Posted on 08/21/2010 7:12:34 AM PDT by Libloather
Dems Face Doom in House
By Colin Clark
Friday, August 20th, 2010 12:10 pm
Washington’s most respected election analyst, Charlie Cook, is now calling the House for the Republicans. And he’s predicting not just a close race, which had been the call of most analysts until now, but is predicting a so-called “wave” election, one where the party in power is swept away. Cook spoke with the Wall Street Journal.
Before GOP tribalists begin crowing and dancing the sacred dance of victory, Cook cautions that he does not think the GOP is likely to win the Senate. And, with all respect to my many friends in the House, the Senate is what really matters when the other party holds the White House. Why? Every Senator has the enormous power to just say no — such as putting holds on nominations or using procedural means to gum up the works or — and control of the Senate would give the Republicans the ability to push through legislation they might not be able to otherwise. Not to mention the symbolic power of a GOP victory in both houses.
Given all that, let’s consider what the Republicans are likely to focus on should they gain the bully pulpit of controlling the House Armed Services and House appropriations defense bodies. top of the list will be protecting defense spending from what some GOP leaders believe is an overeager Robert Gates and a left-leaning Democratic Party eager to strip defense money and spend it on social programs.
The other area likely to receive increased attention is oversight of Afghan strategy. Some senior GOP leaders have worried about the rules of engagement, which they think were foisted on Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the former commander, by the White House. When Gen. David Petraeus issued his new rules of engagement in late July they were, arguably, even tougher in restricting the use of force. If they hear comments from troops that they are confused by the new ROEs or feel overly restricted by them, expect Republicans to hammer away at this.
But it’s early days yet. Most aides are on vacation and most lawmakers are on the hustings or fund raising. Have a look at the Defend America statement House GOP leaders put out earlier this year for some insight on what they will bring to the election discussion on defense issues. Hopefully, GOP views will become sharper the closer we get to the elections.
I'll be doing the happy dance in some local pub on election night.
In the immortal words of Winston “The Wolf”:
“Well, let’s not start s*ing each other’s *s quite yet.”
We’ve got a lot of work to do. Number one on the list is combating complacency. Number two is coming up with a plan for combating voter fraud.
On the Senate side, the key races which are toss-ups are CA, WA, WI, CO and FL. If the Republicans take all of those, they win the Senate. They also have an outside chance to take Connecticut.
This has to be a slog and then a strong push right to the end. The 'Rats aren't going to give up. If anything, like any cornered rat, they're going to get meaner and nastier. We have to keep pounding them and presenting a positive response on issues that are important to the public: restraining spending, stimulating creation of private-sector jobs, securing the border, dealing effectively with illegal immigration, standing against terrorists here and abroad. These are winning issues with the electorate, and we have to capture them and frame the debate in a manner favorable to our candidates. Keep the 'Rats off balance and on the defensive.
Even if they do not win the Senate (this year) they will gain seats and with a close Senate and a GOP House....the muslim’s rule will be greatly weakened.
I am really looking forward to watching Stretch pass that gavel to someone else.
I wouldn’t write off the Senate just yet. The American people went beyond rage several months ago. The American people realize we have enemies within. In order to preserve our country, in order to preserve our security, in order to preserve our economy, in order to preserve our future for our children and grandchildren, we “must” clean out all these corrupt, power-hungry Elitists out of office.
In my opinion, we must call for investigations, exposure, and prosecution of every member of Congress who sold their corrupt souls for power at the expense of their country. Dig their dirt and let them spend the rest of their lives in shame and dishonor. Political business (treachery) as usual must be over.
To quote John Lennon or whichever maggot infested Beatle came up with it:
Let it be!
If the republicans take over and I hear one of them say “We need to move forward and not look backwards”, I’ll puke. And right after I puke I’ll donate to a third party.
Back in ‘94, I happened to be at the home of a local lib the morning after the election. I didn’t speak to him but to a contractor who was doing some work for him. The contractor said that poor old Warren was in full fledged mourning for the end of the world. LMAO!
The old b@stard is still alive. Maybe this election will put him totally over the edge.
investigate the so called press too for their blatant disregard for their profession, their lies, their bias and them covering for their messiah like love sick puppies .
