Posted on 01/03/2010 5:09:50 PM PST by blam
Economic Double-Dip? Try A Triple
by: Sold At The Top
January 03, 2010
Much of the bearish attention these days is focused on discerning a so called “double dip” shaping up as the next major macroeconomic trend yet a look back at many decades of recessionary circumstances shows scant evidence that such phenomena occur organically.
On the other hand, what is the true definition of a double dip?
How long or short does an expansion have to run between dips and what are the primary measures that determine the thoroughness and validity of that expansion?
The following chart shows the consumer price index for food goods running back to 1913 along with band overlays indicating each recession and depression.
Although there have been a good number of recessions since 1913 (nearly 20), since the Great Depression the only generally accepted occurrence of a “double dip” recession was the period between 1980-82 when former Federal Reserve chairman Volcker forced the condition as a means of stamping out a serious bout of inflation.
[snip]
I thought I would put down the numbers that showed up in this graph, so it would be easy to see here, on Free Republic. I'm using their numbers that they've gathered from public information from the government, along with the dates.
These numbers are not necessarily accumulative for each month, but stand for the total numbers during that particular one-year period of time. It's a "sliding one-year picture" of what's happening with the overall gains and losses here.
And then, also, I've put in the "Amount of Change" from the one-year rolling numbers -- to the following month and its one-year rolling numbers. The "Amount of Change" shows which way things are going, either up or down.
-- From 2006 to 2007 Amt Change Numbers Gain/Loss One-year Period running -- Bush Administration (blue is "gain" and red is "loss") -- [ xxx,xxx] 2,625,193 jobs gained (from January 2006 to January 2007) [- 298,315] 2,326,878 jobs gained (from February 2006 to February 2007) [+ 70,059] 2,396,937 jobs gained (from March 2006 to March 2007) [- 652,634] 1,744,303 jobs gained (from April 2006 to April 2007) [- 76,451] 1,667,852 jobs gained (from May 2006 to May 2007) [- 83,174] 1,584,678 jobs gained (from June 2006 to June 2007) [- 43,030] 1,541,648 jobs gained (from July 2006 to July 2007) [- 689,269] 852,379 jobs gained (from August 2006 to August 2007) [+ 406,589] 1,258,968 jobs gained (from September 2006 to September 2007) [- 831,750] 427,218 jobs gained (from October 2006 to October 2007) [+ 475,364] 902,582 jobs gained (from November 2006 to November 2007) [- 866,785] 35,797 jobs gained (from December 2006 to December 2007) -- From 2007 to 2008 Amt Change Numbers Gain/Loss One-year Period running -- Bush Administration (blue is "gain" and red is "loss") -- [+ 730,616] 766,413 jobs gained (from January 2007 to January 2008) [- 282,854] 483,559 jobs gained (from February 2007 to February 2008) [- 290,723] 192,836 jobs gained (from March 2007 to March 2008) [+ 835,152] 1,027,988 jobs gained (from April 2007 to April 2008) [- 564,156] 463,832 jobs gained (from May 2007 to May 2008) [- 365,996] 97,836 jobs gained (from June 2007 to June 2008) [- 142,705] 44,869 jobs lost (from July 2007 to July 2008) [- 44,384] 89,253 jobs lost (from August 2007 to August 2008) [- 640,611] 729,864 jobs lost (from September 2007 to September 2008) [- 62,975] 792,839 jobs lost (from October 2007 to October 2008) [-1,312,591] 2,105,430 jobs lost (from November 2007 to November 2008) [- 475,884] 2,581,314 jobs lost (from December 2007 to December 2008) -- From 2008 to 2009 Amt Change Numbers Gain/Loss One-year Period running -- Bush Administration/Obama Administration (Obama took office January 20th) -- [-1,353,106] 3,934,420 jobs lost (from January 2008 to January 2009) -- Obama Administration (blue is "gain" and red is "loss") -- [- 262,951] 4,197,371 jobs lost (from February 2008 to February 2009) [- 827,409] 5,024,780 jobs lost (from March 2008 to March 2009) [- 61,101] 5,085,881 jobs lost (from April 2008 to April 2009) [- 217,053] 5,302,934 jobs lost (from May 2008 to May 2009) [- 258,098] 5,561,032 jobs lost (from June 2008 to June 2009) [+ 21,849] 5,539,183 jobs lost (from July 2008 to July 2009) [- 14,452] 5,553,635 jobs lost (from August 2008 to August 2009) [- 393,556] 5,947,191 jobs lost (from September 2008 to September 2009) [- 215,645] 6,162,836 jobs lost (from October 2008 to October 2009)
SOURCE: Local Area Unemployment Statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Article - When Did Your County's Jobs Disappear?
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