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The Keynesian Dead End
WSJ ^

Posted on 06/26/2010 5:59:46 AM PDT by shove_it

Spending our way to prosperity is going out of style.

Today's G-20 meeting has been advertised as a showdown between the U.S. and Europe over more spending "stimulus," and so it is. But the larger story is the end of the neo-Keynesian economic moment, and perhaps the start of a healthier policy turn.

For going on three years, the developed world's economic policy has been dominated by the revival of the old idea that vast amounts of public spending could prevent deflation, cure a recession, and ignite a new era of government-led prosperity. It hasn't turned out that way.

Now the political and fiscal bills are coming due even as the U.S. and European economies are merely muddling along. The Europeans have had enough and want to swear off the sauce, while the Obama Administration wants to keep running a bar tab. So this would seem to be a good time to examine recent policy history and assess the results.

[...]

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Government
KEYWORDS: economics; economy; euronomics; keynesian; marxism; obama; socialism
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To: Erik Latranyi
We are talking about socialists whose entire power derives from spending other people’s money.

They will never change.

As certain countries are discovering these days via the bond markets, even governments sometimes have no choice.

Margaret Thatcher was absolutely right. Eventually, you run out of other people's money.

21 posted on 06/26/2010 9:57:17 AM PDT by jpl (It's "My Big Fat Deadly Greek Riot", coming soon to a bankrupt socialist state near you.)
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To: kabar
Yes, that is the article's take.

I see it differently. I think the snow-job of propaganda in destroying confidence caused the downturn.

Economic prosperity is all about confidence. If a political/media coalition finds the key to changing a nation's mindset they've got economic power and can pave the way to a dictator.

22 posted on 06/26/2010 10:13:09 AM PDT by Siena Dreaming
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To: shove_it

Remember that nobama’s overarching goal is destroying the US economy.

He could care less what the G20, or anybody else for that matter thinks.

He is hell bent on being the USA dictator. In order to do that he needs to drive us down. The quickest way to do that is to destroy the economy.

Look at his “major” accomplishments: taking over GM and Chrysler, nobamacare, diddling while the oil gushes, czars, doing little about illegal, criminal immigration, creating a huge deficit, etc. All designed to trash the economy.

He’s a man on a mission with a compliant Congress: destroy the USA.


23 posted on 06/26/2010 10:18:17 AM PDT by upchuck (Don't let freedom slip away. After America, there is no place to go ~ Kitty Werthmann - Google her.)
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To: Siena Dreaming
The economy is cyclical regardless of who is in the WH. There will be downturns. Bush made a mistake with his stimulus package and the Rep controlled Congress went on a spending binge. Obama has put spending on hyperdrive.

A perfect storm is developing for the US. An aging society (10,000 people retiring a day for the next 20 years), Ponzi scheme entitlement programs, immigration policies that import poverty, two wars, and out of control spending for decades have placed us in this position. Obama's policies have made them much worse.

Economic properity is much more than confidence. The numbers don't lie.

24 posted on 06/26/2010 11:01:26 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar
Economic properity is much more than confidence. The numbers don't lie.

And numbers reflect confidence, obviously. When you have huge swathes of the population dependent on the dole without the corresponding revenue you have fear, not confidence.

Yes, of course there will be downturns. However, some are much more prolonged than they should be because certain politicians GET their power when the economy is in the dumps.

I have no doubt that Pelosi & Co. (aka the MSM) lied to push the downturn down much lower than it had to go. And they keep it down now because they will not benefit if things ease. Easing would be an indication that business is hiring...in other words the private sector is gaining confidence again. They DON'T want that because the private sector is not their consituency...GOV'T is.

25 posted on 06/26/2010 11:32:56 AM PDT by Siena Dreaming
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To: Siena Dreaming
We have some very serious structural problems. The entitlement programs and debt servicing costs make up more than half the federal budget. Those costs will increase as the population ages. It is just a matter of demographics and unsustainable entitlement programs.

Add to this an immigration policy that brings in 1.2 million legal immigrants a year, most of whom are poor and uneducated, plus another 500,000 to 1 million illegals. We are bringing in 125,000 legal foreign workers A MONTH right now while 25 million Americans look for full time employment.

125,000 brand new foreign workers with work permits each month -- HERE'S THE PROOF

26 posted on 06/26/2010 2:11:43 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make.


27 posted on 06/26/2010 2:46:23 PM PDT by Siena Dreaming
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To: shove_it
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this one out. If increased government spending really does increase GDP, then why not have the government spend even more than it does? Why not increase government spending to $10 trillion a year? The same question can be applied to the minimum wage. If raising the minimum wage is good for the economy, then why not raise it to $1,000 per hour?

And thus the disconnect between academia and reality is exposed. Reality shows that increasing federal spending actually decreases GDP. Reality also shows that increasing the minimum wage increases unemployment and decreases GDP. But then the ivory tower idiots that are currently in power are blind to the lessons of actual experience.