Also tell the truth about this homocon crap who really are the log cabins and have changed their name since they were busted for being homosexuals but Dems too.
Certainly investigate the justice dept and them going after the sheriff, not going after black racists and going after AZ.
The budget situation is now so dire that we may not have a more politic alternative to decimating our Armed Forces even as terrorists invade our country and attack our people. Even then, we may and indeed likely will lack the political fortitude to constrain Medicare and Social Security, the largest portions of the federal budget. The Congress, if heavily Republican, may constrain the growth of non-defense discretionary spending, a rather small category, and even decline to pass any more bailouts and recession-stimulus, an explosively growing category. But tremendous cuts to defense in a time of war—war on our shores—seem inevitable, primarily because the President will sign bills so to do.
To overcome the Presidential veto, we need TWO-THIRDS in BOTH houses of Congress. That’s mathematically impossible. Of course, the Republicans theoretically could take 400 or so seats in the House, but most Democrats will face only token opposition (or in some cases, no opposition whatsoever).
Right now, due to various special elections coincident with the 2010 general election, the Democrats have 6 retiring Senators, Arlen Specter, and 12 Senators running for reelection. That’s a total of 19. If the Republicans can capture all 19 seats (and successfully defend all 18 Senate seats they now hold), then the Republicans gain the narrowest of majorities in the Senate, 60-38-2, but that includes notorious RINOs who likely even then still would side with liberal Democrats on many key votes. With 60 votes, however, Republicans can overcome Democrat filibusters and move their agenda through the Senate (unless President Obama vetoes them).
To gain a two-thirds majority, Republicans must capture 7 additional seats; the Senate election in 2012 features more Democrats for reelection (19-10-4), plus Hillary Clinton, Robert C. Byrd, Joseph I. Lieberman, and Bernard Sanders.
Not as long as all spending bills originate in the House. Republicans will have a lot of Obama-caused damage to clean up, but priority number one is to restore fiscal sanity before the country is swept into ruin. The House must come first. In 2012, hopefully the rest will follow.
It’s time to investigate Center for American Progress, expose them, shut them down and maybe throw them in jail for High Treason.
Short and sweet. She is defining herself before Blumenthal can start up the only things he has: McMahon has MONEY and the WWE.
I agree.
Well, before we start rejoicing, we’ve got to get it done. Crowing that we’re going to win is a good way to get overconfident and blow the whole thing. Or what was Ross Perot all about?
A wave is definitely building, and it’s a angry Constitutionalist wave. This is not what Obama & Company promised and there is a feeling of betrayal. The ‘Rat Party knows a wave is building, unlike in 1994, and will try to protect their candidates with cash walls.
I’m hoping the Pubbies take at least one chamber and hopefully both. Then I’m hoping ot see a whole bunch of congressional investigations of obammy and his czar buttheads.
And they all thought Dick Nixon was a crook!
Dead on!
Getting Clinton elected ... twice.
Those who have committed high treason must be tried and then executed.
Ummmm, without huge majorities in Congress there is no way to override a POTUS veto.....
Holding the House means you can investigate the hell out of the Executive branch as well as hold up any spending you choose.
I just wonder how complacent this Democrat pollster wants Conservative folks to get in advance of the November elections..? I can’t help but consider that possibility...
I’ve been a pessimist on purpose consistently heading into this coming election — and I don’t see a reason to change now. there are just too many “signs” to make me think “optimistically.” Why are is the Regime charging full steam ahead, regardless of the polls? Why is VP Biden predicting confidently they will keep the Congress in November? Mindless hubris? Overweaning arrogance? Or do they know something we don’t?
Too many things have happened in the last 18 months for me to dismiss the probability that strings will be pulled, that “the fix is in” for this November’s elections. The evidence is there that voter fraud, ACORN, SEIU, the New Black Panther Party voter intimidation and illegal immigrant voter fraud have all had pretty successful trial runs in the last election. Why should we believe it won’t happen in multiple locations in these elections? What gives us any confidence that the Republicans — or ANY Civil authorities (outside Maricopa County, Arizona) are prepared to deal with it?
