Posted on 11/01/2009 5:29:37 AM PST by MaestroLC
Just days before selecting their next governor, New Jersey voters are clearly divided. The only sure bet from the latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll is that the winner will be either a Republican or a Democrat.
As of Friday night, challenger Chris Christie held an insignificant one point lead over incumbent Jon Corzine among likely voters, 43% to 42%. Two weeks ago, the race was tied at 39% each. Independent Chris Daggett has faded to 8%, after reaching 14% in the previous poll.
Republican voters give 86% support to their party’s nominee, compared to 6% for Corzine and 5% for Daggett. Democratic voters give 77% support to their party’s nominee, compared to 11% for Christie and 9% for Daggett.
“This election will be defined by turnout like few others before it. Many Democrats are sitting on the sidelines and not considered to be likely voters at this point. They may be unenthusiastic about their governor, but can they be prodded to the polls for other reasons? If not, Christie may eke out the win,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
A key dynamic in this race has been the vacillations of independent voters. The GOP nominee Christie now garners a 51% majority with this important voting bloc compared to just 29% for Democrat Corzine. The major shift is a drop in Daggett’s support from 22% of independent voters two weeks ago to just 10% in the current poll.
“Independent voters are simply unhappy with the job Governor Corzine has done over the past four years. After a brief flirtation with Daggett’s candidacy, many seem to have returned to Christie as their best chance for change,” said Murray.
Jon Corzine’s job performance rating stands at 35% approve to 55% disapprove among likely voters, including an anemic 21% to 69% among independents.
The governor’s personal rating stands at 39% favorable to 49% unfavorable, which has been fairly stable since July.
The Republican’s ratings, though, have rebounded from the steady slide they experienced throughout the year. Currently, voter opinion of Chris Christie stands at 44% favorable to 36% unfavorable. It had dipped to 40% favorable to 41% unfavorable in mid-October.
“Political operatives live by the mantra that negative ads work. That may be true, but there is also a tipping point where too many negative ads can backfire. Perhaps we have reached that point in this race,” said Murray.
Fully 73% of New Jersey voters say that Jon Corzine has unfairly attacked Chris Christie. A smaller majority of 54% say Christie has done the same against the governor. Independents are more likely to say that Corzine (78%) rather than Christie (46%) has launched unfair assaults. Unsurprisingly, Republicans agree, with 82% saying Corzine has attacked unfairly and 37% saying the same about Christie. On the other hand, Democratic voters are equally as likely to blame both Corzine (62%) and Christie (68%) for unfair attacks in this campaign.
The poll also found that independent candidate Chris Daggett’s personal rating is now 22% favorable to 22% unfavorable, which is less positive than the 28% to 15% rating he held two weeks ago. A majority (56%) of likely voters still say they don’t know enough to form an opinion about him.
The shift in voter opinion of Daggett is particularly pronounced among Republicans, going from a net positive 29% to 15% in mid-October to a net negative 18% to 30% in the current poll. “It seems that a good number of Republicans have gone from seeing Daggett as a credible candidate to an unwelcome spoiler,” said Murray.
Some observers have speculated that the conservative wing of the Republican Party may withhold support for their nominee. However, the poll found that 90% of Republican voters who say they supported Steve Lonegan in the GOP primary are backing Chris Christie in the general election, which is statistically similar to the 95% who initially backed Christie in June and still support him today.
I hope you’re right!
We’ll know late Tuesday evening.....
I was thinking similar thoughts....How prevelant is voter fraud in NJ?
“I think Corzine is in serious trouble. “
That sample seems very skewed to the Dem side, and the fact that Christie leads so strongly with independents is a good sign that the undecideds will break his way. The incumbent needs to be at 50% to be safe and they tend to lose last-minute deciders.
Another thing - Daggett is just a stalking horse for Corzine ... his sole purpose is to split the vote so Corzine can win. If you dont like Corzine, the ONLY vote is Christie, as Daggett is Corzine’s only hope.
Undo the tweaks, which my be a 4pt Dem bias and its a 5 point win by Christie. Just a SWAG but ‘from our lips to Gods ears’.
“Corzine is a liberal, race baiting, socialist, freedom hating, gun bashing scumball.....”
Please, don’t hold back, tell us what you really think. lol.
Lonegan is urging all NJ citizens to vote for Christie to send a message to blue dog Democrats and Obama.
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