Time to lighten up and all be on the same side, everyone knows you're a good guy, just like everyone knows Bert and I don't want illegals either.
Enjoy the Holidays all the best to you and yours ;-). Cheers!
Posted on 12/23/2009 7:39:21 AM PST by SeekAndFind
What's a yield curve and why is it so important?
Well, the curve itself measures Treasury interest rates, by maturity, from 91-day T-bills all the way out to 30-year bonds. It's the difference between the long rates and the short rates that tells a key story about the future of the economy.
When the curve is wide and upward sloping, as it is today, it tells us that the economic future is good. When the curve is upside down, or inverted, with short rates above long rates, it tells us that something is amiss -- such as a credit crunch and a recession.
The inverted curve is abnormal, the positive curve is normal. We have returned to normalcy, and then some. Right now, the difference between long and short Treasury rates is as wide as any time in history. With the Fed pumping in all that money and anchoring the short rate at zero, investors are now charging the Treasury a higher interest rate for buying its bonds. That's as it should be. The time preference of money simply means that the investor will hold Treasury bonds for a longer period of time, but he or she is going to charge a higher rate. That is a normal risk profile.
The yield curve may be the best single forecasting predictor there is. When it was inverted or flat for most of 2006, 2007, and the early part of 2008, it correctly predicted big trouble ahead. Right now it is forecasting a much stronger economy in 2010 than most people think possible.
So there could be a mini boom next year, with real GDP growing at 4 to 5 percent, perhaps with a 6 percent quarter in there someplace. And the unemployment rate is likely to come down
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearmarkets.com ...
Yeah, the gold thing has me chuckling. I’m not a precious metals expert, but when every third commercial on TV and radio is yelling “buy buy buy!” it’s time to take a step back. And weren’t we just talking about unscrupulous mortgage brokers?
Gold is certainly in a bubble here and one sign is the ommipresent advertising. But gold is a risky market to play in because it’s relatively small and gold could still have a major spike up from here. The adage that a market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent is something shorts have to consider.
With near zero interest rates there’s no opportunity cost in holding gold. A strengthening dollar and a rise in interest rates would change that and maybe pop the gold bubble, but until there is some sign of that happening I’d leave gold alone.
The article said "...it was inverted or flat for most of 2006, 2007, and the early part of 2008, it correctly predicted big trouble..." So we're supposed to be impressed with a signal flashing in 2006 that says trouble, but not that year and not the year after. It's not until when the signal turns off, that's when we have trouble.
So whatever Larry Kudlow knows or doesn't know about economic indicators, it's for sure that he knows all about getting his dribble published and studied.
Ah, ZULU always brings something up if it's important to him. That means he doesn't have a problem at all with child molestation.
Disgusting!
That’s what I thought. There is an event, but not much of a signal
You are a really disgusting piece of human offal and that comment should not even be dignified with a response.
Obviously you are either an illegal alien yourself, are connected to one, or employ them.
expat_panama only brings up something if its important to him.
Interesting web page you creep. I see you are from Panama, not the U.S.
No wonder you approve of Kudlow and the globalists who have no problem with a nation without borders.
Panama wouldn’t even exist if it weren’t for Teddy Roosevelt, Yankee Gunboat Diplomacy and the Canal America built.
Time to lighten up and all be on the same side, everyone knows you're a good guy, just like everyone knows Bert and I don't want illegals either.
Enjoy the Holidays all the best to you and yours ;-). Cheers!
Sorry.
Have a nice Holiday also. :)
LOL! Thanks, and God bless you for starting my day with your cheer!
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