Posted on 02/02/2010 3:03:33 AM PST by B-Chan
Scenario 1: Nuclear Detonation – 10-kiloton Improvised Nuclear Device 1-1
Casualties: Hundreds of thousands Infrastructure Damage: Total within radius of 0.5 to 3 miles Evacuations/Displaced Persons: 100,000 in affected area seek shelter in safe areas (decontamination required for all before entering shelters)
250,000 instructed to shelter-in-place as plume moves across region(s)
1 million+ self-evacuate from major urban areas Contamination Various levels up to approximately 3,000 square miles Economic Impact Hundreds of billions of dollars Potential for Multiple Events No Recovery Timeline Years
Scenario Overview: General Description – In this scenario, terrorist members of the Universal Adversary (UA) group plan to assemble a gun-type nuclear device using highly enriched uranium (HEU) stolen from a nuclear facility in another country. The nuclear device components are smuggled into the United States, and the device is assembled near a major metropolitan center. Using a delivery van, terrorists plan to transport the device to the business district of a large city and detonate it.
Detailed Attack Scenario – Culminating a 10-year effort, terrorists of the UA group finally succeed in acquiring a sufficient quantity of HEU to construct a simple, gun-type, improvised nuclear device (IND). The UA has been slowly acquiring, at great expense, HEU from various sources outside of the United States. The latest theft of 5 kilograms (~ 11 pounds) will likely be discovered at the next quarterly inventory at the primary facility, but by then the bribed security official, the UA terrorists, and the HEU will be long gone.
The carefully shielded HEU is transported to a UA camp overseas where UA operates with impunity. In an underground bunker, a nuclear weapons engineer and two technicians transform it, along with the earlier acquisitions, into the components required for a gun-type nuclear device. Other acquisition efforts have yielded all the necessary electronics, hardware, and propellant for the device. In fact, UA has built two nearly complete device systems with enough HEU for one functioning device. As a final test of the components, the engineer has assembled the complete device to check the fit of the components. He then disassembles it and reassembles the device with the second set of components. He disassembles that device and carefully cleans all of the electronics, hardware, and HEU to remove any trace of chemical propellant contamination. He reports to the UA Central Command that the nuclear device is ready. Central Command has already decided on ground zero: the center of a U.S. city. National Planning Scenarios FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Version 20.2 DRAFT
The components of the device will be transported to the United States in eight different packages: two sets of hardware, two sets of electronics, two separate packages of propellant (enough for two nuclear devices), a neutron source, and the HEU. The propellant, neutron source, and the engineer will be smuggled across the border with different groups of illegal immigrants. The device electronics and hardware, falsely labeled as various items of electronic equipment, will be shipped as cargo to several small businesses operated by members of a UA sleeper cell. Agents from the sleeper cell collect the engineer and the device components and transport them to a UA safe house in a rural area. Finally, the HEU is encased in a 2-inch thick lead canister and smuggled into the United States, hidden in the rear of a sports utility vehicle (SUV) that is driven by a trusted member of UA. The driver is ostensibly returning from visiting relatives just across the U.S. border. After entering the United States, he also drives to the safe house where a senior member of the UA Central Command and two suicide bombers meet him.
By the time the HEU shortage is discovered and reported to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), all eight packages, as well as the engineer, are safely across U.S. borders. The IAEA reports the theft of 5 kilograms (~ 11 pounds) of HEU to governments worldwide. In the United States, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary – after consultations with the Secretary of Energy, the Attorney General, and the Homeland Security Advisor – directs the U.S. Coast Guard and Bureau of Customs and Border Protection to increase vigilance at the borders. State and local homeland security authorities are also informed of the potential threat.
The nuclear device is assembled at the safe house. A used delivery van is purchased and painted to indicate that it belongs to a copier service company. A coded e-mail notifies UA Central Command that all is ready. UA Central Command generates a return coded e-mail that sets the time and place of the attack. A dry run of the route is made during Monday morning traffic to ensure the timing of the attack.
