Posted on 06/07/2010 10:50:19 AM PDT by blam
Ritholtz: Forget The Signs Of A Rough Patch, This Is Not What A "Double Dip" Looks Like
Joe Weisenthal
Jun. 7, 2010, 11:20 AM
Following last week's dismal jobs report, and the deflationary signals coming out of various markets, the "double dip" camp has recently swelled in size.
But before you jump into the cool kids club and get negative, you should get some perspective, which Barry Ritholtz helpfully provides:
This is, historically speaking, normal. ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan told Newsweek: “You always have a spurt in growth out of recession and then you throttle back. But we’d need to see a pronounced, pervasive, and persistent decline in the level of the leading indicators to start talking about recession risk.”
That “pronounced, pervasive, and persistent decline” is simply not present. Indeed, double dip recessions are actually rather rare. As Yale Professor Robert Shiller pointed out in a recent Sunday NYT article, “When inflation-adjusted G.D.P. has come out of a decline and posted three or four quarters of gains, it has never immediately begun to fall again — at least not since quarterly numbers began to be issued in 1947.”
And that is what we have had — a year of improving GDP. Following the initial surge in data off of the lows, we have entered a slowing phase of the recovery.
The key factor regarding all of this slowing data is that it is suggestive of an economy that will continue to expand, albeit at a slower pace. None of this data is highly aberrational, and none of it is consistent with past double dip recessions.
[snip]
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
ping
This is like telling the people of Hiroshima, the day after the bomb was dropped, “This is not what Hell looks like!”
“Indeed, double dip recessions are actually rather rare. “
So are world banking collapses...
Precarious, depends on Europe and China.
War with the Norkies? With Iran?
These guys are stone idjits.
Obama is maneuvering behind the scenes to nationalize oil corporations.There will be no recovery as long as that thing is in the White House.
This article is far to narrow in scope to predict accurately.
The market "recovery" is designed to grind away people's wealth.
Indicators only look positive because of huge government spending and hiring - something that is totally unsustainable.
In reality, it is all just smoke and mirrors.
Until a large amount of both private and public debt is cleaned up I doubt we are going anywhere positive for some time.
Good one.
“When inflation-adjusted G.D.P. has come out of a decline and posted three or four quarters of gains, it has never immediately begun to fall again — at least not since quarterly numbers began to be issued in 1947.”
Excellent. So when this DOES happen, Obama’s inept policies, rather than normal economic trends, must be the culprit. Nevertheless, it will be hilarious to see what kind of finger-pointing and blame-shifting Obama and Gibbs come up with once this happens.
Gosh, wouldn’t it be a shame if clear signs of the double-dip emerged prior to Nov. 2?
Jane says it’s going to be a lightning bolt recession, not a double dib, not a w-shaped, but a lightning bolt.
Exactly.
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