Free Republic

(CNNMoney) -- Spain has fallen into its second recession since 2009 as its economy shrank for the second consecutive quarter, according to a government report Monday. There are now a dozen European nations that have had their economies shrink for two consecutive quarters, a condition that generally equates to a recession. The Spanish economy, struggling with the aftermath of the bursting of a housing bubble, has been particularly hard hit by the economic turmoil rolling across Europe. On Friday, the government reported that Spain's unemployment rate hit record high of 24.4%.

Britain's economy slid into its second recession since the financial crisis after official data unexpectedly showed a fall in output in the first three months of 2012, piling pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron's embattled coalition government. The Office for National Statistics said Britain's gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2012 after contracting by 0.3 percent at the end of 2011, confounding forecasts for 0.1 percent growth. Most economists had expected Britain's $2.4 trillion economy to eke out modest growth in the early 2012, but these forecasts were upset by the biggest fall in construction...

Higher U.S. Gas Prices And The Illusion Of Economic Recovery Economics / US Economy Apr 01, 2012 - 02:25 AM By: Bob Chapman The housing recovery seems to have been a temporary affair. Preliminary data frames March as weak as last October. It looks like lower interest rates boasted sales. Those rates are up from 4.72% to 5.02%. Worse yet, Operation Twist is over. That is where the Fed sold the short end of the bond market and bought notes and bonds of 5, 7, 10 and 30 years. Even though the BIS, The Bank for International Settlements, said the...

Is The Double Dip Drifting Away? Dean Baker Oct. 21, 2011, 8:12 AM One of the items that many of the forecasters warning of a double dip held up as evidence was the drop in Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index in September. It showed a reading of -17.5, which is definitely pretty bad. While the index, like most indexes, does generally move in step with the overall economy, the Philadelphia Fed's coverage is a relatively narrow slice of the country (most eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey). Since this reading was out of line with most other data, it seemed more likely...

This Economist Is Forecasting A Recession, And He's Never Been Wrong Economics / Double Dip Recession Oct 04, 2011 - 07:03 AM By: Money Morning David Zeiler writes: The U.S. economy is "tipping into a new recession" and there's nothing President Barack Obama or the U.S. Federal Reserve can do to prevent it, according to Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Now, if you're wondering why you should believe this prediction ahead of others then there's something you should know: According to The Economist, Achuthan's predictions on the direction of economy - either toward recession or...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The U.S. economy is staring down another recession, according to a forecast from the Economic Cycle Research Institute. "It's either just begun, or it's right in front of us," said Lakshman Achuthan, the managing director of ECRI. "But at this point that's a detail. The critical news is there's no turning back. We are going to have a new recession." The ECRI produces widely-followed leading indicators which predict when the economy is moving between recession and expansion. Achuthan said all those indicators are now pointing to a new economic downturn in the immediate future. His recession...

A new series of economic reports out today confirm U.S. economists’ fear that the early signs of a second recession are taking hold. Weekly jobless claims hit a 2-month high indicating employers are pulling back in an already weak labor market. Labor Department figures show jobless benefits applications rose 11,000 to 428,000 last week, pushing the average up for the fourth straight week to 419,500. Economists agree that applications need to dip below 375,000 to signal hiring is picking up enough to cut the nation’s 9.1 percent unemployment rate. “The trend in jobless claims is an important input into our...

If history is a guide, the odds that the American economy is falling into a double-dip recession have risen sharply in recent weeks and may even have reached 50 percent. Economies have a strong self-reinforcing nature. When people are optimistic, they spend, which begets hiring and then more spending. When people are anxious, they pull back, which leads to a cycle of hiring freezes and further anxiety that often lasts for months. The United States appears to have entered some version of the vicious cycle. Most ominously, job growth has slowed to a pace that typically signals the start of...

The data this week was just ugly. Even the uptick in the leading economic indicators, seized upon by so many talking heads, must have a large asterisk beside it. This week we look at the increasing probability that we are headed for recession, and the follow-on implications. Then I take a perilous and speculative journey into the realm of the political, commenting on Texas (and my) Governor Rick Perry’s rather interesting comments about the Fed and Ben Bernanke. There is a lot to cover, and lots of charts, so we will jump right in. But please read at the end...

The U.S. economy has officially been out of recession for two years, but fear of falling back into the abyss has dogged the recovery every step of the way. Now, the prospect of recession no longer is a fringe view. "Recession is not inevitable, but I think there's better than a 50-50 chance now," said Bill Gross, the respected investment chief at bond fund giant Pimco in Newport Beach. Stock markets worldwide have been ringing warning bells since late July, as share prices have plunged in the steepest pullback since the 2008 financial-system crash. The Dow Jones index sank nearly...

