Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Real Joblessness Grimmer Than Gov't Stats
IBD Editorials ^ | July 14, 2010 | RAGHAVAN MAYUR

Posted on 07/14/2010 6:17:33 PM PDT by Kaslin

Writing in the New York Times in November 2003, Austan Goolsbee, then a professor at the University of Chicago, flamboyantly accused the government of "cooking" the books regarding unemployment.

"The situation has grown so dire," he said, "that we can't even tell whether the job market is recovering. The time has come to correct the official unemployment statistics to account for those left out."

Professor Goolsbee is now a top economic advisor to President Obama. Would he admit that the official jobless of 9.5% grossly underestimates the pain of job losses in America and do something to correct the situation?

Findings in recent IBD/TIPP polls suggest that now would be a good time to undertake such a project.

According to Labor Department data, the civilian labor force in June totaled 153.7 million people, 14.6 million (9.5%) of whom were unemployed. But in the latest IBD/TIPP poll conducted last week, 28.6% of respondents said at least one member of their household is unemployed and looking for work. This number for June was 27.8% and for May 28%.

When we project our household job-seekers rate and calculate the share of Americans who are unemployed and looking for work, we get a job-seeker rate of 24.1% for July for a total of 37 million Americans vs. the government's aforementioned 14.6 million.

The difference between our crude job-seeker rate of 24.1% and the Labor Department's jobless rate of 9.5% is night and day. The difference between our job-seekers (37 million) and Labor's unemployed (14.6 million) is a staggering 22.4 million. How does one account for 22 million people? Which is the reality?

(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-28 next last

1 posted on 07/14/2010 6:17:34 PM PDT by Kaslin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

Everybody lighten-up! nobama has promised us all that he is taking care of this. I mean...this is the Summer of Recovery (he said so). nobama knows all. nobama is great. All praise nobama.


2 posted on 07/14/2010 6:20:09 PM PDT by hal ogen
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

I tend to believe those numbers are more accurate.

The underemployeed makes things look even worse.


3 posted on 07/14/2010 6:20:46 PM PDT by boycott (CAL)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

Who is counting closed businesses, restaurants, proprietors killed by taxes and regulations???

Whatever is left will be killed by the estate tax.

Thank you for hope & chaange Husssein Oooo’bama?!


4 posted on 07/14/2010 6:23:03 PM PDT by Leo Carpathian (fffffFRrrreeeeepppeeee-ssed!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

Something like the distribution of per capita household income would shed more light on this subject. Light, however, is the last thing the Bummer wants. He’s a heat man.


5 posted on 07/14/2010 6:23:10 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Leo Carpathian

the question is, how much is enough for them?


6 posted on 07/14/2010 6:25:27 PM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin
Well, wadda ya know! Someone finally admitted that there is an elephant in the room!

Lessee, 27%? Three TIMES the official, announced, politically acceptable level?

Tell me again about how anyone can get a job if they are just "willing to lower their sights..."

Remind me who the kool-aide drinkers are...

7 posted on 07/14/2010 6:29:58 PM PDT by jonascord (We've got the Constitution to protect us. Why should we worry?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

bookmark.


8 posted on 07/14/2010 6:32:41 PM PDT by IrishCatholic (No local Communist or Socialist Party Chapter? Join the Democrats, it's the same thing!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: boycott; All

Not only are those numbers probably more correct -

But the biggest problem has not hit us yet -

When the Bush Tax cuts end . . .

It will not be inflation - it will be Hyper-inflation . . .

For Everyone- jobless or not!


9 posted on 07/14/2010 6:33:09 PM PDT by Anita1 ("Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

Kick out all illegals. Cancel unemployment benefits. Repeal obamacare. Break the unions’ backs. Throw the crooks in jail. Quit bailing out “too big to fail”. Drill baby drill.

PROBLEM SOLVED. no more unemployment.

Amazing how I just saved america from ruin in under 2 minutes. I’m smarter than all the crooks in DC combined. Where’s my nobel prize?


10 posted on 07/14/2010 6:34:39 PM PDT by mamelukesabre (Si Vis Pacem Para Bellum (If you want peace prepare for war))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Leo Carpathian

Good point. There are so many empty stores now.