I’ve said all along that the Republican’s will pick up between 30-38 House seats (they need 39 to take the House) and 6-7 Senate seats (they need 10 Senate seats to take the Senate). Even if they take the House, that will mean little — and the Moderate Republicans [RINO’s] will swing to compromise with the Obamunists to be a part of the “winning team,” because that’s what they do, that’s who they are. Were they to win BOTH Houses, I’m not sure the RINO’s wouldn’t do the SAME THING with Obama — but I don’t think that will happen.
I just don't think there's any historical support for your thesis. The macaca thing was a single race in a much different environment. We aren't going to have 100s of such incidents. Martha Coakley is probably a better example of thinking you have it in the bag. But that's just because she failed to see the monster tsunami that is still bearing down on her party.
Apart from that, reaching the point where everybody expects an election to go a certain way (like in 2008) is the best way to ensure that it does. Many in the squishy middle like to have voted for the winner. And demoralization on the expected loser's side is a much bigger obstacle to turnout than excitement on the expected winner's side.
Predictions of big victories from guys like Cook help the cause in a number of ways. One of those ways is to help create unforced errors on the part of desperate Dems, as the ridiculous and completely ineffictive anti Bush video they released this week shows.
Wave elections are cultural phenomena. Ride the wave and stop fretting. Even if the optimism is overblown, your worrying an negativism won't create a single vote for the good guys.
I doubt only WI.
Winning just the House and not the Senate may be a real blessing. If the GOP were to win both Houses, I believe they’d have a real chance to get the economy turning in the right direction. Yet, Obama and the MSM would get all the credit, thus an easy re-election in 2012.
However, with only control of the House, they can effectively stop much of Obama’s agenda. They won’t be able to pass tax cuts since the Dems will control the Senate, so that means a couple more years of a tough economy. But it will give us a shot in 2012 to take both Houses of Congress and the WH.
I never, EVER root against America. I want this country to flourish, no matter who is in the WH. But this time I think I can wait it out. Obama is a disaster and has to go. If the economy gets revved up, the American sheeple will once again become complacent and our Dear Leader will be able to continue with his anti-American agenda.
That's just silly beyond all description. Name one time ever in the history of history that politician predicted defeat for his side.
And the voter fraud techniques employed by dems only work on the margins in very close races. Like Hewitt says, if it's not close they can't cheat. It is true that the left is methodically importing voters that may, in time overwhelm conservatism and turn this country into a socialist paradise. That is truly something to be concerned about. But that day isn't here yet.
Acorn is in disarray. Nobody's buying Obama commemorative plates at Walgreens anymore, and are embarrassed that they ever did. The union turnout machine really can't count on the people their busing to the polls voting the way they're told. The sentiment of wide swath of a motivated electorate is firmly opposed to the dems. There are some things electoral dirty tricks and machine politics just can't over come; such a the country getting a good look at your president and your party not liking what it sees.
Normally I reject the losing is a winning strategy thing you are positing. But in this narrow instance you may have a point. The dems have a huge number of seats to defend in 2012, which will be all the harder if they maintain control this time around and are still to blame for things. So it's likely that control will flip in 2012 anyway if Obama continues to be a complete fool, which he of course will.
We just have to hope there are no more court vacancies in the next two years. Of course with the Graham and the Maine harpies around, it seems he can nominate and confirm whoever he wants anyway.
That’s just silly beyond all description. Name one time ever in the history of history that politician predicted defeat for his side.
And the voter fraud techniques employed by dems only work on the margins in very close races. Like Hewitt says, if it’s not close they can’t cheat. It is true that the left is methodically importing voters that may, in time overwhelm conservatism and turn this country into a socialist paradise. That is truly something to be concerned about. But that day isn’t here yet.
Acorn is in disarray. Nobody’s buying Obama commemorative plates at Walgreens anymore, and are embarrassed that they ever did. The union turnout machine really can’t count on the people their busing to the polls voting the way they’re told. The sentiment of wide swath of a motivated electorate is firmly opposed to the dems. There are some things electoral dirty tricks and machine politics just can’t over come; such a the country getting a good look at your president and your party not liking what it sees.
From your keyboard to God’s — er, ears? Whatever.