FLORENCE, Alabama | FLORENCE, Alabama (Reuters) - The risk of a new U.S. recession has risen over the last couple of months, but an outright contraction will most likely be avoided, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart said on Monday. Lockhart said there is plenty the central bank could do if the economy does deteriorate further, including ramping up asset purchases or shifting their composition. Recent market volatility, driven in part by concerns of slowing economies both in the United States and Europe, threatens consumer confidence and could put a crimp on spending, Lockhart told a Rotary Club meeting....

John Boehner said Tuesday the Republicans got “90 percent of what we wanted” from the budget deal. So presumably he and his colleagues are willing to take responsibility for some 450 points of yesterday’s mammoth 513-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I’m being a bit facetious – but only a bit. It’s always dangerous to read too much into one day’s move in the stock market. As we’ve learned painfully over the last several years, Wall Street investors are not entirely rational. Yet the stock sell-off – not just yesterday’s, but that of the last days – cannot...

Investors seeking reason for optimism after the worst stock-market sell-off since the 2008 financial crisis probably won't find it in Friday's July jobs report. Economists forecast that employers added only 90,000 jobs last month and that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.2 percent, according to a survey by FactSet. That would mark an improvement over the 18,000 net jobs created in June — the fewest in nine months — and the 25,000 in May. But over time, 90,000 new jobs a month wouldn't even be enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising. Nor would it erase fears on...

Recession: A day after purchasing managers reported an "unexpected" slump in manufacturing, another surprise report shows consumer spending falling for the first time in nearly two years. Double dip, anyone? Despite of the largest Keynesian spending splurge in the history of the planet, the economy continues to founder. The last two years' "stimulus" — meant to get consumers and businesses humming again — was in excess of 10% of GDP, an unheard of economic intervention, exceeding even FDR's during the Depression.

Chances are 'substantial' that the United States is headed back into a recession, says economist, author and Yale University Professor Robert Shiller. A weak U.S. housing market and a murky global economy indicate that the country is at a "tipping point" at the edge of a fresh economic contraction.

Six weeks ago this column observed that with the price of gold having passed $1,500, the U.S. economy was already in the midst of a downturn, and that it would be foolhardy to wait for always backward looking and unreliable government statistics to reveal what gold already had. Though unemployment figures are as unreliable as the rest, Friday's anemic report points to a slowdown in economic activity that the dollar's fall in concert with gold's spike foretold. The reason why is very basic. Contrary to the popular view among economists that currency devaluation is necessary during periods of economic hardship,...

The US has entered a second recession. It may not be as bad as the first. Economists say that the Great Recession began in December 2007 and lasted until July 2009. That may be the way that the economy was seen through the eyes of experts, but many Americans do not believe that the 2008-2009 downturn ever ended. A Gallup poll released in April found that 29% of those queried thought the economy was in a “depression” and 26% said that the original recession had persisted into 2011. It is any wonder that many Americans believe that the economic downturn...

You know that $400,000 house you want to buy; offer them $350,000. If they don’t take it now, they will soon enough. This chart from Business Insider shows what the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index looks like on a graph chart: bad. National home prices are back to their 2002 levels, according to the index data released May 31. As of March 2011, US home prices fell 4.2% in the first quarter after falling 3.6% in the fourth quarter in 2010. Home prices are down 5.1% from the first quarter last year, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller report. “This month’s report...

A double-dip in home prices, pessimistic consumers and a slowdown in regional manufacturing raised concerns on Tuesday that the economy's soft patch could become protracted. "The question is, 'Is the softer data we're seeing transitory, or is it likely to persist throughout the remainder of 2011?' Right now, that's an open question that investors are trying to figure out," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut.The U.S. economy grew at a tepid 1.8 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, and these fresh signs suggest the recovery is still struggling to...

U.S. single-family home prices dropped in March, dipping below their 2009 low, as the housing market remained bogged down by inventory and weak demand, a closely watched survey said Tuesday. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 0.2 percent in March from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, in line with economists' expectations. The price index was below the low seen in April 2009 during the financial crisis. The glut of houses for sale, foreclosures, tight credit and weak demand have kept the housing market on the ropes even as other areas of the economy start to...

Caixin Online May 13, 2011, 12:35 a.m. EDT Chimerica’s slippery slope to stagflation Commentary: U.S., China are heading to another double-dip scare By Andy Xie BEIJING ( Caixin Online ) — The global economy is heading toward another double-dip scare, possibly in the third quarter, in what could be a repeat of summer 2010. Financial markets may stumble in a few months, and that could prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to introduce a third round of quantitative easing or an equivalent, which would be another step down the path toward stagflation. In this scenario, China’s current monetary-tightening policy would be...

