Battle for Iran Shifts from Streets to the Heart of Power

The Observer ^ | Sunday 28 June 2009 | Peter Beaumont

[STE=Q]

The power struggle inside Iran appears to be moving from the streets into the heart of the regime itself this weekend amid reports that Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani is plotting to undermine the power of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rafsanjani's manoeuvres against Khamenei come as tensions between the speaker of the parliament, Ali Larijani, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also appeared to be coming to a head.

[PapaBear3625]

One problem of Islamic ruling regimes is that they are inherently unstable over the long term, due to their own internal demographics.

In Islam, a wealthy and powerful person can have multiple wives, and they generally do. With these wives, they have many children. King Abdullah of Saudi has 22 children. Ali Khamenei of Iran has 6 children. Osama bin Laden's dad had 54 children.

When these children grow up, they have an expectation of continuing in the lifestyle of their parents. But that lifestyle is based on the revenue stream from oil exports, which is finite. Each succeeding generation can expect to get a thinner slice of the pie.

Members of the ruling elite have an incentive to try to maintain or increase their slice of the pie by eliminating some other faction of the ruling elite, and taking their share.

[STE=Q]

Members of the ruling elite have an incentive to try to maintain or increase their slice of the pie by eliminating some other faction of the ruling elite, and taking their share.

Your conclusion(above)seems well founded.

Very Interesting post!

STE=Q

[PapaBear3625]

In Islam, the laws for inheritance were set down by Mohammad, and therefore are unchangeable. Mo's sayings are laid down in the Quran and the Hadiths, with laws of inheritance in Chapter 80. (The preceding link is to a site maintained by the Muslim Students Association of USC, and can be presumed to be authoritative).

The bottom line is that how the father's estate is to be divided among the sons and daughters means that the next generation gets a specified fraction. When they die, their descendants get their split. If the father's income is based on a fixed source which does not grow over time, then unless he limits himself to one or two kids, he inheritors will find themselves with a smaller piece of the pie than he enjoyed, and will not be able to enjoy their father's standard of living.

In Medieval Europe, the nobility avoided this situation with the doctrine of primogenitor, where the eldest surviving son got the land and title, and the other kids had to find their own way in the world, either by marriage, conquest, or joining the Church as priest or nun. Even then, the nobles were continually fighting among themselves to expand their fortunes.

In the Arab world, they found themselves after WW2 with all this unearned wealth in the form of oil deposits under their feet. The oil is going to run out eventually, they know it, and they fear what happens when they can no longer support their people in the style they've become accustomed to.

In the short term, they've held off the inevitable by exporting their underclasses to Europe, but the European welfare state is going to collapse soon (on the order of 5 years)

[STE=Q]

Thanks for your post.

... Very enlightening!

STE=Q

[Marine_Uncle]

Rather enlightening and interesting information regarding the Iranian political structure. Perhaps things regarding ownership of the regime where starting to unfold back in 2006 as suggested. But regardless of what actions are taken by who, it would appear there is little hope for a total change in how their system is constructed other then a military coup that would favor re-writing the constitution along more fully democratic parlimentary government or even a Republic say similar to what the USA enjoys.
Then setting up a system of nation wide voting for popular candidates.
All the bad apples along with their oppressive support groups must be ousted in order for Iran's populace to become free in the sense we take for granted.

[Marine_Uncle]

You make some well ground points that should never be ignored as how the Islamic states via. their monarchies or other forms of controlled government operate.

[Marine_Uncle]

""This move is meant to protect the regime from the dangers that threaten it,"
It always comes down to those powers that be that are protecting their interests. They cleverly put together a regime backed up by in their eyes a constitution that gives them the right to kill, steal, deceive, and brutally rule over their subjects. The stupid so called students of way back when where how should I say. Dopes. As stupid as half the American voters most probably.

[PapaBear3625]

After 9/11, I made a point of reading the Quran cover-to-cover, and have read large sections of the Hadith and other Islamic references. I figure that we're in a fight with these guys, and it's a good idea to understand where they're coming from, and what they're likely to do.

I very much recommend people reading the Hadiths, especially Chapter 52 (Jihad) and 82 (Punishment of Disbelievers at War with Allah and His Apostle)

[Marine_Uncle]

I had partly accomplished likewise during the mid 80's. Of course wading through some books on Islam, as well as comparisons between Islam and Christianity etc., reading downloaded versions of the Quran and Hadiths etc..
Nothing that has come to past has surprised me, including so many very intense gulfs between the various sects of the cult.
Lastly. However, with such a hard work schedule and little time often other then trying to parse FR articles, I have little time to become yet again absorbed in these studies.
3:30AM to be at work at 5PM, one day, another day having to stay till 11PM sort of kicks one's brain into low gear, when one walks, runs, twists about for eight hours on hard concrete floors and has to answer hour after hour of questions by folks who have not a clue as to how to wire/rewire their homes, along with a vast array of electrical questions and others things daily at a very busy Home Depot. It is a wonder I find the time and brain power to respond to you good folks as often as I do. So regiment study is out of the question at this point.