Posted on 04/12/2010 5:59:17 AM PDT by DM1
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has been hammered for months from the left and right, with prognosticators in both parties predicting that Nevada voters will send him packing come November.
But Reid, his reelection team and some Senate Democratic insiders are eyeing a bank shot to victory — one that involves enough voters picking third-party candidates or even “none of the above” to let Reid win reelection with less than 50 percent of the vote.
Reid trails former Nevada Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden by 8 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, according to a poll released Sunday by the Las Vegas Review-Journal. That poll shows Reid tied with businessman Danny Tarkanian. The newspaper didn’t test Reid against former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, but she was beating him by 11 percentage points in the most recent Rasmussen Reports survey.
Yet the Review-Journal poll — like others in this race — fails to factor in the full multicandidate field. It also does not account for Nevadans’ ability to cast their vote for “none of these candidates.” According to Reid and his aides, the Nevada Democrat’s own internal polls show him winning that more complicated race.
“If the election were held today, I’d win,” Reid confidently told a Nevada newspaper last week as he formally launched his reelection campaign. “Do the math.”
In addition to Reid and the Republican nominee, this year’s Nevada Senate race will include a tea party candidate, four candidates with no party affiliation and a candidate from the Independent American Party, a right-wing party that has more than 57,000 registered voters in the Silver State.
Reid’s assessment of the race is also based on his own electoral history. In each of his four previous Senate races, third-party candidates and “none of these candidates” combined won at least 4 percent of the overall vote, with the total reaching nearly 8 percent in Reid’s 1992 race against Republican Demar Dahl.
With voters sour on both political parties, third-party candidates could be in a position to garner even more votes than usual this year. The “none of these candidates” option could pull in an unusual level of support as well.
“He’s confident he’s going to win because he is,” said Reid campaign manager Brandon Hall. “It will be a hard-fought campaign, but this race is, in fact, very different than what the public polls reflect and the pundits are spinning.”
Asked about the impact of third parties in Nevada, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn of Texastold POLITICO recently: “The problem with the third parties is that they tend to result in the most liberal candidate — namely, the Democrat — getting elected.”
“There’s a math problem that you can do that will show Reid winning,” said Jon Ralston, a top political journalist in Nevada. “Theoretically, that is a possibility.”
To do that, Ralston said, Reid “will have to run the most negative campaign in the history of Nevada” by dumping millions of dollars into attack ads hammering his GOP challenger. Reid’s strategy will be to “either convince people to stay home or [convince them] to vote for a third-party candidate” by driving up the negatives of Reid’s Republican opponent, he said.
Ralston also predicted that whoever comes out of the GOP primary in June “would be damaged” by intraparty attacks from the nomination battle, which Reid could further exploit.
Yet Ralston, while acknowledging that Reid has a potential path to reelection, said it’s still an uphill battle for the majority leader. “That’s the only hope he’s got,” Ralston said of Reid.
Reid’s advisers privately believe they can increase his positive ratings by 5 to 8 points by relying on his huge campaign fund to push Reid’s message — “Harry Reid ... Driving Nevada Forward.”
Reid raised nearly $1.5 million in the first quarter of 2010, and he has more than $10 million in cash in the bank. The majority leader, with help from the White House and his Senate Democratic colleagues, plans to raise $25 million or more for his race, shattering all previous Nevada records.
Lowden, a wealthy former casino owner, raised $1 million in the first three months of the year, although $500,000 came from her own checkbook. Neither Tarkanian nor Angle will have anywhere near Reid’s financial resources.
Angle, though, is considered by many to be the most conservative of the top-tier GOP candidates — and conservatives and analysts in the state say she would have the best chance of heading off a third-party rebellion.
Lowden — whom Reid’s team sees as its biggest threat at this point and who is already vigorously attacking — and Tarkanian each could have a tougher time persuading conservative voters to stay in the GOP column.