Estate Tax, when that kicks in, people are going to get angry as hell.

Another six months and people will be buying the Kenyan mans picture just so they can spit on it every day.

MMMM, MMMM, MMMM.


11 posted on 07/14/2010 6:35:39 PM PDT by PA-RIVER
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin
Gee, I kind of see a pattern."


12 posted on 07/14/2010 6:36:23 PM PDT by rlmorel (We are traveling "The Road to Serfdom".)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin
I expect that the real unemployment numbers are far worse, and that they have been for years. Several years back, when the reported unemployment was still low, there was an article in the New York Times saying that 2 - 3 million, mostly aged 40+ workers who had been downsized or their jobs outsourced, and had simply left the workforce. Many were professionals and others who'd had good jobs and 401(k) or other retirement benefits. They'd simply been unable to find remotely comparable work, and had reduced their cost of living as much as possible and were living on savings and possibly 401(k)s.

The politicians of both parties have been lying to the public for years, manipulating statistics to make things look better than they are. I don't know the details, but know the method of calculating unemployment has been changed a time or two the past few decades, of course to make unemployment look better than it actually was/is.

13 posted on 07/14/2010 6:36:47 PM PDT by Will88
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mamelukesabre

Boy, no kidding. How complicated is that.


14 posted on 07/14/2010 6:37:26 PM PDT by rlmorel (We are traveling "The Road to Serfdom".)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Leo Carpathian
Who is counting closed businesses, restaurants, proprietors killed by taxes and regulations???

Or people with some funds who think there's a higher return betting against the market or bonds than laying out capital, putting up with endless regulations, and seeing any positive returns taxed away? Many prospective startups are staying on the sidelines, in my experience.

15 posted on 07/14/2010 6:39:01 PM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin
U-6 is the closest to how unemployment was counted during the 1930s.


16 posted on 07/14/2010 6:41:00 PM PDT by Yo-Yo (Is the /sarc tag really necessary?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Leo Carpathian
Who is counting closed businesses, restaurants, proprietors killed by taxes and regulations???

Ah my good man that is indeed scrupulously and honestly accounted for by the BLS via their infamous "Birth / Death Model". As you can see by the graph below, it quite accurately tracks month by month and year by year every factor contributing to the final employment number:

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/note-to-mish-bls-added-145897-imaginary.html

See how our resilient economy has added up to 300,000 jobs in the same ten months of every single year of this near-depression? This should answer your question as to the statistical accuracy of the unemployment report in this regard.

17 posted on 07/14/2010 6:48:45 PM PDT by jiggyboy (Ten per cent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

Smoke a mirrors campaign to make us all believe that we are on the upswing and the economy is getting better. All the rigs are leaving the gulf the zero regime has gotten thier wish, thousands of peope will be unemployed because these criminals deliberatley sabotaged an industry and committed thousands to be dependent on the government. Today they made an announcement that they have created or saved 3 million jobs, bobble head joe confirmed this. “pick a number, any number” they lie better than a cheap filthy rug


18 posted on 07/14/2010 6:49:51 PM PDT by ronnie raygun (I'D RATHER BE TRIED BY 12 THAN CARRIED BY 6)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Leo Carpathian
"Thank you for hope & chaange Husssein Oooo’bama?!

Sorry, I'm not buying it. Obama hasn't done enough to get the blame. Why are you blaming the jockey who standing at the door with a ring in his hand? Obama is a horse holder, who thinks that he's someone because he just got a fresh coat of paint.

It's 'go-along to get-along' RINOS, cowboy Wallstreeters who can't think farther than the next quarter's bottom line, Harvard MBAs who think they are royalty, super "progressives" who substitute wishful thinking for economic reality.

It's a perfect storm of catastrophic, short sighted decisions. No one or two would bring down the Potemkin Village of fiat money, overseas production, punitive taxes to fund social engineering. But when they all collide...

19 posted on 07/14/2010 6:52:57 PM PDT by jonascord (We've got the Constitution to protect us. Why should we worry?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: jiggyboy

http://www.shadowstats.com/
Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting.


20 posted on 07/14/2010 6:58:05 PM PDT by pwatson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-28 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson