Posted on 04/25/2009 12:53:20 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
As the recession deepens, economic forces continue to drive consolidation in the retail industry, debt comes due and increasingly discerning consumers buckle down on discretionary spending, an analysis by 24/7 Wall Street predicts that a number of well-known brands are likely to disappear before the end of 2010.
To determine which brands are most likely at risk, 24/7 Wall Street examined 100 large brands it believes are in trouble and, for each, looked at public financial records, sales information, analyses from industry experts, the competitive landscape in each’s industry and the likelihood that a brand could be sold off in the case of parent-company financial trouble.
The analysis points to the most serious peril for the following 12 brands which, 24/7 Wall Street says are most likely to disappear by the end of 2010:
1. Budget rental cars (CAR): Though Budget’s parent company currently says it will continue to operate both the Avis and Budget brands, increasing debt problems, a weakening travel industry and intensifying competition will nonetheless cause the demise of the Budget brand, 24/7 Wall Street predicts.
2. Borders books (BGP): Declining sales, heavy losses and pressure from competitors Barnes & Noble (BKS) and Amazon (AMZN) - especially from new e-book readers - may prove too much for the brand when large amounts of debt come due in April 2010.
3. Crocs footwear (CROX): The decline in stock price from $72 per share in late 2007 to $2 today, ongoing financing issues, consumer belt-tightening and the end of a fad, leads to 24/7 Wall Street’s declaration that “Crocs won’t make it through the year.”
4. Saturn vehicles: As General Motors (GM) faces bankruptcy, 24/7 Wall Street said it will almost certainly shutter the brand, whose sales dropped 59% in the first quarter of 2009.
5. Esquire Magazine : While the Esquire brand is plagued with ad revenue declines and intense competition in the crowded men’s-magazine market, parent company Hearst faces problems on both the newspaper and magazine fronts and will not hesitate to close down underperforming brands such as this one to bolster its overall position.
6. Old Navy apparel: 24/7 Wall Street said that parent company Gap (GPS) - which currently markets the Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic brands - is “a three-brand company living in a two-brand body” and cannot continue to sustain all three in the midst of steep, across-the-board sales declines. Old Navy, which is the weakest brand, will most likely not survive.
7. Architectural Digest Magazine: Amidst drastic cutbacks in high-end home sales and expensive redecorating, the once-healthy publication has lost 47% of its ad pages this year. Faced with other financial problems in its newspaper and magazine businesses, parent company Conde Nast will not be able to sustain the brand, according to 24/7 Wall Street.
8. Chrysler brand cars: Facing similar problems to GM as it teeters on the edge of bankruptcy, Chrylser LLC will not be able to support product design, manufacturing and marketing for a brand with many less sales than Dodge or Jeep as it gears up for restructuring.
9. Eddie Bauer (EBHI): Faced with declining sales, a stock price under $1, major debt problems and a CCC- rating, analysts say its lack of differentiation in the marketplace could prove the last straw. 24/7 Wall Street said it could be out of business by mid 2009.
10. Palm (PALM): A brand that 24/7 Wall Street says has been “at death’s door for some time,” faces life-threatening competition from RIM and Apple, and can only survive in the unlikely event that it can expand the smartphone market by increasing demand for its “Pre.” Dismal financial results and association with Sprint, the already-#3 US wireless carrier, will spell complete disaster.
11. AIG: The once-venerable insurance giant’s highly publicized financial problems, involvement in the financial crisis and subsequent bailout and indebtedness to the federal government, make it the “one large brand in America which almost everyone would like to see disappear,” according to 24/7 Wall Street. Because many of the company’s operating units do not bear the AIG name, they will continue to do business as they distance themselves from the “toxic” AIG parent brand, which eventually will go away.
12. United Air Lines (UAUA): As the travel industry faces unprecedented overcapacity in light of the recession, two of the large US carriers will soon need to merge to avoid bankruptcy. While it is not clear yet how such a consolidation will shake out, the stocks of UAL, American and US Air have plummeted. 24/7 Wall Street believes that United - the weakest of the carriers, soon faces a “merger,” which will most likely mean the end of the line for the brand.
Can't happen a minute too soon.
United Airlines Delenda Est.
The first leg of a two-leg sequence gets to the hub late, the flight you’re supposed to connect with leaves on time, without you.
United Airlines Delenda Est.
Well, I guess that’s why I cannot stand US Air - Never ontime and cancels flights without telling customers.
I have no idea where my dad will get his clothes if Eddie Bauer goes out of business.
I’m glad Crocs will be gone. Worst fad ever.
I was also on one of their flights when they ran out of ice ... didn't matter to me, as I already had my drink, but how hard is it to put enough ice on the darned airplane.
I barely made my connection on that flight, too. And the folks on the ground at the transfer point had no interest in helping transferring passengers find their connecting flight.
US Air Delenda Est, too.
Ha!
Cato the Elder would be pleased.
For all its liberalism, Esquire's recent "How to be a man" issue was a gem from cover to cover.
For all its liberalism, Esquire's recent "How to be a man" issue was a gem from cover to cover.
The worst was being locked in a plane at O’Hare for over four hours, no food, no water, no nothing. When I complained to the stewardess that my legs were becoming numb, she very loudly said “Maam, have you been drinking?”, making sure that every passenger could hear her. (it was nine in the morning.....I had NOT been drinking)
I never really found out why there were more than a dozen planes stacked up waiting to take off. I finally heard that O’Hare allows United to overbook their departures and that waits like that were the norm.
My legs are still rather messed up. I will never ever fly through O’Hare again.
“Blackie-O”?!?!?! That’s LOL politically incorrect!
I disagree. Crocs are fantastic. The problem was the kock-offs. My kids all have fake Crocs, gotten for between $2 and $10, while the name-brand Crocs were $30-45. They must have had a crappy copyright/patent law firm, because those knock-offs were available less than a year after Crocs came out.
They’ll go on welfare and be happy about it.
I haven’t flown since 2000. It’s not good for my blood pressure.
I’ve loved that forever although it got a little minimalist for me.
Just think of it as the ultimate minimalism.
Blackie O!
Now that’s FUNNY!
I’ll miss Borders and Old Navy if they go. I used to shop at the original Borders store in Ann Arbor in my college days - back when there was just one. These days I like them for their interesting selection of DVD’s. I shop at Old Navy for my teenage sons, and for fun stuff for myself. Lots of simple things in cheerful colors for summertime. Oh well.
It is politically correct. Afterall they say she is another Jackie-O but since there can be only 1 Jackie-O, Blackie-O fit her perfectly to give her promoters so seek.
I believe that the same thing happened with boat shoes when they were popular - the cheap knock offs came shortly after.
I can think of a handful of adjectives to apply to AIG. 'Venerable' isn't one of them.
If the Feds would simply ket the market work, AIG's toxic assets would have already ceased to be a problem.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.