Crystal Feldman, a spokeswoman for Lowden, admitted that there is a “level of concern” about the impact third-party candidates will have on the outcome of the race, saying they could be “a huge factor” in November and could help “dictate who will emerge victorious.” But she said that Lowden is catering to voters of all parties.
“I don’t think party affiliation will be as big of a factor this time around,” Feldman said. “I think it’ll be who’ll best represent Nevada.”
Tarkanian’s campaign, for its part, is downplaying the impact of third-party candidates.
“Once voters have a choice between Danny and Sen. Reid, then the third-party candidates will not be much of a factor at the end of day,” said Tarkanian campaign manager Brian Seitchikn.
And there may be some validity to the Tarkanian campaign’s view of the race. Even though, on paper, the IAP is the third-largest party in the state, its voter-registration numbers may be inflated because voters sometimes accidentally register with that party, mistakenly believing they are registering as independent of any political party, according to Nevada insiders.
Tim Fasano, the IAP candidate, said he plans to spend up to $1.5 million on the race. Although that’s a fraction of what Reid and the Republican candidates will spend, it is potentially enough to pull a sizable number of voters into his camp. Fasano said that “without engagement,” he would be able to win from 18 to 22 percent of the vote, adding that he’s already asked former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for an endorsement.
Asked if he was concerned that his candidacy could help Reid, Fasano said: “Those votes don’t belong to the Republicans. Those votes belong to the individual. We can’t steal anybody’s votes.”
The tea party candidate, Scott Ashjian, has been ensnared in a messy check-bouncing controversy and has been accused by Republicans and conservatives of not being a “real” tea partier. Ashjian is also facing a lawsuit by the IAP to knock him off the ballot in November because he changed his party affiliation after filing for the race.
In an interview, Ashjian said Republicans are threatened by his candidacy, as evidenced by the “nonissue” lawsuit and the criticism he received during a tea party rally in Reid’s hometown of Searchlight.
“We’re a threat to them,” Ashjian said, predicting that right now, he would win 22 percent of GOP votes and that the number would rise after the June primary.
The new Review-Journal poll has Ashjian getting 5 percent of the vote if Lowden is the GOP nominee, but his support rises to 11 percent if Tarkanian is Reid’s opponent.
well, that would certainly be infuriating.
Politico has just started spinning the Harry Reid election. Creating something that is not there, is becoming part of every election. I am sure the 3 rd party candidate will slowly fizzle after the primaries. Harry Reid will loose.
vaudine
with third or more parties anything is possible
look at MA with Deval
he was supposed to be toast and with his 35% reelect poll you would think anyone can waltz in there
wrongo
the Third party and GOP split the anti- Deval vote
that guy could be Gov for another 4 years thanks to vote splitting
same thing could happen to Reid and anyone else
Single-handedly.
you are correct
No third parties folks its the only way to check the Dems
gotta test drive the Obama 2012 strategy, dontcha know...
Yea, like third party Joe Kennedy helped Martha Coakley win over Scott Brown in Mass. Oh, and like Chris Dagget helped Jon Corazine win over Chris Christie in New Jersey. Oh, wait, that didn’t happen.
I just don’t see him losing.
to paraphrase: it ain’t who votes that counts, what’s important is who counts the votes.
He’s a made man and the fix is in.
oh yes think of President Perot beting Clinton and Bush oh wait didnt happen wound up with Clinton.
How about President Nader? oh wait didnt happen probably helped Bush
When Teddy Roosevelt shook the establishment by running as a Progressive third party candidate to become President again - oh wait didnt happen wound up splitting the R vote and allowed Wilson (D) to win
oh yes i forgot about NY23 where third Party Hoffman won against Owens - wait didnt happen (though this is probably the one case i would have supported third party since Dede was a lib and the way she was chosen without a real primary)
Maybe we’re getting smarter?
I wonder how many R absentee voters want their vote back.
Reid is going to lose the election.
Leave it to a Democrat to aspire to denying representation to a majority of their constituents.
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