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GOP Projected to Pick Up Five Senate Seats in November
National Review Online ^ | 03/24/10 | Daniel Foster

Posted on 03/24/2010 11:48:18 AM PDT by OldDeckHand

According to models by statistician Nate Silver, Republicans will pick up five Senate seats in the midterm elections under the most likely scenario, for a total of 46 seats. That is a net gain of one seat from the last time Silver ran the model two weeks ago. Silver's projections also show a ten percent chance that the GOP will takeover the majority in the upper body.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; Miscellaneous; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 111th; 2010; 2010midterms; elections; gopcomeback; goppickups; house; senate
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Five pick-ups is pretty good, especially consdidering that the GOP has to defend five or six seats being vacated by retiring Senators in states that went for Obama in the last election.

The "10% chance" of retaking the majority in the House seems low. Michael Barrone had a more optimistic outlook just a week ago.

1 posted on 03/24/2010 11:48:18 AM PDT by OldDeckHand
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To: OldDeckHand

I think a Dem blood bath is coming, from the local level all the way to DC.


2 posted on 03/24/2010 11:50:28 AM PDT by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
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To: OldDeckHand

I think he is saying there is a 10% chance that GOP takes control of Senate...instead of just a 5 seat pickuo. they upper chamber is the “Sinate”, not the house of horrors


3 posted on 03/24/2010 11:50:46 AM PDT by QualityMan (1994 is right around the corner........)
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To: OldDeckHand

Isn’t the Senate the upper body? I think he means there is a 10% chance they win enough seats to be the majority in the senate.


4 posted on 03/24/2010 11:51:32 AM PDT by IL Republican
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To: OldDeckHand

The last time I looked, and not too long ago, it was 7 low hanging fruit Dem Senators that were toast.


5 posted on 03/24/2010 11:52:13 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: QualityMan
"I think he is saying there is a 10% chance that GOP takes control of Senate..."

Yes, you are right. I stand corrected. He's not commenting on the House chances, at all.

6 posted on 03/24/2010 11:53:01 AM PDT by OldDeckHand (USA - b. July 4, 1776 / d. March 21, 2010)
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To: OldDeckHand

I think most pundits and analysts are going to be conservative in their analysis of Dem losses. If the current political climate continues on its current course the Rat losses will be historic for any party in US history.


7 posted on 03/24/2010 11:53:55 AM PDT by DarthVader (Liberalism is the politics of EVIL whose time of judgment has come. Judgment Day: Nov 2, 2010)
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To: OldDeckHand

ONLY FIVE?????

We’ve got the Socialists taking over our country and these people can say that the GOP will ONLY get five seats??? Give me a break! I think we’ll get waaaaaaaay more than that.


8 posted on 03/24/2010 11:53:56 AM PDT by wk4bush2004 (PALIN-BACHMANN, 2012!)
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To: OldDeckHand

This would be a disaster and the death care bill will live forever. We need to and should pick up a lot more that this.


9 posted on 03/24/2010 11:54:54 AM PDT by TJC
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To: OldDeckHand

The Republicans are in as good of a position as they can possibly be, very little of it was their own doing. It’s as if they woke up, and someone had given them a winning lottery ticket.

If anyone can screw it up, Republicans are up to that challenge.


10 posted on 03/24/2010 11:56:35 AM PDT by brownsfan (The average American: Uninformed, and unconcerned.)
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To: OldDeckHand

I think its more like 6 or 7 personally. I’m looking at about 47 or 48 pubbie Senators in the next Congress. One of them being Dingy Harry. It will be interesting to see if the Dingy one is defeated who will become the Dem leader of the Senate. Could it be Dick Durbin?


11 posted on 03/24/2010 11:57:22 AM PDT by Old Teufel Hunden
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To: oh8eleven

The baseline is about a 45 seat loss for the Dims in the House, and I suspect their losses will be much higher than that in November.


12 posted on 03/24/2010 11:57:41 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: OldDeckHand
This is the toughest Senate class to pick up ten seats in because the Republicans already hold the majority.

Class I, 2012 election, 21 D - 10 R - 2 I (but vote with the Dems)

Class II, 2014 election, 20 D - 13 R

Class III, 2010 election, 16 D - 18 R

13 posted on 03/24/2010 11:58:00 AM PDT by KarlInOhio (Obamacare: The 2010 version of the Intolerable Acts.)
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To: wk4bush2004
"ONLY FIVE?????"