28 posted on 06/26/2010 2:54:53 PM PDT by Hoodat (.For the weapons of our warfare are mighty in God for pulling down strongholds.)
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To: Siena Dreaming
I gathered that. My point is that the US has very serious economic problems that did not arise just because Obama is President. He has made the situation worse, but we have been headed for a fiscal train wreck for some time. We have been spending beyond our means. And the fact that by 2030 one in five Americans will be 65 or older, twice what it is now, will cause our entitlement programs, already unsustainable and representing an unfunded liability of $60 trillion over a 75 year period, to bankrupt us. And one other fact, state pension funds already represent a $3 trillion liability. Where is the money going to come from?
29 posted on 06/26/2010 3:16:22 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar
We all know that we have serious problems.

We have all been aware of the entitlement problems for years.

These problems have been exacerbated in a frightening way by this administration which has loaded us with another huge entitlement (healthcare) which the Dems and MSM have pushed mercilessly and they drove down the economy to get it.

It's the same thing that happened under FDR and prolonged the depression. Sure there were economic problems then, but those could have been alleviated by easing draconian punishments on business. You will never have an improved situation by punishing business which is the very engine to improve economies.

But socialists WANT it this way...as did FDR. They pushed hard for a much steeper downturn than was warrented in '08 to GET power and to MAKE IT WORSE.

In answer to your question...where's the money coming from? We will not have enough to pay for unsustainable entitlements. Spending cuts are going to come. I believe that the terrifying way this adminstration is running things will give the next President the political capital to make them, happen; if one thinks it's not possible one should look at Europe which is accomplishing cuts even though many said it would never happen there.

30 posted on 06/26/2010 3:36:23 PM PDT by Siena Dreaming
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To: Siena Dreaming
We all know that we have serious problems. We have all been aware of the entitlement problems for years.

And we have done nothing about it. By 2014, 45% of all Medicare expenditures will come from the General Fund. By law, 75% of the costs for Medicare Parts B and D come from the General Fund.

These problems have been exacerbated in a frightening way by this administration which has loaded us with another huge entitlement (healthcare) which the Dems and MSM have pushed mercilessly and they drove down the economy to get it.

Yep, we just added another huge entitlement program. Bush gave us Medicare Part D, Prescription Drugs, which represents an $8 trillion unfunded liability. That was passed by a Rep-controlled Congress. And Bush tried to get an amnesty passed, which would have destroyed this country with the stroke of a pen. Amnesty passed in the senate in 2006 [Hagel-Martinez], but was killed by the House. Bush tried again in 2007 with McCain-Kennedy.

In answer to your question...where's the money coming from? We will not have enough to pay for unsustainable entitlements. Spending cuts are going to come.

The spending cuts are going to have to come from the entitlement programs otherwise nothing will change. If nothing is done with the entitlement programs, they will consume over 70% of the federal budget by 2060 and that is not counting Obamacare.

The question is whether we will have the political will to make such cuts. Will seniors, government employees, and others vote for politicians who will gut their benefits? In Greece, they demonstrated against such cuts even if it meant the country would go down the tubes. We have some very hard and difficult decisions to make as a country. I don't see many politicians with the courage to make them nor do I see many Americans willing to make the sacrifices necessary. Almost half the people in the country pay no income taxes.

31 posted on 06/26/2010 4:40:07 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar
The spending cuts are going to have to come from the entitlement programs otherwise nothing will change.

We all know this.

The question is whether we will have the political will to make such cuts

Already addressed in my previous post.

32 posted on 06/26/2010 5:10:02 PM PDT by Siena Dreaming
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To: Siena Dreaming
Knowing is not doing it. And no, you didn't address the issue of whether we have the political will or not to address these problems. Nothing will be done until we have a major crisis and then there will be some very draconian measures the will have people in the streets like Greece.

In 1950 there were 16 workers for every retiree. Today there are 3.3, and by 2030 there will be two. We are leaving our children and grandchildren with a very bleak future.

33 posted on 06/26/2010 5:21:46 PM PDT by kabar
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To: shove_it
The biggest draw of Keynesian economics is handling all that money.

The government takes it (literally), pockets a little for itself, then passes it step by step on down the food chain, each and every bureaucratic step taking a little bit for itself. For administrative expenses, doncha know.

That's Keynesian trickle down. They take your money at the point of a gun and by the time they give it back to you to "stimulate the economy" it has trickled down to pennies on the dollar.

34 posted on 06/26/2010 6:40:58 PM PDT by GBA (Resistance is Constitutional!)
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To: kabar
And no, you didn't address the issue of whether we have the political will or not to address these problems

I did address it.

Re-read the last paragraph of the post I cited.

35 posted on 06/26/2010 6:41:14 PM PDT by Siena Dreaming
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To: shove_it

BM

Nothing will change.

The same Totalitarians might stop spending AS much for a little while but the same morons will vote for the same Totalitarians over and over again.


36 posted on 06/27/2010 3:47:52 PM PDT by Para-Ord.45
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