lost touch with FR...I did not know Florida early polling exit data showing good for McCain....that it excellent.

[GerardKempf]

The Florida results would be more compelling to me since this is a battleground. As for Texas, tough to rally when you feel your vote might not make an impact. Still, overall impressive results for Texas

[toddausauras]

I don’t mind the good news a bit believe me. I’m still enraged by the attempt to suppress military votes in VA GRRRRR! To Arms! Fight!

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

Plus the Operation Chaos voters who were GOP but registered RAT for the primaries and didn’t switch back. I’ll be watching my county specifically since it is heavy GOP, but i leterally taked to a ton of people who switched parties to participate in operation chaos.

[Jedidah]

Goodness no. Not much of anything. I get a robocall occasionally, but only from congressional candidates. It would be a waste of resources.

[Terry Mross]

See my post #4. Why did all these conservatives turn out when McCain has the state sewed up?

[Terry Mross]

See my post #4. Why did all these conservatives turn out when McCain has the state sewed up? I think obama is the one person in the world who stirred up the conservative base more than Hillary would have.

[TXBlair]

Early voting was certainly up in my county, Coryell, which is about an hour north of Austin and includes a portion of Fort Hood. I voted on the 20th, the first day of early voting.

[johniegrad]

That’s what I thought. However, I suppose looking at it another way, one could say it was extremely good news with as many Republicans voting without the need to do so to carry the state.

[DRey]

"Still, overall impressive results for Texas"

Everyone is motivated here -- protest vote. NOBAMA!!!!!

[Jedidah]

In Texas, you don’t even register with a party. You just choose the primary you want to vote in. So there’s no “switching back” to be done.

(Voting in one party’s primary does, however, preclude voting in the other party’s runoff if there is one.)

[lone star annie]

I am so blessed to live in Texas where rugged individualism is paramount to government handouts. Texas has been known as a low tax, low services state.

However, with the influx of millions of illegals, I fear that we may eventually go blue. When that happens America will be lost. Until then....GOD BLESS TEXAS!

[Jedidah]

Local, judicial, and congressional races.

[fwdude]

I’ll be voting early in Texas - 7:00 a.m tomorrow morning.

[johniegrad]

Yeah. Tough to know what to make out of this.