Five is actually doing pretty well. And, he's not saying this is the best case scenario, just the likely scenario at this point in time.

It's just not a great year for GOP opportunity in the Senate this cycle because - as luck would have it - there are more Republicans (or vacated GOP seats) up for reelection than there are Democrats.

Remember, only 1/3 of the Senate is up for reelection in any one election year and not the entire body, like is in the House.

14 posted on 03/24/2010 11:58:06 AM PDT by OldDeckHand (USA - b. July 4, 1776 / d. March 21, 2010)
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To: OldDeckHand

eh, no worries.

been a long few months for all of us


15 posted on 03/24/2010 11:58:07 AM PDT by QualityMan (1994 is right around the corner........)
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To: OldDeckHand

The upper body is Senate, lower body House.


16 posted on 03/24/2010 11:58:10 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: OldDeckHand

Nate Silver is not a bad statistician, but neither is he particularly good. He does try, however, and many other estimates are driveling nonsense.


17 posted on 03/24/2010 11:58:25 AM PDT by Crichton
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To: TJC
"We need to and should pick up a lot more that this."

If we get to 47 or 48 and take over the house, we'll be in good position for 2012. The Dems have 23 seats to defend in 2012 and the pubbies have only 9. We'll take control in 2012 for sure.
18 posted on 03/24/2010 11:58:51 AM PDT by Old Teufel Hunden
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To: OldDeckHand

California is in play this year. Anything is possible.


19 posted on 03/24/2010 11:59:02 AM PDT by ksm1
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To: TJC

“This would be a disaster and the death care bill will live forever. We need to and should pick up a lot more that this.”

I think it’s a done deal. It’s not in Washington’s interest to get rid of this. There will be jobs, and money and power flowing from this legislation, and those spoils are available to all politicians.

The only chance we have is to try to get the right people in office so the damage is limited.


20 posted on 03/24/2010 11:59:08 AM PDT by brownsfan (The average American: Uninformed, and unconcerned.)
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To: OldDeckHand

Seven or eight is more likely at this point.


21 posted on 03/24/2010 11:59:47 AM PDT by Ol' Sparky (Liberal Republicans are the greater of two evils)
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To: wk4bush2004; KarlInOhio

Ping to this post - karlinohio explains it more effectively than I did.


22 posted on 03/24/2010 11:59:51 AM PDT by OldDeckHand (USA - b. July 4, 1776 / d. March 21, 2010)
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To: brownsfan

2010 cycle favors the dem’s because they do not have many seats to defend But the 2012 cycle they will be defending 24 seats and will be very very tough for the rats.


23 posted on 03/24/2010 12:00:02 PM PDT by RED SOUTH
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To: OldDeckHand

if that Obama worshipping little f*g&ot Nate Silver predicts five, then ten is within reach....


24 posted on 03/24/2010 12:00:09 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: brownsfan
If anyone can screw it up, Republicans are up to that challenge.

They probably will by sending out a bunch of Dim-lite candidates. I have hope they will correct long-standing errors, but serious doubts.

25 posted on 03/24/2010 12:00:43 PM PDT by Ingtar (Congress: proof that Entropy trumps Evolution)
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To: OldDeckHand

Oh man, both houses possible?

Bummer will get NOTHING done, and Bummercare will be strangled for lack of funding.


26 posted on 03/24/2010 12:00:51 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: ksm1

When Duh Dems lose a Ted Kennedy held Senate seat, just about all Dims should be in trouble.


27 posted on 03/24/2010 12:01:04 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: OldDeckHand

Larry Sabato is currently predicting pickups for the GOP:

Senate +7
House +27
Governors +7

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/


28 posted on 03/24/2010 12:01:08 PM PDT by ConjunctionJunction (LOLcat sez: "ObamaCare: Do Not Want!")
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To: OldDeckHand

If JD beats McCain, you can all it six.


29 posted on 03/24/2010 12:02:13 PM PDT by shibumi ("..... then we will fight in the shade." (Cool Star - *))
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To: wk4bush2004

Depends on the state, how many large cities influence their elections, amount of voter fraud and intimidation, percentage of voters on the public dole etc.

In the House, one must factor in gerrymandering.


30 posted on 03/24/2010 12:02:18 PM PDT by prairiebreeze (Prayers for the Ft. Hood families, victims and soldiers.)
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To: Ingtar

Well, this year is going to be unusual because there will be intense public heat on them over Bummercare. They will, if not totally tone deaf, promise to beat Bummercare till it’s dead or at least permanently unconscious.


