If I were george bush, I’d use this as an excuse to go in and confiscate all weapons grade nuclear fuel in BOTH countries...pakistan AND india. According to UN law, they are both in violation by merely possessing these things.
That would send a VERY CLEAR message to iran, would it not?
What’s wrong with my idea?
Precedent and a BILLION people?
India shutting down all companies within its country that have U.S. ties effectively grinding much of our customer and technical support industries to a stand still. On top of that, code being developed in India does not get delivered to U.S. companies, lines of business start backing up; down stream U.S. companies do not get what they contracted for and grind to a stand still due to no new improvements (or bug fixes).
We no longer are ramped up the way we used to be in the 90's for "support".
Wouldn't be end times fo the U.S. economically, but it would hurt for good while until the U.S. companies can re-gear and re-tool U.S. staff.
>>>>What’s wrong with my idea?<<<<<<
It’s unilateralist, doesn’t meet the World Test, and people won’t like us.
When Victor Davis Hanson discusses the suicidal decision by Athens to attack Syracuse in the middle of the Peloponnesian War he says that the modern equivalent would be the United States, in the middle of the War on Terror, to decide to attack India. And yet this is exactly what you advocate.
"If I were george bush, I’d use this as an excuse to go in and confiscate all weapons grade nuclear fuel in BOTH countries...pakistan AND india. According to UN law, they are both in violation by merely possessing these things. That would send a VERY CLEAR message to iran, would it not? What’s wrong with my idea?"
Your idea does not take into account a high probability of an immediate 'use them or lose them' reaction by both countries. The only question then would be 'against whom?'
It would not fly. Pakistan maybe, India no.
Pakistan feels it needs nukes to defend against India. India needs nukes to defend against Pakistan AND China.
India's problem is that it needs a proficient, modern army, but the idea of lots of young men with excellent military training rotating back into civilian life at the end of their terms might makes the oligarchy very nervous.
Well, we have no casus belli against either country at this point, sovereign countries possess the right to develop their armed forces to their own dicretion, and if you think that UN law should bind a sovereign nation you are no conservative.
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Pakistan has a 520K Army with 500k in reserve. They have 2300 tanks, 1500 pieces of towable arty and 1400 SAMS.
India has a million man Army with 800K in reserve. They have 63 armored regiments.
They both have multiple usable nukes.
How exactly do you expect us to 'go in and confiscate' anything?
1) It would be impossible. American does not possess the capability to take over the nuclear weapons capability of India and Pakistan at the same time. That is, unless we want to resort to full-scale strategic nuclear attacks on both countries, and if President Bush is not willing to even squeek about Obama's birth certificate, there is no way he will advocate a strategic strike against BOTH India and Pakistan. That would send a VERY CLEAR message to iran, would it not?
2) The only message it would send to Iran is that it doesn't need to be acerbic ...after all, the US is willing to destroy itself! What’s wrong with my idea?
3) Easy! If we could 'confiscate' the weapons grade nuclear fuel from India and Pakistan, then we could simply just skip that and confiscate the nuclear material from Iran! After all, if we are omnipotent enough to waltz in and nab all the baddie-fuel from India and Pakistan, then Iran should be a breeze! After all, Iran is not a nuclear-armed saber rattler (yet) like Pakistan is, and while it may be anti-American it does not have the huge masses of anti-American sentiment that Pakistan has (actually, outside Iranian leadership, most of Iranian youth is actually pro-American. Pakistan, on the other hand, has a festering level of anti-American sentiment in the populace). Also, the Iranian military is not as large or as sophisticated as the Indian military, and (looking at Pakistan) does not have the support of the Chinese.
I advocated confiscating weapons grade nuclear material OF BOTH COUNTRIES. Presumeably, india would be willing to cooperate once they are convinced that we mean it and proof is given that pakistanis were losing their nukes too. My idea(although I did not put this in my post) was that we could help persuade india by helping them in a war against pakistan AFTER we have all the nukes.(secretly of course)
4) Oh ...you are forgetting that the MAIN purpose of India's nuclear weapons is NOT PAKISTAN! It is due to CHINA. Thus, even if India was hair-brained enough to give up its nuclear weapons if you could 'convince' Pakistan would be hair-brained enough to do the same, India would still refuse unless you somehow managed to have China also give up all of its nuclear ability. The entire strategic depth of India's nuclear ability is due to China ...Pakistan got its nuclear ability, in turn, due to India (coupled with assistance from China to ensure that India would face more than one capable foe). Thus, you need to come up with a plan for 'confiscating' Chinese nuclear material, since that is the main reason India even has nukes in the first place.
I think india would gladly eliminate all nukes from the equation if they were going to go to war against pakistan.
5) No! It would only 'gladly eliminate all nukes from the equation' if you also took away all Chinese nuclear capability. Unless you do that, India would not cede its weapons. India's strategic depth, its quest to get submarines from Russia with nuclear attack capability, it's foray into better ballistic missile technology, etc, is China-centric in mind. SHEESH, you people have no immagination or creativity whatsoever.
6) I do not think it is lack of imagination. Probably a lack of day-dreaming. India's main strategic worry is China. They've fought several wars, and they still have some border issues with them. India and China are the antagonistic regional super-powers. They are rapidly spending billions trying to gain more control of the sea-lanes, and the Indian ocean (why China is opening up a naval port in Pakistan). A lot of the spending patterns show that India is taking a totally China-centric approach (China is concentrating more on a US-denial approach). There is no way India would give up its nuclear capability unless you waved your magic wand and had China give up its capabilities.
More importantly, taking Pakistan's abilities would be quite interesting. Oh, and if you are able to confiscate their abilities and send a message to Iran, that would mean you are more than capable of doing the same to Iran (it would be much easier). Then why is nothing being done? Why is nothing being done to North Korea?
Maybe everyone has no imagination as you say, or maybe it is more difficult than you make it seem to 'confiscate' stuff without magic wands and pixie dust.