Posted on 12/11/2008 12:19:18 PM PST by traumer
Dow 4,000. Food shortages. A bubble in Treasury notes. Fortune spoke to eight of the market's sharpest thinkers and what they had to say about the future is frightening.
Nouriel Roubini Known as Dr. Doom, the NYU economics professor saw the mortgage-related meltdown coming.
We are in the middle of a very severe recession that's going to continue through all of 2009 - the worst U.S. recession in the past 50 years. It's the bursting of a huge leveraged-up credit bubble. There's no going back, and there is no bottom to it. It was excessive in everything from subprime to prime, from credit cards to student loans, from corporate bonds to muni bonds. You name it. And it's all reversing right now in a very, very massive way. At this point it's not just a U.S. recession. All of the advanced economies are at the beginning of a hard landing. And emerging markets, beginning with China, are in a severe slowdown. So we're having a global recession and it's becoming worse.
Things are going to be awful for everyday people. U.S. GDP growth is going to be negative through the end of 2009. And the recovery in 2010 and 2011, if there is one, is going to be so weak - with a growth rate of 1% to 1.5% - that it's going to feel like a recession. I see the unemployment rate peaking at around 9% by 2010. The value of homes has already fallen 25%. In my view, home prices are going to fall by another 15% before bottoming out in 2010.
For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
Like CNN stock?
I'm not impressed. Even I figured it out five or six years ago.
“For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets”
This would have been excellent advice 12 months ago—
I was one of the fortunate ones- I got out of the stock market Jan. 20th 2008— went to a fixed account-it’s the only right move I’ve made with regards to the market in a long time.
8 really, really happy predictions:
1. DOW 15000
2. Obama is indicted & impeached
3. Gasoline $1.00 gallon
4. Hillary fired from Sec State
5. GM develops a popular car
6. Venezuela has a coup
7. Iran has a coup
8. North Korea has a coup..............
ping
Possibly this explains the spike in gun sales? Up 38% I heard somewhere....
These predictions only serve to lower expectations for Obambi.
Only for 12 months? I'd say 12 centuries..............
Unfortunate that lib professor, Dr. Doom, didn’t step up to the plate years ago when Barney Frank and Chuckie Todd and the rest of the know-nothing liberals were strong arming banks to take on these terrible risks.
Yep! Thanks.
Nonsense. Just yesterday we were told that the bottom of the stock market is now and there won’t be a better time to buy. Buy. BUY. Buy what? GM. LOL
Wonder why they didn’t talk to Peter Schiff? Dow at 4000 is optimistic.
And despite all of this doom and gloom, Obama and the Dem marjority will still push through a kyoto-like global warming scheme that alone would devastate the economy even if it were strong, along with nationalized healthcare which would have the same result. So we get a double dose of socialism on top of the bad economic news. I’m with Rush - this is a bad sitcom.
Did you get out at the time because you saw the credit crisis coming, or were you just fortunate enough to be rolling over a 401(k) or IRA at the time, and decided to play it safe?
"Farmers cannot get a loan to buy fertilizer right now."
My in-laws are farmers, and that is complete baloney. Maybe farmers can't go to AIG, BofA, or Credit Suisse and get a loan for fertilizer, but there are plenty of smaller banks that can and will loan money. Most of these banks never bought into the mortgage-backed securities, and aren't suffering right now.
I'm with you.
Ever since we moved away from 10-20% down, 30 year mortgage with a payment no more than 25% of your take home pay, I've been saying this was gonna come back and bite us in the ass.
Here's a kicker that shows just how far down the road we've gone: through some volunteer work I do, I know a homeless guy. He has a PO box and regularly receives credit card apps. He writes something nasty on the application, sticks it in the prepaid return envelope and drops it in the mailbox. LOL.
As GOVERNMENT GROWS, the Economy SHRINKS.....D.U.H.
So what they are saying is that it's worst it will still be better than France's or Germany's unemployment rate has been for the past 10 years?
On January 8 I did the exact same thing. It may have been my one and only right move too, but if there can be only one in a lifetime this was the right one.
Now the question is when to jump back in for the upswing. With the market this low, even small point drops are too painful.
All giving Obama advice as if he believed in ‘capitalism’.
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