Posted on 12/23/2009 2:58:14 PM PST by Justaham
There’s no stopping this brother, don’t kid yourself. It’s all over except the posturing....
You don’t have to excerpt at Politico. I have DSL. It’s still takes too long to download.
I'm with you. We need something to stop this now not wait until the next election.
There are some that can't see the forest for the trees.
40 in the House? Ain’t gonna happen and forget the Senate.
U.S. Attorney Tom Marino is thinking of running against Carney.
Mmmm....If I were to cast a write-in vote, I would be hard pressed to choose between George Washington, James Madison or Thomas Jefferson. Thinking outside the ex-box, Patrick Henry is on my list as well. I like his fire.
Can you tell I am a Virginian?
A mention about Eugene Atkinson and that district... The then-25th district that sent him elected one of the most curious Republicans of the 1970s, one Gary Myers. Myers, essentially a non-politician, defeated a poorly-regarded Dem incumbent, Frank Clark in 1974, becoming one of the few GOP gains in the Watergate fiasco (ironically, Myers lost by 12% to Clark in 1972 in a district that Nixon carried 60-40%). Myers ran for reelection, and even as Carter carried it over Ford (54-46%), he beat Atkinson in his first Congressional run by a 57-43% margin. Myers then did something nobody in DC (and Michael Barone) could understand, after making a Dem-leaning House seat safe for the GOP, he just walked away after two terms, went back to his old job as a steel mill foreman.
Still, he left the GOP brand in such good stead that the GOP candidate performed quite well against Atkinson in 1978 (losing by just 4%, Atkinson only won 46% in winning). He became the most Conservative-voting Dem from PA in his freshman term, and won 67% in 1980 (Reagan didn’t win the district, losing to Carter, 45-48%). He was, however, well regarded by Pres. Reagan (after he was shot, Reagan called Atkinson who was on a radio talk show and made a personal appeal to get him to vote for his budget, which he did). The dilemma Atkinson faced for 1982 was twofold (just for starters). One, the GOP held control of redistricting in the state under Gov. Dick Thornburgh, and the state was set to lose two House seats. Atkinson opted to switch to the GOP in October 1981.
The switch was not without problems, since although his voting record was good (well, at least for a Dem). The local GOP in the district wasn’t hot about him, and he scored an unimpressive primary renomination of just 56-44%. The new 4th district was created for Atkinson, and had a slight GOP lean (but VERY slight, Reagan carried it just 47-46%). But he had the additional problem of looking like an opportunist (going from supporting Ted Kennedy to Reagan in the span of a year) and worse, because the economy was not yet reported to be “turning around” (which it wouldn’t be until AFTER the ‘82 midterms, how convenient for the Dems claiming Reagans policies weren’t working), that area swung hard to the Dems in November and Atkinson lost to the future infamous Democrat Joe Kolter by an embarrassing 60-39% margin (even as Atkinson outspent Kolter by a 3-to-2 margin).
Our controlling the legislature had no positive outcome, we went into the 1982 elections in PA with a 13R-11D-1 Vacant delegation with the intention of making the state into a 16R-7D delegation, but instead, the Dems emerged with a 13D-10R victory (we lost incumbents in the 3rd, 4th (Atkinson), 8th & 11th, failed to dislodge two Dem incumbents in the 7th and 18th). Indeed, the only gain of a Dem seat (and that solely due to the fact that the incumbent quit and made a quixotic run for Governor) was that of George Gekas in the 17th (Gekas, ironically, would be the sole victim in 2002 when it was presumed he’d be safe, and instead of forcing out Democrat Tim Holden whose seat was eliminated, Holden turned the tables, ran and beat Gekas).
Agreed,
Things ok in St. Augustine?
Went last year and stayed in a bed and breakfast right off the fort.Did the Ghost tour and had a great time.
Use to go there with my grand mom for lunch and just stare at the old brigde.
Exactly my point.
Honestly, I plan on going to my Congressman’s office. Anyone wanting to join me, is welcome to. I am furious about this bill, and I think our representatives and senators should have tens of thousands of people outside their offices for the duration of the Christmas break.
++++++++++++++++
Doughty, I love your enthusiasm. I don’t know if this will build to such a swell over Christmas - but why not weekly, building to daily, after that? We can build such a swell that will push all the way through to November...
Truly, this MUST be a historical time...for our kids and grandkids, for us, for Conservatives, for America.
I know Chris Carney....I live in his district.
Carney is not an ideologue....he is a politician first and will bend with the political wind.
I don’t think Carney would do this, but I can imagine some Dems switching parties just to vote for healthcare and make it “bipartisan”.
Did Reagan carry the district in 1984?
“Our controlling the legislature had no positive outcome”
What a kick in the pills. So few states had GOP control of redistricting.
Illinois was screwed by a 1 vote rat edge in the State Senate that eventually sent it to our ridiculous random name out of a hat tie breaker won by the rats. Viola 10 years of Madigan as House Speaker guaranteed and in US house highlights Dick Turban elected and Lane Evans elected in the seat where RINO Tom Railsback lost the primary.