31 posted on 03/24/2010 12:02:27 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: OldDeckHand

Five would be a very conservative estimate. I’d say at least 5 are practically guaranteed. I’d put the over/under at about 7 1/2 or 8 and bet the over. If we get a real wave of voter rebellion, and some strong GOP candidates (though not necessarily strong Senators) like Tommy Thompson and George Pataki stepping up, I could see 11 or 12.


32 posted on 03/24/2010 12:03:59 PM PDT by Above My Pay Grade
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Comment #33 Removed by Moderator

To: RED SOUTH

“But the 2012 cycle they will be defending 24 seats and will be very very tough for the rats.”

Predicting the 2012 cycle is like trying to predict northeast Ohio weather 3 weeks in advance.

Not likely.


34 posted on 03/24/2010 12:05:24 PM PDT by brownsfan (The average American: Uninformed, and unconcerned.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Some are already pulling back and saying they don’t want the whole thing repealed as there are “good parts in it.” That won’t win. I hope I am pleasantly surprised in all this, but I will not pin my happiness on those hopes.


35 posted on 03/24/2010 12:08:15 PM PDT by Ingtar (Congress: proof that Entropy trumps Evolution)
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To: OldDeckHand

5 new seats vs. McCain, Graham, Snowe, Collins, and a few others

Might not be much of a gain.


36 posted on 03/24/2010 12:09:40 PM PDT by TomGuy
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To: Ingtar

And, people are not going to be happy with half measures that leave the odious core, the mandate part, standing. They will insist that this vampire gets the silver bullet.


37 posted on 03/24/2010 12:10:24 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: wk4bush2004

Exactly my first reaction. 5? WTF? 15 or 20 is waht I want.


38 posted on 03/24/2010 12:11:40 PM PDT by ryan71 (Let's Roll!)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

nov??????????? we won’t have a country by then if they continue with this socialist/communist agenda. slowly our liberties are being taken away


39 posted on 03/24/2010 12:12:10 PM PDT by truthbetold11 (truthbetold11)
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To: OldDeckHand

Real Clear Politics has GOP net gain of 7


40 posted on 03/24/2010 12:12:16 PM PDT by DM1
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To: Ingtar

It may be a technical issue. Full repeal won’t be possible till 2012. In the meantime compromises with handfuls of Dems could result in veto-proof revisions to whatever the GOP doesn’t utterly deny funding to.


41 posted on 03/24/2010 12:13:15 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: Above My Pay Grade

How many do we need to get in the House? Let’s see. There were 34 Dems who voted against HC. It lost by 4. That totals 38. So we need 20 to take over? Is that right?


42 posted on 03/24/2010 12:13:32 PM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: truthbetold11

We have a stopper in the Senate as long as there are 41 there.


43 posted on 03/24/2010 12:13:58 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: OldDeckHand

Five? What will that do? Did it matter who was a Senator once Caesar became EMPEROR? We are past talking and voting.


44 posted on 03/24/2010 12:14:05 PM PDT by Republic of Texas (Socialism Always Fails)
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To: OldDeckHand

I think it’s going to be more than five seats. I think seven to ten is more likely.


45 posted on 03/24/2010 12:14:42 PM PDT by Non-Sequitur
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To: DarthVader

My prediction for R/D split after this fall:

House: GOP 221 DEM 214
Senate: GOP 49 DEM/I 51


46 posted on 03/24/2010 12:15:20 PM PDT by RockinRight (Obama Logic: Global Warming causes blizzards, and deficit spending balances budgets.)
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To: ConjunctionJunction

That’s a low ball prediction for the House Republican pickup.


47 posted on 03/24/2010 12:17:09 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: truthbetold11

SLOWLY??

He’s only been in office 14 months and already over half of the US economy is controlled by the feds. That ain’t slow, my friend.


48 posted on 03/24/2010 12:17:41 PM PDT by Bob Buchholz
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To: Red Steel

I’m with ya!


49 posted on 03/24/2010 12:22:30 PM PDT by ConjunctionJunction (LOLcat sez: "ObamaCare: Do Not Want!")
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To: RockinRight

That’s a good moderate guess which should be the midpoint. It maybe much worse for Dems especially in the House as the get back at Pelosi/Reid/Obama sentiment is getting more explosive by the day.


50 posted on 03/24/2010 12:22:52 PM PDT by DarthVader (Liberalism is the politics of EVIL whose time of judgment has come. Judgment Day: Nov 2, 2010)
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