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. (MarketWatch) — The evidence of a double-dipping housing market and economy are becoming undeniable, even to those who cling perilously to the notion that government intervention has been a salve instead of a poison. The main evidence presented on the part of the “permabulls” of a healing economy is that corporate earnings have been good. However, S&P 500 earnings from multinational corporations have been significantly boosted by a U.S. dollar DXY +1.28% that has lost nearly 15% of its value in the past 12 months. So earnings look great, but they don’t buy you very much, while...

From CoreLogic (via PragCap): CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), a leading provider of information, analytics and business services, today released its February Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. declined for the seventh month in a row. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 6.7 percent in February 2011 compared to February 2010 after declining by 5.5 percent* in January 2011 compared to January 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.1 percent in February 2011 compared to February 2010 and by 1.4* percent in January 2011 compared to January...

PHILADELPHIA - This may not sound new because we've been talking about it in Philadelphia in connection with its Deferred Retirement Option Plan, or DROP. That has cost the pension fund millions and been abused by elected officials. But now we're looking at it happening in New Jersey. Several high-ranking political leaders found a loophole allowing them to retire and then go back to work, collecting a pension and salary at the same time. Gov. Chris Christie says he will try to close the loophole. But we don't know how many people or even who is doing this. It comes...

Why aren’t Americans being told the truth about the economy? We’re heading in the direction of a double dip – but you’d never know it if you listened to the upbeat messages coming out of Wall Street and Washington. Consumers are 70 percent of the American economy, and consumer confidence is plummeting. It’s weaker today on average than at the low point of the Great Recession. The Reuters/University of Michigan survey shows a 10 point decline in March – the tenth largest drop on record. Part of that drop is attributable to rising fuel and food prices. A separate Conference...

The Truth About The Economy: We're Heading Back Toward A Double Dip Robert Reich Mar. 31, 2011, 10:31 AM Why aren’t Americans being told the truth about the economy? We’re heading in the direction of a double dip – but you’d never know it if you listened to the upbeat messages coming out of Wall Street and Washington. Consumers are 70 percent of the American economy, and consumer confidence is plummeting. It’s weaker today on average than at the low point of the Great Recession. The Reuters/University of Michigan survey shows a 10 point decline in March – the tenth...

The Housing Double Dip Gets Worse AGAIN Joe Weisenthal Mar. 29, 2011, 9:10 AM Courtesy of the Case-Shiller survey, more proof that the housing double dip is getting worse. On a year-over-year basis, house prices fell 3.1% vs. the 2.4% decline in January.

The U.S. economy faces numerous obstacles that threaten to derail the recovery. But economists are most fearful of one major headwind: oil prices. More than two-thirds of the 23 economists surveyed by CNNMoney identified high oil prices as the most serious risk facing the economy. As uprisings spread across the Middle East and North Africa, prices have soared about 15% in the past two months, pushing gas prices higher. And as the situation in Libya escalates, economists are growing more jittery about oil prices, even in the face of other threats to the economy, like the crisis in Japan, cuts...

U.S. stocks plunged deep into the red, joining a global market selloff that started in Tokyo as Japan's nuclear crisis deepened and worries escalated over the human and economic toll of last week's earthquake. The selloff came after news of two more explosions at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear-power plant that released large amounts of nuclear material into the atmosphere. Prime Minister Naoto Kan warned of "substantial" radiation leaks. The Nikkei Stock Average plunged more than 14% at one point in afternoon trade before recovering slightly. It was still its worst drop since 2008. The fall came on top of Monday's...

Technically a housing double dip won't happen until national home prices fall below the 2009 low, as David Blitzer explained on CNBC this morning. But today's Case-Shiller chart sure looks like a double dip. In fact, 11 of the cities in Case-Shiller's 20-city index are at new lows for the cycle. These include Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle and Tampa. In the coming year, Case-Shiller expects more cities to decline, sinking the national index to a brand new low. CLICK ABOVE LINK TO VIEW THE CITIES AND THE PERCENT DROP

Outgoing White House economic adviser Larry Summers warned Wednesday that failure to pass a new tax cut compromise would significantly raise the risk of a double-dip recession. "To pass this bill in the next couple of weeks would materially increase the risk that the economy would stall out and we would have a double dip," he told reporters at the White House.

