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IT'S OFFICIAL: We're Falling Into A Double-Dip Recession
The Business Insider ^ | 6-4-2010 | Robert Reich

Posted on 06/04/2010 8:26:50 AM PDT by blam

IT'S OFFICIAL: We're Falling Into A Double-Dip Recession

Robert Reich
Jun. 4, 2010, 10:52 AM

We’re falling into a double-dip recession.

The Labor Department reports this morning that the private sector added a measly 41,000 net new jobs in May. (The vast bulk of new jobs in May were temporary government Census workers.) But at least 100,000 new jobs are needed every month just to keep up with population growth.

In other words, the labor market continues to deteriorate.

The average length of unemployment continues to rise – now up to 34.4 weeks (up from 33 weeks in April). That’s another record.

More Americans are too discouraged to look for a job than last year at this time (1.1 million in May, an increase of 291,000 from a year earlier.)

Of the small number of jobs created by the private sector in May, many came from temporary help services.

Which is one reason why the median wage continues to drop.

Why are we having such a hard time getting free of the Great Recession? Because consumers, who constitute 70 percent of the economy, don’t have the dough. They can’t any longer treat their homes as ATMs, as they did before the Great Recession.

Businesses won’t rehire if there’s not enough demand for their goods and services.

The only reason the economy isn’t in a double-dip recession already is because of three temporary boosts: the federal stimulus (of which 75 percent has been spent), near-zero interest rates (which can’t continue much longer without igniting speculative bubbles), and replacements (consumers have had to replace worn-out cars and appliances, and businesses had to replace worn-down inventories). Oh, and, yes, all those Census workers (who will be out on their ears in a month or so).

[snip]

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bhoeconomy; democrats; doubledip; economy; obama; recession; reich; robertreich
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1 posted on 06/04/2010 8:26:50 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam
The Scariest Job Chart Ever Just Got Even Scarier


2 posted on 06/04/2010 8:28:16 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Unexpected....I assume?


3 posted on 06/04/2010 8:28:34 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: blam

Those loose red hairs always screw the hairdo up!


4 posted on 06/04/2010 8:29:27 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: blam
Uh oh. If the Lilliputian says it bad, it must REALLY be bad.

The other thing I worry about is if the global economy recovers, the price of oil will begin to increase again, making our recovery even more difficult. Of course, given what's going on in Europe right now, a global recovery doesn't seem all that likely either.

5 posted on 06/04/2010 8:29:29 AM PDT by OldDeckHand
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To: blam

“The only reason the economy isn’t in a double-dip recession already is because of three temporary boosts”....

And until the double-dip in the White House is boosted....nothing will get better.


6 posted on 06/04/2010 8:31:51 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: blam
Stand up Bob.

Wait, why don't you climb on Daschle's shoulders?

Stopped Clock. Who'da guessed.

7 posted on 06/04/2010 8:31:57 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: blam
Businesses won’t rehire if there’s not enough demand for their goods and services.

that is basically the definition of a deflationary spiral. In response, they will create more money and throw it at the wrong people and the taxpayers will foot the bill. again. My opinion, gold is probably not overpriced.

8 posted on 06/04/2010 8:32:24 AM PDT by RC one (WHAT!!!!)
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To: blam

Thge disaster known as Obama. The sheep who watch TV empoweer him.


9 posted on 06/04/2010 8:35:07 AM PDT by Frantzie (Democrats = Party of I*lam)
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To: blam
And that little upswing on the red curve is probably bogus as hell.
10 posted on 06/04/2010 8:38:46 AM PDT by The Cajun (Mind numbed robot , ditto-head, Hannitized, Levinite)
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To: RC one
Maybe this guy is right?

Richard Russell Dow Theorist: Sell Everything Liquid, You Won't Recognize America By The End Of The Year

11 posted on 06/04/2010 8:39:53 AM PDT by blam
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Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

To: blam
Weird. This is same guy who last week wanted the government to confiscate BP.
13 posted on 06/04/2010 8:59:32 AM PDT by libertylover (The problem with Obama is not that his skin is too black, it's that his ideas are too RED.)
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To: blam

President Barack Obama says the addition of 431,000 new jobs in May shows “the economy is getting stronger by the day.”