I was about to presume it did, since under the 1982-92 lines, Reagan narrowly carried it in '80. But he actually lost it in 1984 by a 52-48% margin. Bush, Sr. lost it as well by a 54-45% margin. Barone observed it was one area that was clearly trending away from the GOP at the time (especially Beaver County, that went from Carter 55% to Reagan's 38% to Mondale 63% - Reagan 37% - the Anderson voters in '80 went to Mondale). In 1984, Reagan lost every westernmost county of PA except for Erie and Crawford. Fast forward to 2008 and it's the polar opposite. McCain carried every westernmost county (and even most of SW PA except for Pittsburgh's Allegheny) except for Erie (which went for Zero by a wide 59-39%, Reagan won it 51-48% in 1984). Even Murtha's district went for McCain, I believe the only Congressional district in the country to flip from Kerry to McCain. If SW PA continues that way, it's going to be returning to its original GOP roots that were firmly in place before the Depression.
Speaking of Railsback, I forgot one reason he lost renomination wasn’t due to ideology (and frankly, DIABLO would’ve been a better label, he was considered a strong social liberal, yet in a Reagan district, and one who won on the anti-LBJ landslide of 1966), but because he got caught up in the Paula Parkinson sex scandal. With redistricting, and despite the scandal, he carried the counties he had formally represented. But State Sen. Ken McMillan carried heavily the ones he had not giving him a narrow 51-49% victory. Lane Evans thought he was going to face Railsback (and, although decently funded, he was likely to be more a sacrificial lamb — actually, I don’t think he became well funded until Railsback lost). McMillan, by all accounts, should’ve been a fantastic candidate for us. He was a solid Conservative, highly articulate on all the issues, and was well-funded. Evans was considered highly inarticulate and was out of his depth, but yet he won 53-47% (McMillan still outspent him), I think partly because, at least in the ‘82 elections, being a stalwart Reaganite in a depressed district was a losing proposition. Barone wasn’t sure what to make of Evans, and pointed out Dem wins in that district were usually one term flukes, and he wanted to hedge his bets and not make a clear pronouncement if Evans would definitively lose in ‘84, merely putting the reader to the question, “can Evans pull it off ?” A little weasely, but I guess Barone didn’t feel he had enough info to make a *prediction.
(*Just as an aside, I thought it might be fun to comb over his editions to see where his predictions were dead on the money, and others that were really bad off. I saw some where he’d make a long-term prediction about a member well ahead of time saying how if they last, they could be in leadership, most notably in the first edition about David Obey of WI, who was barely into his second term, saying he would become Appropriations Chairman by “around 2004”, an audacious prediction given that was 34 years in the future, and only a small percentage of members make it past the 3-decade mark - he was off by a decade, though, as he became Chairman in 1993, and then not again until 2007, although Barone couldn’t have seen the soon-to-be Watergate Baby purge of the old-timers, which moved many Dems up the ranks a lot more rapidly, let alone the replacement of the old Dems in the South with Republicans in districts that had many former chairs. I looked up his prediction about Gingrich in his first term (1978), but he wasn’t sure about him, only again taking an Evans-style prediction, can he hold it ?)
Pa used to be great, 65% plus for Harding, Coolidge, and Loosver . It even voted for Hoover in '32.
Greene county in the SW corner had been nasty though, all data according to according to ourcampaigns.com. McCain won it by plurality, Bush won it '04 with a bare majority. Before that Nixon in '72 was the last to carry it. Before that Hoover in '28 which was the first time in 20th Century (or ever possibly) it voted Republican for President . For Governor it voted for Ridge in '98 by plurality the ONLY times before that were 1930 and 1926 (date for Governor goes back to 1796). For Senate it voted for Specter 3 times and once for Heinz in '88. I wonder what made it such an outlier back when SW PA was solidly Republican. The counties in West VA it borders are also more Republican than it. (if the data is right it looks like Marshall County West VA had some vote fraud going on, zero votes for Hughes in 1916 in very low turnout)
I remember Bush carrying Greene was reason enough for someone to write a newspaper article about it. Just like in 2000 when he was the first Republican President ever to carry Greenlee county Arizona, another nasty little bugger.
Unfortunately the area trended rattish and stayed that way. Looks like rat POTUS nominees have carried that district since Dukakis. Evans came close to defeat in '96 and '98 but Mark Baker couldn't get over the hump. And of course the rats shored it up in the 2001 redistricting.
David Obey of WI, who was barely into his second term, saying he would become Appropriations Chairman by “around 2004”,
Barone must have had it on good authority he was scumbag who would never retire and wanted to chair the committee. Probably from the horse's. who It's sick that 1994 is only time he's come anywhere near defeat his initial election. A Naval officer freeper Thunderstruck94 said he was thinking about running in 2012 against Obey.
I hope Sean Duffy or Ed Mielke beats him to the punch and takes him out in 2010. As a lord high pork master he ought to be targeted.
Probably some reasons why some of those counties are moving towards us is the population is declining, is much older, and the influence of the unions is waning. Greenlee Co. in AZ has lost 2/3rds of its population from its peak. It was a heavily mining area. At least one cluster of towns that used to be there (which would be a tourist attraction now) was wiped off the map because it sat on top of a massive mining area. I know, because I used Google Earth to look at the area and it’s gone now, replaced by a smaller, all-modern town that just looks like an average SW suburb. Look up Morenci on Google and they have a picture of the original town, and its totally gone. Because the entire county just has 6,000 (half of what it was in 1980), most of the political influence is negligable.
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