The US economy added a worse-than-expected 39,000 jobs in November, as the unemployment rate edged higher, underscoring the weakness of a labour market recovery that is struggling to gain traction. snippet... “Any thought that the Fed would scale back its QE2 purchases of Treasuries in the coming months has to be dashed by this report,” said John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros, economists at RDQ Economics. snippet... “Today’s numbers underscore the importance of extending expiring tax cuts for the middle class and unemployment insurance for those Americans who have lost their jobs,” said Austan Goolsbee, head of the White House’s Council...

The United States, Japan and large parts of Europe have exhausted their policy arsenal, leaving them defenceless against a double-dip recession as recovery slows to ‘stall speed’. “The US has run out of bullets,” said Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University, and one of a caste of luminaries with grim forecasts at the annual Ambrosetti conference on Lake Como. “More quantitative easing (bond purchases) by the Federal Reserve is not going to make any difference. Treasury yields are already down to 2.5pc yet credit spreads are widening again. Monetary policy can boost liquidity but it can’t deal with solvency...

13 Signs That The Double Dip Is Now Toast Joe Weisenthal Nov. 8, 2010, 10:09 AM In early September, we identified 9 signs that the double dip was almost certainly toast. Since then, markets have rallied massively, and the economic news has only improved. Whether you're looking at financial markets or real-world economic activity, there are signs all over the place that the nail is being hammered right now in the coffin of the double dippers. Yes, the US still has serious structural problems but for now, things are looking up. Click here to see the signs >

Double Dip Delayed, Not Derailed; Understanding Consumer Spending by: Michael Shedlock October 29, 2010 The BEA Advance GDP for Third Quarter 2010 came in at +2.0%. However, Table 2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product shows that Change in private inventories contributed +1.44 while real final sales contributed a mere .6. How sustainable is that? The answer is not very. This is likely the last hurrah for inventory replenishment even without factoring in upcoming cutbacks at the state level. Not a V-Shaped Recovery In terms of real final sales, this "recovery", is the weakest on record. Dave...

David Rosenberg: Q3 GDP Was Just 80 Basis Points Shy Of A Double Dip Joe Weisenthal Oct. 29, 2010, 12:18 PM Put David Rosenberg in the Roubini camp: Q3 GDP sucked, and was this close to a double dip. -------------------------------- U.S. real GDP expanded at an as-expected 2% annual rate in the third quarter in what is turning out to be a classic case of a muddle-through economy. Inching ahead but not at a fast enough pace to have any meaningful impact with regard to addressing the unprecedented amount of excess slack in the labour market. To be sure, 2.0%...

ECRI Chief: We Can Categorically Say There Is NO Double Dip Joe Weisenthal Oct. 29, 2010, 6:28 AM Lakshman Achuthan, the head of the ECRI, which publishes a highly watched leading-indicators report, categorically denies that there will be a double dip. Given the focus on the ECRI leading indicators this summer -- an index that prompted David Rosenberg and others to see a double dip -- this is pretty remarkable stuff. He says the Fed is behind the curve, and not seeing the comeback in the economy that ECRI is already seeing in October.[snip]

Architecture Billings Index Points To Real Recovery, Reduced Chance Of Double Dip by: Mark Perry October 20, 2010 Washington, D.C. – October 20, 2010 – "For the first time since January 2008, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) indicated a growth in design activity in September, increasing for the fourth straight month. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the September 2010 (Overall National) ABI score was 50.4, up from a reading of 48.2 the previous...

Here Comes A Double Dip Recession... Gary Shilling, A. Gary Shilling & Co. Sep. 18, 2010, 8:23 AM The following note from Gary Shilling was forwarded by John Mauldin of Thoughts For The Frontline. John includes a short note at the beginning and end. -- Ed. I am on a plane (yet again) from Zurich to Mallorca, where I will meet with my European and South American partners, have some fun, and relax before heading to Denmark and London. With the mad rush to finish my book (more on that later) and a hectic schedule this week, I have not...

The Housing Double Dip Is Here by: Cullen Roche September 16, 2010 The always excellent Diana Olick of CNBC reports that the housing double dip is already upon us. In a story issued yesterday, Olick cites two new reports that confirm why she believes the housing double dip is already beginning: Two new reports out today prove the consequences of oversupply of organic inventory (12.5 months on existing homes in July according to the National Association of Realtors) and the shadow inventory of foreclosed properties (estimates vary widely and wildly). CoreLogic’s Home Price Index shows home prices “flat” in July...

