Posted on 04/12/2009 2:00:22 AM PDT by Red Dog #1
--Snip-- The Congressional Budget Office projects that the U.S. economy won't get back to full-trend growth until 2015 -- and that the full-trend growth rate will be just 2.3% a year. Even with the full $787 billion of the Obama administration's stimulus package in effect, according to Northwestern University economist Robert J. Gordon, it could take until 2012 or 2013 for the economy to recover to the level of output in 2007 before the recession hit. --Snip--
(Excerpt) Read more at articles.moneycentral.msn.com ...
This won't hold for long. There isn't any real value to back all this up.... Recent bump inspired by Wells Fargo profits...ha! where do you think that comes from? Wire transfers from illegals sending cash home....sending what value there is left out of the country....Now? Treasury is basically printing money on paper whose value isn't even the cost of printing it.
Anyone still riding this wave, don't be surprised when it hits a reef.
If Obama is re-elected don’t look for it that soon.
I don’t think that this is a good time to put a lot of stock in the stock market, so to speak. IOW the government and the financial and auto sectors are more heavily intertwined than they’ve been since the Great Depression, and maybe ever (and they’ve always been tight since after the GD). I don’t know how reliable the stock market is as an indicator of growth, at least not with so much uncertainty and tax-payer money flying around.
Just in time, my company will no longer match my 401K starting in July. I will no longer contribute. No one else I work with will be contributing either, because everyone is disgusted with this. I think the bottom is gonna fall out as these things happen.
U.S. economy won’t get back to full-trend growth until 2015
Sarah will be president then and it will take her 3 years to straighten out the mess the mutt scum dog made of everything.
We definitely oversold a bit and are retracing that. We’re still down about 50% from the high though - nothing to be proud of.
I am guessing 2011. It should be back on track by then...however, we will just have to wait and see.
Obama administration’s stimulus package may keep stocks on a yo-yo for some time unless some magic money appears to help spending so much for the great planer.
Even without a match one should try and save at least 15%. If one has a time horizon greater than 5 years then now is an excellent time to dollar cost invest in stocks
I stopped contributing to my 401K in November after the election. Quite frankly I believe that 401K contributions have been looked at as a continuous infusion of cash into the Stocks and Bonds market for quite some time now.
If employees start to pull out of the 401K system for any reason in great numbers. I expect congress to come up with a MANDATORY contribution system so as to keep that cash flowing in.
They are also going to demand that individuals who have a net worth over a certain amount, or have a certain level of annual salary (such as over $US250,000) surrender their US passports. They will prevent them from leaving the US. They fear a tax drain and a brain drain FROM the United States; people who will just SHRUG and go John Galt. Big Brother wont like that at all and is going to erect a fiscal, economic and tax Berlin Wall, IMHO, so the major producers will be forced to continue to support the livelihoods of the non producers, i.e. socialism. That is when the producers en masse will say, screw it, if I cannot get out of here with my money which is dwindling through back breaking taxation via Government Largesse, I am just plain no longer going to work.
The hard part here is being able to tell the difference between what's true and what everyone knows. Everyone knows that stocks are oversold but we can't know that because no mortal knows the "true" value of stocks.
On the other hand, it's a fact that major indexes are down about 50% below their peak in Oct.'07, but right now we're in a bull market. The traditional definition is a 20% rise, and with the dow 37% above last month's bottom we've got almost twice that.
Living overseas can totally free a person from virtually all state income and sales taxes, but the US is still the best place in the world to do business. I really dread the day when moving my work to some place like London gives me a reduction in taxes.
....I think Juback is right....it’s not over yet....look at this 2 year chart of the DOW....a series of upticks followed by new lows....based on that pattern, the next new low will be below 6400.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=dji&sid=0&o_symb=dji&freq=1&time=9
I hadn’t thought of a “Berlin Wall” scenario. It does have potential for a future scenario.
I’m sure that our ministry of propaganda can convince the 54% +- of the country that it is just fine to enslave the producers so as to keep the non-producers in their accustomed life style.
Someone pull up a weekly chart of the DOW and try and convince me we are in a bull market. A 15% retracement off the 14000 highs does not a bull market make. Its just another suckers bounce.
exactly why I am putting more money in the market. It stinks, we all lost a lot of cash, but unfortunately, the real losers will be the ones who sold off in a panic. The easy money of the last 15 years won’t be there any more (at least I hope not, it was all artificial... I’ve been saying it for 10 years). Gaining real value in the market takes time. A lot of it. Maybe this will finally put an end to day trading due to it being far too risky.
Hehe.. wishful thinking I guess.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/incredibly-shrinking-market-liquidity.html
Friday, April 10, 2009
The Incredibly Shrinking Market Liquidity, Or The Upcoming Black Swan Of Black Swans
Posted by Tyler Durden at 3:40 PM
"Anyone who is doing anything sensible right now is either losing money or is out of the market entirely." These are the words of a quant trader, who is seeing something scary in the capital markets. Scary enough to merit a warning that we could be on the verge of another October 87, August 2007, or January 2008.
Let's back up. I recently posted a chart which tracks equity market neutral strategies: in essence a cross section of quant funds for which there is public performance tracking. The chart is presented below.
There is not much publicly available data to follow what goes on in the mystery shrouded quant world. However, another chart that tracks the market neutral performance is the HSKAX, or the Highbridge Statistical Market Neutral Fund, presented below. As one can see we have crossed into major statistically deviant territory, likely approaching a level that is 6 standard deviation away from the recent norms.
What do these charts tell us? In essence, that there is a high likelihood of substantial market dislocations based on previous comparable situations. ,p. Go to the website for charts and the full post. It's an eye-opener. The new highs are on significantly lower volume, and it's being held up by Goldman Sachs, probably with our tax dollars. THIS is what should get people out in the streets: our government is being run by Goldman Sucks.
LLS
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