Posted on 09/30/2011 9:06:34 AM PDT by Signalman
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The U.S. economy is staring down another recession, according to a forecast from the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
"It's either just begun, or it's right in front of us," said Lakshman Achuthan, the managing director of ECRI. "But at this point that's a detail. The critical news is there's no turning back. We are going to have a new recession."
The ECRI produces widely-followed leading indicators which predict when the economy is moving between recession and expansion. Achuthan said all those indicators are now pointing to a new economic downturn in the immediate future.
His recession call puts him ahead of most other forecasters. A CNNMoney survey of economists this week pointed to a one-in-three chance of a new recession in the next six months. The most bearish predictions put the odds at 50-50.
Achuthan said it is still possible that the recession will be mild this time, lasting less than a year with relatively limited job losses. But he said if there are shocks to the system, such as another financial meltdown due to the European sovereign debt crisis, it could become a very serious and deep recession.
His call comes the day after the government's final report on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic health, showed weak growth of only 1.3% in the three months ending in June. Achuthan said he's confident that the recession either began in the third quarter, which ends today, or will begin in the fourth quarter.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
Another recession, the same recession...some difference. ;-)
10% growth is around the corner. /s
Yeah. October always scares me. ;-p
In other words, no we are not into another recession.
We never left the first recession; we are now headed to the 0bamaDepression.
I refer to King FDR’s as “The First Great Depression”.
Looking at the data, if the leading indicators are showing us what I think they are, the NBER might call a recession as beginning in June of this year.
That will be months into the future, of course. The last time they made a call of recession it took them 11 months to make the call.
You oughta read up on the Long Depression of the 1870’s, with a crash that started in 1873.
If you remove the Federal Government's profligate spending,
The Economy never left the Recession, and remember kiddies
This Monster is being built squarely on your backs
Thanks, will do.
There was a time when I worried that an economic upturn (or at least the illusion of one) would bail out Baraq for the 2012 election.
It’s pretty obvious that’s not happening.....
No joy.
All they got was a temporary surge in commodity and stock prices, then the money stopped.
The Velocity of Money remains at historic lows.
Depression... we have to live it so call it what it truly is.
LLS
YOY Annualized change in GDP vs YOY change in Public Debt
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