The trouble with many of the "indicators" we report is that some are pretty current and others are severely lagging. Home sales are generally the former and home prices the latter. That's why, given the combination of the expiration of the home buyer tax credit and the increasing number of loans moving to final foreclosure, we knew that home prices overall would take a hit, but it would take a while. Well we're here. Two new reports out today prove the consequences of oversupply of organic inventory (12.5 months on existing homes in July according to the National Association of...

StrategyOne Survey: Two-Thirds of Americans Expect Double-Dip Recession, Brace for Second Hit Worse Than the First Public fearful about prospects for economic recovery Almost half see America's 'best days' behind us, 7 in 10 concerned country is 'fundamentally broken and not working' NEW YORK, Sept. 9 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Almost two in three Americans (65%) say a double-dip recession — defined as a recession followed by a short-lived recovery, followed by another recession — is now likely to happen. Among those who expect a double-dip recession, nearly half (44%) fear it will be worse than the first one, with 21% worried...

Can America Recover When The Majority Of Americans See A Double Dip, And Think The Country Is Fundamentally Broken? Joe Weisenthal Sep. 10, 2010, 4:59 AM Earlier this week we asked, can the economy really recover when 92% of the population says the economy is garbage in a survey? That was the number in a WSJ/NBC poll, and it would seem to indicate a major headwind in terms of sentiment. Here's more of what the average guy thinks, and it's bad. Felix Salmon points to a survey from a group called StrategyOne. The main findings -- most Americans think a...

Fed signals 'widespread' slowdown By Neil Irwin Washington Post Staff Writer Thursday, September 9, 2010; A14 The U.S. economy continued growing this summer, but "with widespread signs of deceleration," according to a new report on business conditions around the country. The Federal Reserve's "beige book," an eight-times-a-year compilation of anecdotal information from companies in the 12 Fed districts, offers a portrait of an uncertain economic moment in which growth has slowed in much of the United States. "Economic growth at a modest pace was the most common characterization of overall conditions," said the report, released Wednesday afternoon and based on...

Roubini: The Economy Is So Weak Now That Any Shock Will Cause A Double-Dip Vincent Fernando, CFA Sep. 5, 2010, 1:22 PM The latest view from Nouriel Roubini is that there's a whopping 40% chance of the U.S. economy double-dipping into recession due to the fact that the government is now helpless to defend against any unexpected economic shock which may occur. Telegraph: “We have reached stall speed. Any shock at this point can tip you back into recession. With interbank spreads rising, you can get a vicious circle like 2008-2009,” he said, describing a self-feeding process as the real...

August 30, 2010 Goolsbee tells Blitzer: ‘We’ve got to be mindful,’ prevent a double dip recession Posted: August 30th, 2010 03:19 PM ET (CNN) - In an interview just taped for The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer, Austan Goolsbee, one of President Obama’s top political advisors and the chief economist for the White House Economic Recovery Advisory Board, said he doesn’t anticipate a double dip recession. But the economist added that economists should be “mindful” of the possibility.

The pessimism is so thick you can cut it with a paper knife. Stocks are testing the lows of early summer. The second-quarter gross domestic product got a big downward revision Friday morning. Yet I remain convinced we're not in a double-dip recession, and I think stocks should be accumulated at these levels. Here are my three reasons. The first is gold. If the global economy was really heading toward another big leg down, we wouldn't see gold creeping back up to within a couple percentage points of its all-time high. (As loyal readers know, gold has been my "best-idea"...

THERE WILL BE NO DOUBLE DIP….. August 16th, 2010 Egon von Greyerz No, there will be no double dip. It will be a lot worse. The world economy will soon go into an accelerated and precipitous decline which will make the 2007 to early 2009 downturn seem like a walk in the park. The world financial system has temporarily been on life support by trillions of printed dollars that governments call money. But the effect of this massive money printing is ephemeral since it is not possible to save a world economy built on worthless paper by creating more of...

Forget A Double Dip. We’re Still In One Long Big Dipper (Robert Reich)Robert Reich Saturday, August 14, 2010 It’s nonsense to think of the economy heading downward again into a double dip when most Americans never emerged from the first dip. We’re still in one long Big Dipper. More people are out of work today than they were last year, counting everyone too discouraged even to look for work. The number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to highest level since February. Not counting temporary census workers, a total of only 12,000 net new private...

That noise you hear, that's the sound of helicopters in the distance. While they may be in the distance, they are closer than they have been in quite some time, and chief pilot Ben Bernanke is leading the squadron. We are now coming up on three months of very anemic economic growth, so limp many economists fear we are closer than we have ever been to a double dip. GDP registered a paltry 2.4% in the second quarter, a very disappointing number, especially after the economy has fallen so far despite the huge spending in the stimulus plan.The only real...