Vulnerable House Democrats - A Master List - 3-31 UPDATE

Interceptpoint | 31 March 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

I have updated our Master List of Vulnerable House Democrats. I've posted the normal .png versions of the Excel file below and have uploaded pdf versions in two files that can be downloaded from these links:

Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 1

Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 2

These pdf files have clickable links that will bring up the web pages for each of the Republican candidates on the list. There are a few exceptions but very few.

We now have a total of 78 entries although a few of them are tenuous and will probably be deleted from the list unless there is some very strong reason for keeping them on. These vulnerable districts are those where the name of the incumbent Democrat is highlighted in blue. Typically if 3 or 4 of our selected election experts weigh in with a SAFE DEM rating for the race then it does not serve our purpose to keep that district on our list. It should be clear from the chart which races I'm referring to.

The election experts mentioned above are: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, ElectionProjection.com, CQPolitics.com and just added yesterday, The Cook Political Report. The corresponding headings on the pdf versions of the file are linked to each of these websites so you can check them out yourself. I'm assuming that the ratings for each of these sites will change as the election cycle progresses and it is our plan to keep up to date with the latest view of of each of them. I'm hoping that we can get some help in this area. Watch for changes to any of the races and post your recommended updates. Note that these ratings have been used to select the races that we are covering. We're not interested in sure Dem wins or sure Republican wins. We are less interested in Likely Republican wins. We are focused on those districts that are Leaning Democrat, Toss-Up and Leaning Republican. But a few Likely Republican and several Likely Democrat races are on our list. Also a few Vacant Republican districts are on the list. IL-10 and FL-12 are good examples of this. I will update the chart to highlight all of the Open R seats at some point.

We have managed to get a "Freeper Endorsement" for a total of 38 of the 78 districts on our list, just short of 50%. What that means is that we have received information via Freeper posts and Freeper mail that indicates the "endorsed" candidate is the right choice, should or could win the Primary and has what it takes to win in November. And the candidate has the right qualifications - no RINOs please. All "Freeper Endorsed" candidates are highlighted in blue with a * in front of their name in the "Main Challenger" column of the chart.

As I stated in yesterday's post, our biggest problem is getting "Freeper Endorsements" for the rest of the list. That's what I'm going to be working on. That's what randita's going to be working on and we are looking for all the help we can get. If this turns out to be a really good and accurate list it will get widely distributed and it will be used to help our favored candidates. That's the whole idea here. And ideas for getting that wide distribution are welcomed.

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[campaignPete R-CT]

i guess my reasoning is that I am reluctant to write long comments about something in the northeast if the readers are from all over .... the chart isn’t what I was commenting on... just throwing comments on 100+ seats all into one thread. just an different opinion, don’t mean to criticize.

[campaignPete R-CT]

I would just like to know what the recommendation for Herrmann was based on. it is useless without background info ... personal preference? very little is know about Herrmann outside of his website and it is late in the day. We cannot make decision based on very little info.

[JenSWVA]

Adam Light does have a web site: http://www.lightforcongress.com/

he’s pro-life, pro-constitution, pro-SWVA.. something we’re severely lacking in our current “Representative” in Congress (Boucher). Adam Light has great promise & I’d be delighted to have him represent us in Congress.

[BerniesFriend]

I hope we can add Mary Landrieu to the list for 2012.

actually.."For Sale Mary" is not up for re-election until 2014..and sadly..in my state..incumbency is solid..you can count on one hand how many state wide and congressional office holders have been voted out in the past four decades..really pi$$e$ me off..

[randita]

Here is your reply from the 3/30 Master List thread, in which you mention Herrmann as a top challenger. On what did you base that opinion?

---

In CT-4, top challenger is now Tom Herrmann.
In CT-5, drop Carter who is minor, add Mark Greenberg (well financed)
RI, you are missing the Patrick Kennedy open seat.
MA-2 (Neal), top challenger is Jay Fleitman.
MA-6 (Tierney), top challenger is Bill Hudak.
NH-1, top challenger is Frank Guinta.
NH-2, top conservative challenger is Jennifer Horn (drop Clegg or Guida)
ME-2, challenger is Jason Levesque
NY-20, Tedisco is out.
NY-19, it is spelled DiCarlo. Drop McEnroe, add Thomas DeChiaro, well-financed conservative.

126 posted on March 31, 2010 7:14:52 AM EDT by campaignPete R-CT (”pray without ceasing” - Paul of Tarsus)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies | Report Abuse]

[La Enchiladita]

Bumping a worthy project.

[randita]

I’m thinking that trolls from our favorite liberal websites may choose the Master List project as a playground where they can cause mischief?

With this in mind, recommendations do need to be taken with a grain of salt (as I believe we’re taking them now) because trolls would like nothing more than for us conservatives to support the RINO candidate or the candidate least likely to win.

I’m stating publicly that trolls are put on notice that they will not be tolerated. We have ways of knowing who they are.

[campaignPete R-CT]

“With $300,000 already in his war chest ...”
http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Easton-first-selectman-in-4th-District-race-399992.php

Site by The Prosper Group
“The Prosper Group is proud to count the campaign of Senator Scott Brown among its list of successful clients. We were hired in September”

http://www.prospergroupcorp.com/

doesn’t mean Freepers should support him, but it’s turning into a Herrmann vs. Debicella race. That could change.

