Posted on 07/02/2009 8:20:16 PM PDT by dangus
Blanche Lincoln, AR 45% Public Policy Polling, March Barbara Boxer, CA 48% Survey USA, June 12-14 Michael Bennet, CO 34% Public Policy Polling, April 24-26 (trails Rep. Beauprez) Christopher Dodd, CO 37% Quinnipiac, April (trails several) Roland Burris, IL 17% Public Policy Polling, April 24-26 (likely to lose primary) Harry Reid, NV 34% Mason-Dixon, June 18-19 Kirsten Gillenbrand, NY 24% Marist (disapproval rating also below 50%) Byron Dorgan, ND (only poll in this red state was commissioned by DailyKOS)
Also in possible danger but above 50% approval: Daniel Inouye, HI leads Republican Gov. Linda Lingle, but he'll be 86, and may not campaign well Arlen Specter, PA (could face bruising primary)
No cherry-picking! All polls were most recent major-media polls, not just the most favorable.
More readable:
Blanche Lincoln, AR 45% Public Policy Polling, March
Barbara Boxer, CA 48% Survey USA, June 12-14
Michael Bennet, CO 34% Public Policy Polling, April 24-26 (trails Rep. Beauprez)
Christopher Dodd, CO 37% Quinnipiac, April (trails several)
Roland Burris, IL 17% Public Policy Polling, April 24-26 (likely to lose primary)
Harry Reid, NV 34% Mason-Dixon, June 18-19
Kirsten Gillenbrand, NY 24% Marist, June (disapproval rating also below 50%)
Byron Dorgan, ND (only poll in this red state was commissioned by DailyKOS)
Possible danger
Daniel Inouye, HI leads Republican Gov. Linda Lingle, but he’ll be 86, and may not campaign well
Arlen Specter, PA (could face bruising primary)
Barbara Boxer, CA 48%The only problem is the moribund CA GOP is unable to field an electable candidate, or even mount a statewide campaign.
Sadly we are a broken party. Our organization is shot. It will take years to rebuild back to where we were at 2004. Too much infighting right now. Witness the saga over Steve Schmindt releasing e-mails of Sarah Palin.
I predict that the Neg gain in the senate will be anywhere between 4 and 7.
I predict that the gain in the house will be 35-38.
There will be a Dem Majority in both places, but there will likely be a major tug of war for all sides.
well demoralization is gonna help alot,,is that your thought.
WOOT WOOT!!! Pinky Reid at 34%!!!!
In addition to that, Osamabama will give us PLENTY of ammunition. The solid Ds will still vote D, but the swings, the votes that decide elections, are getting very tired of him already.
You forgot Deleware.
I’m not even sure that being a “broken” party is a bad thing. Last times the Republican Party was in as much disarray as they’ll be in 2010 were 1978 and 1994. Not bad years for conservatism. Cocky insiders are far worse than scrappy fighters.
I agree. Let’s forget about Boxer in this blue state.
Unseating Dodd and ousting Specter will be major accomplishments.
Also we have our own open Senate seats ripe for Dem pickup.
Missouri
Ohio
New Hampshire
Florida
The Senate does not look good. I am more optimistic with the House and Governorships. Haley Barbour did say a few months ago, GOP renewal will occur at the Governorships.
Talk to me about Delaware. I didn’t forget; I had no data and figured it was Democratic lock. If you have anything to share, please do so. Do you think RINO Castle has any competition? Is he better than Minner, even if he is a RINO? I’m counting RINOs in Connecticut, Illinois and New York as potential pick-ups, so I could count Castle. Do you have any polls?
Any idea why Gillebrand is doing so poorly when she has been in office only a short while?
Hopefully the reason is something other than “not liberal enough for New York.”
I’d love for the GOP to take that seat, but if not, I’d prefer Gillebrand to Maloney.
I am suspicious of the broken party refrain I am seeing on threads. And the constant condemnation of people in the party,,it feels subversive. LIke people are trying to gin up defections to a third party or hopelessness.
I think O is going to present a wonderful opportunity for a grand slam next year. ANd if we allow fractures to happen over inability to have a big tent, we won’t capitalize on it.
THe constant refrain of throw out the rinos, the pop off remarks about anyone who is not enamored with a particular candidate, the insults, etc. All designed to foment hopelessness and ill feelings.
I personally think that anyone would be better than Obama. Even McCain would have been better. And those who insist on their candidate, who threaten not to vote, who insult and act like thugs to people who support someone else do nothing but cause us to lose.
End of rant.
Actually I DID find this: Public Policy Polling puts Castle over Atty General Joseph Biden, Jr., the presumptive nominee. Of course, I’m not sure I’d not rather have a Democrat than a Republican. RINOs mean taking the blame but still not being able to govern.
I was careful to mention Gillebrand’s negatives are also below 50%, but they are higher than her positives. I think liberals don’t trust her because she used to be for gun rights, fighting illegal immigration, etc. Conservatives don’t like her because she is no longer for gun rights, fighting illegal immigration, etc. I think if liberals were counted as supporting her over a Republican candidate, she would certainly be over 50%.
I think six of these elections will likely go to Republicans...both Dodd and Spector are gone. I also think that the Hawaii magic of Inouye will finally be used up. The curious races will be Burris in IL and Lincoln in Ark...neither have much popularity. I suspect at the last minute...that our guy “Huck” will be running in Arkansas and easily win. There just aren’t any big-name Republicans left in IL that stand out at this point.
So then you find a candidate, and run them (with help from the establishment where you can find it, but without if they are unwilling or unable to help): I think the tea party movement is building a good opportunity..
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