Posted on 07/14/2010 6:17:33 PM PDT by Kaslin
Writing in the New York Times in November 2003, Austan Goolsbee, then a professor at the University of Chicago, flamboyantly accused the government of "cooking" the books regarding unemployment.
"The situation has grown so dire," he said, "that we can't even tell whether the job market is recovering. The time has come to correct the official unemployment statistics to account for those left out."
Professor Goolsbee is now a top economic advisor to President Obama. Would he admit that the official jobless of 9.5% grossly underestimates the pain of job losses in America and do something to correct the situation?
Findings in recent IBD/TIPP polls suggest that now would be a good time to undertake such a project.
According to Labor Department data, the civilian labor force in June totaled 153.7 million people, 14.6 million (9.5%) of whom were unemployed. But in the latest IBD/TIPP poll conducted last week, 28.6% of respondents said at least one member of their household is unemployed and looking for work. This number for June was 27.8% and for May 28%.
When we project our household job-seekers rate and calculate the share of Americans who are unemployed and looking for work, we get a job-seeker rate of 24.1% for July for a total of 37 million Americans vs. the government's aforementioned 14.6 million.
The difference between our crude job-seeker rate of 24.1% and the Labor Department's jobless rate of 9.5% is night and day. The difference between our job-seekers (37 million) and Labor's unemployed (14.6 million) is a staggering 22.4 million. How does one account for 22 million people? Which is the reality?
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
Everybody lighten-up! nobama has promised us all that he is taking care of this. I mean...this is the Summer of Recovery (he said so). nobama knows all. nobama is great. All praise nobama.
I tend to believe those numbers are more accurate.
The underemployeed makes things look even worse.
Who is counting closed businesses, restaurants, proprietors killed by taxes and regulations???
Whatever is left will be killed by the estate tax.
Thank you for hope & chaange Husssein Oooo’bama?!
Something like the distribution of per capita household income would shed more light on this subject. Light, however, is the last thing the Bummer wants. He’s a heat man.
the question is, how much is enough for them?
Lessee, 27%? Three TIMES the official, announced, politically acceptable level?
Tell me again about how anyone can get a job if they are just "willing to lower their sights..."
Remind me who the kool-aide drinkers are...
bookmark.
Not only are those numbers probably more correct -
But the biggest problem has not hit us yet -
When the Bush Tax cuts end . . .
It will not be inflation - it will be Hyper-inflation . . .
For Everyone- jobless or not!
Kick out all illegals. Cancel unemployment benefits. Repeal obamacare. Break the unions’ backs. Throw the crooks in jail. Quit bailing out “too big to fail”. Drill baby drill.
PROBLEM SOLVED. no more unemployment.
Amazing how I just saved america from ruin in under 2 minutes. I’m smarter than all the crooks in DC combined. Where’s my nobel prize?
Good point. There are so many empty stores now.
Estate Tax, when that kicks in, people are going to get angry as hell.
Another six months and people will be buying the Kenyan mans picture just so they can spit on it every day.
MMMM, MMMM, MMMM.
The politicians of both parties have been lying to the public for years, manipulating statistics to make things look better than they are. I don't know the details, but know the method of calculating unemployment has been changed a time or two the past few decades, of course to make unemployment look better than it actually was/is.
Boy, no kidding. How complicated is that.
Or people with some funds who think there's a higher return betting against the market or bonds than laying out capital, putting up with endless regulations, and seeing any positive returns taxed away? Many prospective startups are staying on the sidelines, in my experience.
Ah my good man that is indeed scrupulously and honestly accounted for by the BLS via their infamous "Birth / Death Model". As you can see by the graph below, it quite accurately tracks month by month and year by year every factor contributing to the final employment number:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/note-to-mish-bls-added-145897-imaginary.html
See how our resilient economy has added up to 300,000 jobs in the same ten months of every single year of this near-depression? This should answer your question as to the statistical accuracy of the unemployment report in this regard.
Smoke a mirrors campaign to make us all believe that we are on the upswing and the economy is getting better. All the rigs are leaving the gulf the zero regime has gotten thier wish, thousands of peope will be unemployed because these criminals deliberatley sabotaged an industry and committed thousands to be dependent on the government. Today they made an announcement that they have created or saved 3 million jobs, bobble head joe confirmed this. “pick a number, any number” they lie better than a cheap filthy rug
Sorry, I'm not buying it. Obama hasn't done enough to get the blame. Why are you blaming the jockey who standing at the door with a ring in his hand? Obama is a horse holder, who thinks that he's someone because he just got a fresh coat of paint.
It's 'go-along to get-along' RINOS, cowboy Wallstreeters who can't think farther than the next quarter's bottom line, Harvard MBAs who think they are royalty, super "progressives" who substitute wishful thinking for economic reality.
It's a perfect storm of catastrophic, short sighted decisions. No one or two would bring down the Potemkin Village of fiat money, overseas production, punitive taxes to fund social engineering. But when they all collide...
http://www.shadowstats.com/
Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting.
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