Speaking at a trucking company outside Washington, Obama embraced the Labor Department’s new employment snapshot, released Friday morning. A burst of census hiring lifted payrolls last month, and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.7 percent.

Rose colored glasses....


14 posted on 06/04/2010 9:05:40 AM PDT by maddog55 (OBAMA, Why stupid people shouldn't vote.)
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To: blam
We have to get to the core problem: a middle class that doesn’t have the dough to buy the goods and services the economy is capable of producing. Where to start? Expand the Earned Income Tax Credit and extend it up through the middle class. Finance that extension through higher marginal income taxes on the wealthy, who have never had it so good.

So the answer is to provide middle class welfare in the form of Earned Income Tax Credits and then higher taxes to punish small business owners?

It's so easy being a liberal. The answer to every problem is higher taxes and more welfare.

15 posted on 06/04/2010 9:05:46 AM PDT by Senator_Blutarski
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To: blam

Mr Reich is short and to the point.


16 posted on 06/04/2010 9:09:12 AM PDT by OCC
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To: AngelesCrestHighway

A positive scenario right now would be for the economy to go teats up again, prompting the expected republican slaughter of the left in November, resulting in some real opposition to the commiebammie, and then we might see a recovery with some spine, AFTER next winter. Course, they’s lots can go wrong out’chare.


17 posted on 06/04/2010 9:11:25 AM PDT by ichabod1 (Meh, soccer. It’s just commie kickball.)
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To: blam

For all the jobs “added” we sure seem to stay around 450,000 weekly unemployment claims. I’d like to see IRS figures on just how many people have W-2/1099 wages reported every month. I have no doubt it continues to decline every month.


18 posted on 06/04/2010 9:21:44 AM PDT by CodeToad
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To: blam

The ‘government employee’ bubble has to burst soon, and will make the subprime bubble look like mouse knuckles. Federal, State, and local governments are upside down because of declining tax receipts, high payrolls and union pensions.


19 posted on 06/04/2010 9:44:12 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: blam

...half thru the trading day and the DOW is down 240 @10013...we’ll see if it breaks below 10000 for the day...the 3-4 pm hour could be very interesting.


20 posted on 06/04/2010 9:50:07 AM PDT by STONEWALLS
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To: blam

The urban blue zones are failing. Meanwhile out here in flyover country the corner has been turned. There is new construction both residential and commercial. Several, but not all stalled projects are restarted. Houses are selling albeit not at former rates but prices are above ‘08 levels.


21 posted on 06/04/2010 9:54:14 AM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Ostracize Democrats. There can be no Democrat friends.)
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To: RC one
Businesses won’t rehire if there’s not enough demand for their goods and services.

that is basically the definition of a deflationary spiral. In response, they will create more money and throw it at the wrong people and the taxpayers will foot the bill. again. My opinion, gold is probably not overpriced.

Oh, I think I see what you're saying. So, I don't have enough money or confidence to buy anything more than the bare minimum I need to keep going. Moreover, some debts have gone sour because I MUST get some money in the bank for emergencies. This creates the deflationary pressure. The government then prints a bunch of money and gives it to the unions, Wall Street bankers, and State Governments. This is inflationary. But *I* still don't have any money, and now my taxes and fees are pushing up. This is how we get stagflation - or something new. Inflation and deflation at the same time.

22 posted on 06/04/2010 9:59:25 AM PDT by ichabod1 (Meh, soccer. It’s just commie kickball.)
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To: maddog55

mmmm.... mmmmm.... mmmmm...


23 posted on 06/04/2010 9:59:54 AM PDT by ichabod1 (Meh, soccer. It’s just commie kickball.)
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To: OldDeckHand

Double dip recession my royal backside, we are heading into the Obama DEPRESSION!


24 posted on 06/04/2010 10:11:10 AM PDT by GailA (obamacare paid for by cuts & taxes on most vulnerable Veterans, retired Military, disabled & Seniors)
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To: blam

I’m actually looking forward to the collapse of the government. We’ll be able to peacfully pick up the pieces.


