Republican House Pickup Estimates - 23 April 2010

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 24 April 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

Republican House Pickup Estimates - 23 April 2010

As you probably know, we are tracking the opinions of several "Expert Election Evaluators" and are always on the search for new ones. Some of these "experts" include in their projections an estimate of the net Republican or Democrat pickups in the 2010 Election for the House and Senate. Since we are tracking the key House Races we track the House Pickup estimates as well.

Remember: TO WIN A REPUBLICAN MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AND TAKE BACK CONTROL OF OUR COUNTRY WE NEED A NET GAIN OF 41 SEATS.

So where do we stand? How close are we to winning back the House?

Answer: We're gettting there but we are not at 41 yet. Here is what our "Experts" are telling us about the likely Republic gains in the House as of 23 April:

• Sabato is +27
• CQ Politcs is +25
• Rothenberg is 25-30 so we will score that as +27
• ElectionProjection is at +23.

For tracking purposes we will just average those four figures. This gives us:

The KeyHouseRaces.com Estimate of the Republican House Pickups in 2010: 25.5 Seats

 

Sabato

 

CQ Politics

Rothenberg

ElectionProjection

[InterceptPoint]

The KeyHouseRaces.com summary of the current view of the "experts" on how many seats the Republicans will pick up in the House in November's election.

[InterceptPoint]

Pinging our Key House Races list with an update on the current projections for Republican pickups in the House.

[ballplayer]

If this is true all this outrage is a waste of time because Pelosi will still be in Charge

[o2bfree]

Isn’t it interesting that many of the “experts” are conservative when estimating 2010 house races, but then they’re extremely liberal when supporting Obama’s socialism and wealth redistribution agenda.

[Kenny]

If this is true all this outrage is a waste of time because Pelosi will still be in Charge

It's hard to be everywhere at once. I think we need to take it a race at a time for now, Djou for one. If we can't win that then I'll think maybe these estimates are correct. Near term races should be critical to conservatives to keep our momentum and morale up.

[Sybeck1]

I think congress comes down to how many Blue Dogs districts Palin wants to work in the south and midwest.

[rogue yam]

If this is true all this outrage is a waste of time because Pelosi will still be in Charge

I think it is foolish to think of the Tea Party movement as being entirely about 2010, or even 2010 and 2012.

The Tea Party movement needs to be permanent.

There will always be leftists, welfare bums, people trying to sneak across the borders, thieves in elected office, university professors, public employees and their unions, rent-seeking corporate executives, do-gooders, government grant-funded NGOs, etc., etc.

There is a leftist, demonic cancer attached to and growing within America and the West in general and we have to oppose it and shrink it and guard against its recurrence forever.

[Dan in Wichita]

The way the conservative movement is gaining momentum, I'd day a pick up of 50 or more seats in the House is within reach, maybe more, perhaps much much more.

However, we on the conservative side would be foolish to expect the ACORN and SEIU bunch to disappear quietly in the night.

Also, I can say with absolute certainty, the MSM will manufacture another Mark Foley scandal at just the right moment, in an attempt to blunt the GOP pick ups. The only question, in my opinion, is how successful will their efforts be in influencing the vote.

[Luke21]

If this is true, very little will change.

[Gene Eric]

Good points.

[cripplecreek]

The site says my district is a toss up but other conservative publications are saying it leans GOP.

I prefer to look at the situation here on the ground in my own district. From my perspective it looks good but the SEIU and ACORN apparently want this district badly and will do anything they can to keep it.

[LibLieSlayer]

sabato is an expert in the male crotch. We will win way more than any of these pukes guess.

LLS

[101voodoo]

For what it is worth, In 1994 the polling showed people more satisfied with Dems then Rep in the Congress (53% for the Dems) and the whole Congressional Post office thing was seen as a non issue.

I clearly recall watching Peter Jennings the evening before the election and ABC was reporting the above numbers and Jennings opined it would be an election void of any major changes. he even went as far as to say SOME pollsters claimed there could even be a GAIN by the Dem (he was commenting about the Postal scandal)

We know what happened the next day.

There was not even close to the anger then as we see today and at the time th Left had full control over he entire media. There was no Internet to speak of and cable was in its infancy. Today news, good and not so goo flashes around the web with the speed of light and only the most hopeless (those who won’t be voting anyway) are not at least somewhat informed.

[AEMILIUS PAULUS]

Statement: "Republican House Pickup Estimates - 23 April 2010"

Response: I hope we do pick up seats. If elections were fair and legal one would not see a Democrat in the House of Representatives. However, elections are not fair; already one can see "The Divine One" with his arms outstretched over the graveyards and the tombs are opening with the rising dead clutching premarked ballots. Thousands of ballots are marked in advance ready to be stuffed in boxes. The population of voters in key precincts has trebeled. We had better face the issue of what will we do if democrats maintain their control?

[AU72]

15 to 20 pickups will at least stalemate Obama as the democrats who squeaked in will not toe the line.

[kara2008]

bookmark

[God luvs America]

in the end these “predictions” are good....it’s April and we need to work harder and harder and harder to get our people in office....we CANNOT get complacent reading all these articles stating there will be a bloodbath in six months...

[almcbean]

I agree. Focusing on the short term (2010) and then getting discouraged if we don’t gain an immediate majority would be foolish.

Remember, Dems picked up a lot of Senate seats in 2006 and 2008, which they will have to defend in 2012 and 2014. For those years Dems have to defend 44 seats versus only 22 for the GOP.

There is a real opportunity to have a filibuster proof majority in the Senate in 4 years if patience and persistence are exhibited.

[ducttape45]

This vote count won’t cut it. The GOP has to pick up enough to get Pelosi out the chair. PERIOD. They need to pick up a lot more.

[gidget7]

We should ask ourselves, How many of these so called experts predicted Scott Browns win?