Posted on 01/18/2010 12:49:41 PM PST by Maelstorm
BOSTON (FOX25, myfoxboston) - A poll released a day before the special Senate race shows Senator Scott Brown surging to a double-digit lead over Attorney General Martha Coakley in the race for the open Massachusetts Senate seat.
The shift in favor of the Republican Party is a potential disaster for President Barack Obama and his Democratic political agenda.
Brown has surged to a double-digit lead over Coakley in three Massachusetts communities identified as bellwethers, according to the latest SuffolkUniversitybellwether polling of the race for U.S. Senate.
Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody all show solid margins for Brown, the state senator running against Coakley. The cities were identified as bellwether communities because in the most recent "like election" - the November 2006 Senate race between the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and Republican challenger Kenneth Chase - the results in all three communities were within 1 percentage point of the actual statewide results for each candidate. Additionally, party registration in those cities is similar to the statewide voter makeup.
"Brown has continued to build on the momentum that we saw last week in the SuffolkUniversity statewide poll," said David Paleologos, director of the SuffolkUniversityPoliticalResearchCenter in Boston. "There's still a day left, and a number of factors, including weather, can affect turnout, but the latest bellwether polls suggest a solid lead for Brown."
SuffolkUniversity released a statewide poll Thursday, Jan. 14, that showed Brown (50 percent) leading Coakley (46 percent) by 4 points. The results showed a race within a margin of error of 4.38.
The bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:
Brown (55%) leads Coakley (40%) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2%, while 3% are undecided.
In Fitchburg, Brown (55%) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41%), with 2% for Kennedy and 2% undecided.
Peabody voters give Brown (57%), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40%), with Kennedy polling 1% and 3% undecided.
The bellwether polls are designed to predict outcomes and not margins. Suffolk's bellwether polls have been 96% accurate in picking straight-up winners when taken within three days of an election since 2006.
Results of the November 2006 survey in the three bellwether communities closely traced the final statewide outcome.
Those 2006 results were as follows:
· Statewide: Edward M. Kennedy (D), 67%; Kenneth Chase (R), 29%; blanks, 4% · Gardner: Kennedy, 68%; Chase, 30%; blanks, 3% · Fitchburg: Kennedy, 67%; Chase, 30%; blanks, 4% · Peabody: Kennedy, 67%; Chase, 29%; blanks, 4%
Party registration in the three bellwether communities largely mirrors statewide registration, with the following breakdown:
· Massachusetts statewide: Democrats, 36%; Republicans, 12%; unenrolled, 52% · Gardner: Democrats, 35%; Republicans, 12%; unenrolled, 53% · Fitchburg: Democrats, 34%; Republicans, 11%; unenrolled, 55% · Peabody: Democrats, 35%; Republicans, 9%; unenrolled, 56%
The Obama regime is dead. RIP.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus
GO GO GO!
I am guarded still, but it feels like a dream doesn’t it folks?
TED EFFING KENNEDY REPLACED WITH A REPUBLICAN?
Even just the seat being competative is a miracle no? LOL
Either way, how encouraging for Nov 2010!
I love seeing all these positive polls, but I don’t trust these lib bastards as far as I can throw Manchelle. Get out & vote all you people in MA! Especially all you older folks on Cape Cod! Don’t assume anything until Coakley has surrendered!
Right now? Rasmussen has Coakley up by 2? Are you kidding me?
I don’t know if it’ll be a blowout. I hope Brown can squeak out a win. He’ll have to overcome a lot of Dem cheating.
This is not looking good. I want to see 25%. 15% is too close. The farther apart, the better. Get out the vote, Massachusetts. Yeeehaaaaa!
Sounds good. No time to get complacent Bay Staters. Get out and vote the country is depending on you.
That’s how I’m seeing it.
Toss in a healthy chunk of your average J6P being utterly disgusted with the bribery and shenanigans the Dims were up to, and it adds up to a trouncing!
A week old poll. Obviously, Brown has surged way past that.
Red Steel wrote: “Its time for Marcia to look for a new day job.”
..... Don’t worry about Martha Coakley. The Dems will find her a nice secure judgeship on an appeals court with a comfortable six figure salary and a nice pension and health plan.
From to Coakley +31 in Nov. to Brown +15 today, according to Suffolk. 46 points is quite a surge!
I think Brown is more likely to win by +5 than +15, but I’ll take a win either way.
Tiebreaker: Coakley concedes by 9 pm ET.
we have to beat the margin of fraud.
Did Brown even have support from the alleged leaders of the RNC? (or do they still have RINO delusion syndrome)
Not the ones who work for a living, of course...their hands are far too rough and calloused. She only shakes hands with trust fund babies, patrician blue bloods and party apparatchik bureaucrats.
No he doesn't. Why is this being constantly repeated on FR with never, ever a link? He's on hannity and his website is up. He's made no prediction.
Like the regular Joes that go to Fennel Park...
I see what you did there. ;-)
Why are peddling a Ras POll that is OVER A week old ???????
What is you agenda here ?
This will be the turning point for Obama and the Democrats and they know it. It’s not quite a Midway but it’s definitely a Doolittle raid.
I wonder if Teddy is watching.....tehe..tehhheee....teehheeheheheheheheh.
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