Skip to comments.GOP Projected to Pick Up Five Senate Seats in November
Posted on 03/24/2010 11:48:18 AM PDT by OldDeckHand
According to models by statistician Nate Silver, Republicans will pick up five Senate seats in the midterm elections under the most likely scenario, for a total of 46 seats. That is a net gain of one seat from the last time Silver ran the model two weeks ago. Silver's projections also show a ten percent chance that the GOP will takeover the majority in the upper body.
The "10% chance" of retaking the majority in the House seems low. Michael Barrone had a more optimistic outlook just a week ago.
I think a Dem blood bath is coming, from the local level all the way to DC.
I think he is saying there is a 10% chance that GOP takes control of Senate...instead of just a 5 seat pickuo. they upper chamber is the “Sinate”, not the house of horrors
Isn’t the Senate the upper body? I think he means there is a 10% chance they win enough seats to be the majority in the senate.
The last time I looked, and not too long ago, it was 7 low hanging fruit Dem Senators that were toast.
Yes, you are right. I stand corrected. He's not commenting on the House chances, at all.
I think most pundits and analysts are going to be conservative in their analysis of Dem losses. If the current political climate continues on its current course the Rat losses will be historic for any party in US history.
We’ve got the Socialists taking over our country and these people can say that the GOP will ONLY get five seats??? Give me a break! I think we’ll get waaaaaaaay more than that.
This would be a disaster and the death care bill will live forever. We need to and should pick up a lot more that this.
The Republicans are in as good of a position as they can possibly be, very little of it was their own doing. It’s as if they woke up, and someone had given them a winning lottery ticket.
If anyone can screw it up, Republicans are up to that challenge.
I think its more like 6 or 7 personally. I’m looking at about 47 or 48 pubbie Senators in the next Congress. One of them being Dingy Harry. It will be interesting to see if the Dingy one is defeated who will become the Dem leader of the Senate. Could it be Dick Durbin?
The baseline is about a 45 seat loss for the Dims in the House, and I suspect their losses will be much higher than that in November.
Class I, 2012 election, 21 D - 10 R - 2 I (but vote with the Dems)
Class II, 2014 election, 20 D - 13 R
Class III, 2010 election, 16 D - 18 R
Five is actually doing pretty well. And, he's not saying this is the best case scenario, just the likely scenario at this point in time.
It's just not a great year for GOP opportunity in the Senate this cycle because - as luck would have it - there are more Republicans (or vacated GOP seats) up for reelection than there are Democrats.
Remember, only 1/3 of the Senate is up for reelection in any one election year and not the entire body, like is in the House.
eh, no worries.
been a long few months for all of us
The upper body is Senate, lower body House.
Nate Silver is not a bad statistician, but neither is he particularly good. He does try, however, and many other estimates are driveling nonsense.
California is in play this year. Anything is possible.
“This would be a disaster and the death care bill will live forever. We need to and should pick up a lot more that this.”
I think it’s a done deal. It’s not in Washington’s interest to get rid of this. There will be jobs, and money and power flowing from this legislation, and those spoils are available to all politicians.
The only chance we have is to try to get the right people in office so the damage is limited.
Seven or eight is more likely at this point.
Ping to this post - karlinohio explains it more effectively than I did.
2010 cycle favors the dem’s because they do not have many seats to defend But the 2012 cycle they will be defending 24 seats and will be very very tough for the rats.
if that Obama worshipping little f*g&ot Nate Silver predicts five, then ten is within reach....
They probably will by sending out a bunch of Dim-lite candidates. I have hope they will correct long-standing errors, but serious doubts.
Oh man, both houses possible?
Bummer will get NOTHING done, and Bummercare will be strangled for lack of funding.
When Duh Dems lose a Ted Kennedy held Senate seat, just about all Dims should be in trouble.
Larry Sabato is currently predicting pickups for the GOP:
If JD beats McCain, you can all it six.
Depends on the state, how many large cities influence their elections, amount of voter fraud and intimidation, percentage of voters on the public dole etc.
In the House, one must factor in gerrymandering.
Well, this year is going to be unusual because there will be intense public heat on them over Bummercare. They will, if not totally tone deaf, promise to beat Bummercare till it’s dead or at least permanently unconscious.
Five would be a very conservative estimate. I’d say at least 5 are practically guaranteed. I’d put the over/under at about 7 1/2 or 8 and bet the over. If we get a real wave of voter rebellion, and some strong GOP candidates (though not necessarily strong Senators) like Tommy Thompson and George Pataki stepping up, I could see 11 or 12.
“But the 2012 cycle they will be defending 24 seats and will be very very tough for the rats.”
Predicting the 2012 cycle is like trying to predict northeast Ohio weather 3 weeks in advance.
Some are already pulling back and saying they don’t want the whole thing repealed as there are “good parts in it.” That won’t win. I hope I am pleasantly surprised in all this, but I will not pin my happiness on those hopes.
5 new seats vs. McCain, Graham, Snowe, Collins, and a few others
Might not be much of a gain.
And, people are not going to be happy with half measures that leave the odious core, the mandate part, standing. They will insist that this vampire gets the silver bullet.
Exactly my first reaction. 5? WTF? 15 or 20 is waht I want.
nov??????????? we won’t have a country by then if they continue with this socialist/communist agenda. slowly our liberties are being taken away
Real Clear Politics has GOP net gain of 7
It may be a technical issue. Full repeal won’t be possible till 2012. In the meantime compromises with handfuls of Dems could result in veto-proof revisions to whatever the GOP doesn’t utterly deny funding to.
How many do we need to get in the House? Let’s see. There were 34 Dems who voted against HC. It lost by 4. That totals 38. So we need 20 to take over? Is that right?
We have a stopper in the Senate as long as there are 41 there.
Five? What will that do? Did it matter who was a Senator once Caesar became EMPEROR? We are past talking and voting.
I think it’s going to be more than five seats. I think seven to ten is more likely.
My prediction for R/D split after this fall:
House: GOP 221 DEM 214
Senate: GOP 49 DEM/I 51
That’s a low ball prediction for the House Republican pickup.
He’s only been in office 14 months and already over half of the US economy is controlled by the feds. That ain’t slow, my friend.
I’m with ya!
That’s a good moderate guess which should be the midpoint. It maybe much worse for Dems especially in the House as the get back at Pelosi/Reid/Obama sentiment is getting more explosive by the day.