25 posted on 06/04/2010 10:39:17 AM PDT by GingisK
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To: blam

Bump


26 posted on 06/04/2010 10:40:43 AM PDT by Jet Jaguar (*)
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To: blam

Wow, Robert Reich said this? I wonder what Obama did to piss him off.


27 posted on 06/04/2010 10:52:40 AM PDT by Hoodat (.For the weapons of our warfare are mighty in God for pulling down strongholds.)
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To: Hoodat

Robert Reich is a CLINTON Man ... just consider this a “targeting shot” by Bill and Hilliary ... getting her ready for a the 2012 run ...


28 posted on 06/04/2010 10:54:55 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Angels and Ministers of Grace, Defend Us ....)
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To: GailA

Congress and the administration made a major economic policy error when they passed the health care “reform” bill. That bill created huge uncertainty about future health care costs for business, which has essentially caused a hiring freeze in all but the biggest and most profitable corporations. The democrats couldn’t have written a more economically destructive piece of legislation and then passed it at the worst possible time, just as the economy is struggling to emerge from a recession.

I heard an interview with a Fortune 500 CEO who had lunch with Obama and told him that the health care bill was going to damage our economy. The CEO said Obama’s reaction was essentially to tell the CEO that he was lying about the economic impact of this legislation. That response from Obama shows that the White House and democrat congressional leaders have no understanding of how government regulations and taxation affect the private sector. They think the private sector just keeps rolling along and hiring lots of people regardless of government policies, and that is just not true. Government policy has a big impact on private sector hiring and economic growth. Government policy is the main reason why socialist Europe is in such a mess right now and why we’re having a real struggle to get out of this recession.

We’re approaching a turning point soon where the economy is either going to continue to grow slowly or it’s going to fall back into a double-dip recession. Economic indicators are mixed and inconclusive lately, but a strong recovery is looking increasingly unlikely.


29 posted on 06/04/2010 10:58:43 AM PDT by socialism_stinX (He didn't invent fresh brewed coffee, but he perfected the art of sipping it during tennis warm-up.)
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To: Hoodat

That is what I said too...Hillary takes the first of many knives out...this one is going to send waves...be sure to add to the current and share this with everyone.


30 posted on 06/04/2010 10:59:47 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache (Obama is Dangerclown The Manchild)
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To: My Favorite Headache

I doubt that Reich is out to get Obama. He’s trying to prevent bigger economic problems for the dems by calling for more deficit spending in the short term and deficit reduction in the long run.

I think the best thing congress could do for our economy is to admit that they made a big mistake and just repeal the entire health care “reform” bill immediately. That would remove a huge cloud of uncertainty over the private sector about future tax increases and health care costs.


31 posted on 06/04/2010 11:07:01 AM PDT by socialism_stinX (He didn't invent fresh brewed coffee, but he perfected the art of sipping it during tennis warm-up.)
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To: blam

Job prosperity won’t return until the jobs and factories exported by both parties are restored. Tax cuts and green jobs are placebos. If American companies want to invest throughout the world to take advantage of cheaper labor and environmental standards, we have to reduce our standard of living to meet the lowest competition or tax the hell out of foreign imports so as to make them uneconomical. Yes it will raise prices. So what - people will make the money to afford. Lower prices and lower jobs is no solution.


32 posted on 06/04/2010 11:15:34 AM PDT by ex-snook ("You will know they are Christians by their love.")
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To: GingisK
I’m actually looking forward to the collapse of the government. We’ll be able to peacfully pick up the pieces.

Has the collapse of any government ever resulted in people "peacefully" picking up the pieces ?

.

