Skip to comments.GOP Projected to Pick Up Five Senate Seats in November
Posted on 03/24/2010 11:48:18 AM PDT by OldDeckHand
According to models by statistician Nate Silver, Republicans will pick up five Senate seats in the midterm elections under the most likely scenario, for a total of 46 seats. That is a net gain of one seat from the last time Silver ran the model two weeks ago. Silver's projections also show a ten percent chance that the GOP will takeover the majority in the upper body.
The "10% chance" of retaking the majority in the House seems low. Michael Barrone had a more optimistic outlook just a week ago.
I think a Dem blood bath is coming, from the local level all the way to DC.
I think he is saying there is a 10% chance that GOP takes control of Senate...instead of just a 5 seat pickuo. they upper chamber is the “Sinate”, not the house of horrors
Isn’t the Senate the upper body? I think he means there is a 10% chance they win enough seats to be the majority in the senate.
The last time I looked, and not too long ago, it was 7 low hanging fruit Dem Senators that were toast.
Yes, you are right. I stand corrected. He's not commenting on the House chances, at all.
I think most pundits and analysts are going to be conservative in their analysis of Dem losses. If the current political climate continues on its current course the Rat losses will be historic for any party in US history.
We’ve got the Socialists taking over our country and these people can say that the GOP will ONLY get five seats??? Give me a break! I think we’ll get waaaaaaaay more than that.
This would be a disaster and the death care bill will live forever. We need to and should pick up a lot more that this.
The Republicans are in as good of a position as they can possibly be, very little of it was their own doing. It’s as if they woke up, and someone had given them a winning lottery ticket.
If anyone can screw it up, Republicans are up to that challenge.
I think its more like 6 or 7 personally. I’m looking at about 47 or 48 pubbie Senators in the next Congress. One of them being Dingy Harry. It will be interesting to see if the Dingy one is defeated who will become the Dem leader of the Senate. Could it be Dick Durbin?
The baseline is about a 45 seat loss for the Dims in the House, and I suspect their losses will be much higher than that in November.
Class I, 2012 election, 21 D - 10 R - 2 I (but vote with the Dems)
Class II, 2014 election, 20 D - 13 R
Class III, 2010 election, 16 D - 18 R
Five is actually doing pretty well. And, he's not saying this is the best case scenario, just the likely scenario at this point in time.
It's just not a great year for GOP opportunity in the Senate this cycle because - as luck would have it - there are more Republicans (or vacated GOP seats) up for reelection than there are Democrats.
Remember, only 1/3 of the Senate is up for reelection in any one election year and not the entire body, like is in the House.
eh, no worries.
been a long few months for all of us
The upper body is Senate, lower body House.
Nate Silver is not a bad statistician, but neither is he particularly good. He does try, however, and many other estimates are driveling nonsense.
California is in play this year. Anything is possible.
“This would be a disaster and the death care bill will live forever. We need to and should pick up a lot more that this.”
I think it’s a done deal. It’s not in Washington’s interest to get rid of this. There will be jobs, and money and power flowing from this legislation, and those spoils are available to all politicians.
The only chance we have is to try to get the right people in office so the damage is limited.