Posted on 04/23/2009 8:55:32 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Long Odds? Three Scenarios for the Economy's Path
By DAVID WESSEL
There is no doubt where the economy is now. "By any measure, this downturn represents by far the deepest global recession since the Great Depression," the International Monetary Fund declared Wednesday.
But there's more than the usual uncertainty about where it is going. The key is the U.S. Even though its slice of the world economy is smaller than it once was, it's still huge. The U.S. led the world into the abyss, and it will lead the world economy out of it.
But how fast and when?
The alphabet can help to imagine the possibilities and the path of the economy. There's the letter V: the kind of quick rebound that usually follows a deep recession. Or U: a longer recession and slow recovery. There is L: years of painfully slow growth. And W: a temporary upturn as the economy feels the jolt of fiscal stimulus that quickly wears off. Finally, there's the big D, not the shape but another Great Depression.
With history a guide, consider three starkly different scenarios.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Ping!
I think “L” is a best-case scenario.
Of course, instead of L, we may have C (collapse.)
As long as O is in charge, pretty much accept D.
Depression (D) with an L to follow....
Depression will be caused by a massive spike in energy prices caused by an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and massive instability in Pakistan caused by a Taliban takeover, along with a collapse in commercial real estate and credit card markets. It will take years to come back, hence the “L”, could even be a D with a W (Fluctuations). You don’t want to know how we would come out of this, as that is really bad (Look at World War II as an example).
L: L-shaped recession
U: U-shaped recession
V: V-shaped recession
D: depression
I: inflation(or hyperinflation)
C: collapse
LUV DIC, ping!
Agree.
L for economy and stock market both is what will happen. We will not get back to 14,000 in the Obama years.
Why? The Obama policies make fast growth in the private sector impossible.
Enough with the Perez Hilton stuff, already! /sarc>
LI, followed by D and/or C.
Depending on if we elect S.P. and true conservatives to Congress.
(And if the Big O declares Martial Law in response to multiple Pakistan/Iranian supplied nuke strikes on Europe and the US.)
NO cheers, unfortunately.
You could get back to 14,000 if the dollar were devalued enough... say $1.00 = one peso.
imho the key to restoring a healthy economy is getting off dependence on foreign oil. That will happen imho in 5-10 years.
How? Green energy billion boondoogle fraud payoff to O cronies?
You really need a repub landslide and developing our onshore reserves which are 4 times the Saudis oil reseves.
O’s socialism will have to be undone too. No recovery or market recovery in a socialist police state. The vermin essentially wiped out Detroit.
One thing’s for sure: it won’t be unicorns, rainbows and cotton candy.
Bump
I’m in favor of offshore drilling but if you type in “alge oil” in google news and read a couple pages of the flow of news you’ll see that that’s a fast moving industry. From what I can tell its fast approaching price parity with oil. There have been several manufactureing break throughs ins the last two month. A Microsoft funded company called Solenez says they have already reached price parity.They did this without government money.
Besides that just about every military base has a biorefinery being built—that turns everything from wood chips to cornstalks into biofuels.
From what I can tell biofuels will go from about 5% of the national energy output to 15% of the national energy output in 3 years.
Thanks. I am all for anything to screw the Saudis. We have 4 times their reserves onshore with shale oil, coal diesel and other sources. All that land the Dems keep locking up as Fed land is full of energy but it is a payoff to the Saudis.
I hope Solenz screws the Saudis or anyone else.
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