[randita]

What do you know about Debicella? Does he have a shot?

[campaignPete R-CT]

Debicella was the presumed nominee, coasting to an easy primary win ... his fundraising and grassroots momentum stalled due to lack of support from pro-family and teaparty, etc. and perhaps his inability to rally the party. Thus, when Herrmann jumped in 2 weeks ago with a 300,000$ splash, suddenly Debicella is floundering.

“He holds moderate positions on social issues, supporting a woman’s right to choose and state funding of stem cell research.” This is new on his website.
http://debicella.com/2-about.html

[brityank]

Per your note on my Rooney thread, here's my list:

Allen West - Florida 22
Bill Russell - Pennsylvania 12
Brian Rooney - Michigan 7

I am in Sestak's PA District 7; here's the Wiki info:

"In 2009, incumbent Representative Joe Sestak decided to retire from the seat to challenge Sen. Arlen Specter (D) in a primary election. State Representative Bryan Lentz of the 161st State Legislative District has since decided to run for the open seat, and was recently endorsed by the Delaware County Democratic Committee. Pat Meehan, the former United States Attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania and former Delaware County, Pennsylvania District Attorney, D.A. is the Republican running for the seat."

Wish we had someone else to challenge Meehan.

[randita]

I looked at both Herrmann’s and Debicella’s website. They seem to have pretty similar views on fiscal issues and sound conservative enough. I don’t see anything on either website about abortion or stem cell, so they may be of similar mind on those issues, but just don’t want anyone to advertise that they are socially liberal.

Both opposed porkulus and Obama care and can hit Himes over the head with those issues.

[DLfromthedesert]

Smith is the McCain endorsed candidate; definitely a liberal

[TsonicTsunami08]

Thank you for adding Allen West. I don’t think the anger and betrayal the Elderly are feeling at the passage of the healthcare bill should be underestimated at this point. I’m a healthcare worker in District 22 and the folks there see that they are going to be the one’s petitioning these bureaucratic panels ( and yes, they do see them as death panels) for life sustaining treatment that may be deemed to expensive. They are in two words “ PISSED OFF “ and more they are frightened.

Allen West will win the seat but we must send him money.

PLEASE DONATE !!!!

[campaignPete R-CT]

women’s right to choose ....
http://debicella.com/2-about.html

Herrmann is an unknown quantity. Not good for him at this
late hour to have so many questions to answer.

[campaignPete R-CT]

dj,
you’re the expert on all this ... what’s it all mean?

[no dems]

WHAT THE HELL? According to Sabato, CQP, EP.com and Cook, the overwhelming majority are rated either "Safe D" or "Leans D" or Toss-up. And what's this sh** about Mark (The Weasel) Stupak being a "Safe D"?

What happened to all that talk about the GOP taking over Congress in November. Either somebody is full of CRAP or you, InterceptPoint, are printing this stuff to try and lower our morale.

Now, somebody tell me what the hell is going on here; PLEASE!!!

[fieldmarshaldj]

Did you want me to analyze something specifically ?

[InterceptPoint]

What happened to all that talk about the GOP taking over Congress in November. Either somebody is full of CRAP or you, InterceptPoint, are printing this stuff to try and lower our morale.

Now, somebody tell me what the hell is going on here; PLEASE!!!

You should take a look at the Wikipedia entry for Michigan's 1st Congressional District currently held by Bart Stupak. It shows that the last Republican to win that seat was Robert H. Clancy who served in Congress from 1927 to 1933. Now that makes MI-1 a pretty darn solid Democrat seat. And that is why Sabato, CQP, EP.com and Cook rate this as Safe D.

Note also that most current projections are for the Republicans to take back something like 20 to 30 seats in the House - if the election were held today. But we need a minimum of +40 seats to take back control of the House and that is why we have a list of 78 races where there is at a least some chance that the Republican can unseat the Democrat. We will not win all of these races. But we could win 40 of them and the goal of the Master List Project is to carve the list of 78 possibilities down to the really potentially winnable seats and get people focused on winning the seats that we can win.

So should MI-1 (Stupak) be on this list? Probably not. MI-1 is still there because there is intense national interest in that race and we want to watch it so it will stay for awhile. FL-22 is a better example. There is huge support on Free Republic for Allen West. He has endorsements galore. Can he win? The experts don't think so. But a lot of people do. So he stays on our list for now.

And remember, we are just getting to the election season. Things change and the "experts" that we are relying on here to pick the Weak Dems will also change there positions as they see the polling data flowing in. We will do the same. We will watch for trends in the assessments of Sabato and the rest. We will read what Michael Barone (a real expert) and others think about these races and we will adjust our view as well. But the end goal is clear:

WE WANT TO WIN BACK THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

[InterceptPoint]

Per your note on my Rooney thread, here's my list:

Allen West - Florida 22, Bill Russell - Pennsylvania 12 and Brian Rooney - Michigan 7

Thanks for your input. I hope you stick around. We need all the help we can get putting our Master List together.

West and Russell are already at the top of our list as "Freeper Endorsed" candidates. But for MI-7 our Freeper Endorsed candidate is Tim Walberg. Can you make a case for Rooney over Walberg? What do you know about Rooney that you think makes him the better candidate? Get back to us on that. We are constantly re-evaluating our choices and the rankings for each district and we will make changes where there is justification.