At 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning, the IND is loaded into the delivery van. The nuclear device is set with three ignition circuits: a manually activated detonator (disguised as a cell phone with power cord) to be carried by the passenger, a timer set to go off at 10:15 a.m., and a booby trap set to go off should anyone open the crate holding the IND. The crate is equipped with shielding materials to reduce the radiation signature. By 9:00 a.m., the vehicle enters the densely populated area, where the passenger arms the dead-man switch on the detonator. At about 9:30 a.m., the vehicle exits the freeway and when in place, the passenger detonates the 10-kiloton nuclear device. Most buildings within 1,000 meters (~ 3,200 feet) of the detonation are severely damaged. Injuries from flying debris (missiles) may occur out to 6 kilometers (~ 3.7 miles). An Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) damages many electronic devices within about 5 kilometers (~ 3 miles). A mushroom cloud rises above the city and begins to drift east-northeast...
How to Use the National Planning Scenarios:
Capabilities-Based Planning
In seeking to prepare the Nation for terrorist attacks, major disasters and other emergencies, it is impossible to maintain the highest level of preparedness for all possibilities all of the time. Given limited resources, managing the risk posed by major events is imperative. In an atmosphere of changing and evolving threat, it is vital to build flexible capabilities that will enable the Nation, as a whole, to prevent, respond to and recover from a range of major events. To address this challenge, DHS employs a capabilities-based planning process which is a planning process that occurs under uncertainty in order to identify capabilities suitable for a wide range of challenges and circumstances, while working within an economic framework that necessitates prioritization and choice. As a first step in the capabilities-based planning process, the Scenarios, while not exhaustive, provide an illustration of the potential threats for which we must be prepared. The Scenarios were designed to be broadly applicable; they generally do not specify a geographic location, and the impacts are meant to be scalable for a variety of population and geographic considerations.
HSPD-8 Implementation
The Scenarios will be used in the implementation of HSPD-8, “National Preparedness,” including the development of the National Preparedness Goal and the National Exercise Program. In helping to develop the National Preparedness Goal, the Scenarios provide the foundation for identifying the capabilities across all mission areas and the target levels of those capabilities needed for effective prevention, response and recovery to major events, such as those outlined in the Scenarios. Examination of the Scenarios leads to certain common functions that must be accomplished. The need for response organizations to move quickly and in a coordinated manner and the requirements to quickly treat mass casualties and to assist displaced residents are examples. This commonality implies flexible, adaptive, and robust capabilities to cope with diverse events and hazards. In addition, the Scenarios will be used as the design basis for exercises in the National Exercise Program. As a common foundation for exercise development, the Scenarios reduce the possisbility that agencies exercising the same basic type of event will exercise greatly different consequences which may lead to vastly different capability requirements and preparedness expectations. While not meant to be all-inclusive, the scenarios provide a basic set of common homeland security events and their related impacts that can be employed at the national level or by States and localities. Although certain areas have special concerns – for example, continuity of Government in Washington, DC; viability of financial markets in New York; and trade and commerce in other major cities – the Scenarios have been developed in a way that allows them to be adapted to local conditions. Agencies will not be limited to this set of Scenarios, and they will continue to be able to exercise scenarios that are not specifically included in the planning set. However, when exercising the basic events included in the Scenario set, the Scenarios provide a mutual starting point.
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Mission Areas:
The following Mission Areas were used to assist in scoping the response requirements generated by the scenarios.
Prevention/Deterrence – The ability to detect, prevent, preempt, and deter terrorist attacks and other man-made emergencies
Infrastructure Protection – The ability to protect critical infrastructure from all threats and hazards
Preparedness – The ability to plan, organize, equip, train, and exercise homeland security personnel to perform their assigned missions to nationally accepted standards – this mission area includes public education and awareness
Emergency Assessment/Diagnosis – The ability to achieve and maintain a common operating picture, including the abilitiy to detect an incident, determine its impact, determine its likely evolution and course, classify the incident, and make government notifications
Emergency Management/Response – The ability to direct, control, and coordinate a response; manage resources; and provide emergency public information – this outcome includes direction and control through the Incident Command System (ICS), Multiagency Coordination Systems, and Public Information Systems
Hazard Mitigation – The ability to control, collect, and contain a hazard, lesson its effects, and conduct environmental monitoring – mitigation efforts may be implemented before, during, or after an incident Evacuation/Shelter – The ability to provide initial warnings to the population at large and at risk; notify people to shelter-in-place or evacuate; provide evacuation and shelter support; and manage traffic flow and ingress and egress to and from the affected area
Victim Care – The ability to treat victims at the scene; transport patients; treat patients at a medical treatment facility; track patients handle, track, and secure human remains; provide tracking and security of patients’ possessions and evidence; and manage the worried well
Investigation/Apprehension – The ability to investigate the cause and source of the incident and identify, apprehend, and prosecute those responsible for terrorist attacks and other manmade emergencies
Recovery/Remediation – The ability to restore essential services, businesses, and commerce; cleanup the environment and render the affected area safe; compensate victims; provide long-term mental health and other services to victims and the public; and restore a sense of well-being in the community
if you are looking for a silver lining to this doomsday scenario... consider the reaction by the people of America when 3,000 were killed by enemy action on 9-11.