33 posted on 06/04/2010 11:30:13 AM PDT by repentant_pundit (O.fficially B.ecoming A.nother Mao ... that's our 0BAMao.)
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To: ichabod1

that’s basically it. as I see it anyways. There are deflationary forces intrinsic to the free market that will not be reversed by increases in the monetary supply, especially not the way they’re injecting the money into the system. This “bailout” was a robbery, not a bailout and now they’re going to try to do it again. BOHICA


34 posted on 06/04/2010 12:27:34 PM PDT by RC one (WHAT!!!!)
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To: blam; potlatch; ntnychik; BOBTHENAILER

35 posted on 06/04/2010 12:31:50 PM PDT by PhilDragoo (Hussein: Islamo-Commie from Kenya)
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To: CodeToad

Even if it doesn’t actually decline the effect is the same, we have more young people every month looking for their first job and not finding it. There are more unemployed college graduates now than unemployed high school dropouts.


36 posted on 06/04/2010 1:07:01 PM PDT by RipSawyer (Trying to reason with a leftist is like trying to catch sunshine in a fish net at midnight.)
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To: PhilDragoo; devolve; ntnychik; All
Obama will cause more than a double dip, more like octo-dips!  

   Temporary census jobs accounted for 411,000 of the May increase in payrolls. What happens when all these 'temporary' jobs stop, do they all go on unemployment? - - which gets extended, and extended... Government jobs have accounted for the majority of job increase.

37 posted on 06/04/2010 2:01:28 PM PDT by potlatch
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To: RipSawyer

Very true. I think there is about 4 million high school grads, or 18 year olds, each year, so, unless 4 million die each year we had better gain 4 million jobs.


38 posted on 06/04/2010 2:03:41 PM PDT by CodeToad
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To: Hoodat

You beat me to it.
Shorty wrote this? Wow.


39 posted on 06/04/2010 2:08:09 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: The Cajun
And that little upswing on the red curve is probably bogus as hell.

Census jobs and stim jobs.

Both will fade in the summer heat.....

40 posted on 06/04/2010 2:10:40 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: blam
Businesses won’t rehire if there’s not enough demand for their goods and services.

Also with Obamacare costs, cap & trade energy costs, local & state taxes going up, the Bush tax cuts expiring...there is certainly no reason/way to hire new people. Also, the motivation to start a business, with all those things looming, is gone.

41 posted on 06/04/2010 2:14:56 PM PDT by BookmanTheJanitor
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To: repentant_pundit
...ever resulted in people "peacefully" picking up the pieces ?

I don't know. Probably not. All that aside, I think people would actually live thier lives with more intensity without the entrapments of our current society. Gee, without electricity the video games and televisions would go dead. They'd have to join real life. They'd literally have to fight for a living. Sounds nice, except that I'm too old.

42 posted on 06/04/2010 3:15:20 PM PDT by GingisK
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To: potlatch

Whoops, probably no ‘unemployment’ benefits for temp workers....


43 posted on 06/04/2010 3:21:08 PM PDT by potlatch
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To: potlatch

.

LOL!

Is that Obama’s
“TAR BABY” top scoop up there?


44 posted on 06/04/2010 5:00:07 PM PDT by devolve (. . . . off the air sorta . . . .)
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To: devolve

Hi devolve!
Lol, you keep thinking about tar babies.
I was thinking of double, triple, etc, dips.
Val coming soon


45 posted on 06/04/2010 5:08:50 PM PDT by potlatch
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To: potlatch

.

“TAR BALLS”

The new “BARACKY ROAD”

“BARACK HOLE” once worked a few days in his youth in an ice cream shop -

Better get snacks ready!


46 posted on 06/04/2010 5:15:02 PM PDT by devolve (. . . . off the air sorta . . . .)
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To: devolve

No snacks, just had dinner


47 posted on 06/04/2010 5:17:43 PM PDT by potlatch
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To: potlatch

.

Chili-’Taters here


48 posted on 06/04/2010 7:09:43 PM PDT by devolve (. . . . off the air sorta . . . .)
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To: devolve
J
49 posted on 06/04/2010 9:25:56 PM PDT by potlatch
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To: blam
Wow! Robert B. Reischhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! Trashing the Obama performance metric! Wow!
50 posted on 06/04/2010 10:02:18 PM PDT by April Lexington (Study the constitution so you know what they are taking away!)
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