if this were to happen, nothing short of a miracle would stop the US from conquering the middle east, after killing all in the area.
after that... there would be little terrorism tolerated in the world. yes, we tolerate it now. if we didn’t, we would be constantly sending 2-5 man teams to take out all leaders of potentially threatening UA groups... like iran, cuba, venezuela, etc.
they don’t know how bad we can get. it’s only because we realize this, that we hold ourselves back for their sakes. those kids gloves would be lost if a city were lit.
That’s what the globalist elite would want...
...a nuked NYC.
Response from Obama after the Attack: We have to ask ourselves what provoked an attack from a religion of peace? Let me be perfectly clear, we have to learn to listen to others. This was America’s fault just as much as the alleged attackers. I have directed Attorney General Eric Holder to find, arrest, indict and prosecute the alleged attackers to the fullest extent of the law.
I don’t buy that. I think a lot of the displaced would be looking for welfare, and the entire area would be irradiated for a decade or more. If the target was D.C., government would collapse. You would find that the current administration is wholly incapable of handling the situation at home nor the situation overseas. These UA groups would likely setup multiple incidents to “overwhelm the system.”
Obama would stand up there (if he survives) saying that we need to be “calm.” He would demand answers from foreign countries, but we all know that Obama is incapable of following through on demands.
I’m sorry, if this scenario happens under the current administration, this country would crumble. Individual pockets of armed resistance would be prevalent, but an organized army from a country like Russia would decimate our national infrastructure.
That miracle is President Obama...
This in the context of terrorists being unable to handle any weapon more sophisticated than a boxcutter.
I think the elitists snobs in this administration are wholly incapable of buttering their own toast. Anybody expecting them to lead and rally a defense of our nation will be terribly disappointed.
And anyone not directly affected, but living in interstate evacuation corridors should prepare themselves for a “post katrina” situation x 100.
on 9-12, i was worried about the next attack from a UA group (AQ). they had been escalating and improving their attacks since the early 90s... and it was only the offense of the Bush administration that kept them from hitting the next level. now that the pressure is off... the next level is inevitable.
multiple, simultaneous, coordinated attacks ... that was 9-11. the next level would be something like what was stated above
on a side note, i have been hearing about retired war generals stockpiling/burying food, guns, ammo, general supplies... which always makes my ears pick up.
of course, that is assuming ‘the miracle’ survives the attack.
if not, we might end up with a random roll for leader. if i were really conspiracy minded, i’d track where the first 4 in succession are... and if they suddenly left town, just before the event, that’d be mighty suspicious
I don't think the Russians would be in any hurry to fight armed Americans on our soil. it was the greatest fear the Soviets had of an all out struggle with the U.S.
The Chinese, under the guise of protecting their investment, might intervene.
The greatest fear of this administration is what happens if OBAMA Declares Martial Law and suspends Civil Liberties, Habeas Corpus, Elections, etc?
Their greatest fear is an uprising against the tyrannical government with the real warriors(the ones who enlisted to defend this country, not get handouts) from the Military on the side of the armed struggle. This leaves OBAMA as Commander in Chief with no Professional Military. Then he will have to open the prisons in this country and arm them to the teeth to keep his hold on the urban centers of the Country.
He probably has spent a couple of billion TARP$ building teleprompter-equipped bunker-mosques all around the country
I S L A M Eternal Suffering Lasts Forever!
If you are not - you should be.
It doesn't have to be perfect, it just needs to be adequate.
Start small and add a little more (food, water, ammo) each week or month.
Don't need to bury it, just don't keep it on your front porch.
later
The fed/guv wants this to happen. They’ll hep em trigger it, if necessary.
Given the severity of the attack,martial law would be in place.
It would be interesting to see what changes would take place in California.
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