I’ll believe it when I see it. I’ve found the “dependent class” amazingly dedicated to voting, and extraordinarily loyal to the Progressive Statists, NOT Conservatives, no matter the circumstances. If that trend is reversed, wonderful. If more Conservatives show up. great. I just don’t see enough of a counter-wave to shift the balance that much. I truly hope I’m wrong — and you’re right.
If you ARE right, then the surge can’t END at the ballot box, it will need to be sustained for the next 4-6 years at least. A continual, “feet-to-the-fire” push for the Conservative and the NEXT President, whoever that may be to return us to the CONSTITUTION, to FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY, to a Federal Government that serves the States and the People and doesn’t DICTATE — that is LIMITED. And that is NEVER allowed to get out of control again.
A tall order? Yup — darn near impossible. It’s the only thing that will save the country short of another civil war.
“A wave is definitely building, and it’s a angry Constitutionalist wave.”
The party that rides this wave to victory and doesn’t live up to it’s responsibility will be sucked up in the backwash and doomed for eternity.
I don’t think the voters that I’ve talked to are going to put up with a new house and Mitch and his bunch operating like the last time they were in control. They can not favor WS and corporate interests or party loyalty over the taxpayer.
They should acknowledge that you’re never to big to fail even if you donated to their campaign.
I agree with what you say but even if the GOP only wins control of the House that will be a major victory because the House ultimately controls the purse. It can defund ObamaCare, etc. Being the “party of no” is great when it comes to disappropriating a socialist agenda. And even without a complete majority in the Senate the GOP can have control over the filibuster.
We have to campain like we are 10 points down all the way to election day. The Republicans have to give voters a reason to vote for them, other than I'm not a Democrat.
Actually-no.
The real power is in the House, which controls the MONEY.
If 'we need to work together' is how they begin, they are done as a political party.
With all the optimism, and I mean everywhere, whey can't I get caught up in it? My sense of dread is worse now than in 2008 when, even if the good guys won the White House we still lost.
I think if we don't sweep this year, the nation is finished.
If the Republicans win only the House but have true leaders, they can influence policy for real or shut everytrhing down. Power is where you find it with a leader willing to wield it.
I am concerned about the 2-1 fund-raising edge the 'Rats have at this point. True, they've got Oscumbum out there raising money and one of the few things he does well is pull in the bucks for the 'Rats. The 'Pubs are really going to have to bust hump over the next month or so and try to close the gap.
I like your idea on the Center for American Progress. No one has really spoken up about their JournoList involvment, but I recall reading a year or so ago how involved they were in getting out the message to like minded ‘journalists’ AND the article stated the CAP started the day with a call from the WH. CAP has been the de facto propaganda arm that kept the WH officially ‘removed’ from JournoList participation.
Love to see them take both...but if they take the House, Issa can let loose his hounds of hell on the crooked shenanigans. Dems who didn’t loose might end up wishing they did.
Loads of muck to clean out of the Augean Stable.
Much worse than that. CAP *is* the WH, and John Podesta is our de facto president. It must really frost John when Precious One goes off message.
At some point, if it becomes apparent that keeping the House is not going to happen, will Democrats shift focus to saving their Senate advantage and if that is the case, what signs would we see to indicate that?
“Much worse than that. CAP *is* the WH, and John Podesta is our de facto president. It must really frost John when Precious One goes off message.”
Excellent point. And Soros is the Prime Minister...
In my opinion, we must call for investigations, exposure, and prosecution of every member of Congress who sold their corrupt souls for power at the expense of their country.
Amen, sister.
I'd very much like to see them all taken down in a legal and orderly fashion, but one way or another, they will fall.
The jig is up, and The People are growing more restless and angry by the day. If the traitorous elites had any sense, they'd read the handwriting on the wall and start turning themselves in. If they wait for a rebellion to explode, they're going to experience even harsher justice.
Not too many folks use the term ether nor do many know what it means.
Folks were too stupid to understand the void of space so they came up with a name to use as a placeholder for the vacume,”ether”.
“Not too many folks use the term ether nor do many know what it means.”
I recall the Herculean term vividly when uttered by Biden. Interesting exchange with McCain around the same time.
It’s deep... Are the birds next?
Ahhh. From my bio page. Thought you were somehow obliquely referring to the Augean Stables!
That’s a good question. The ‘Rats have a very good ground operation and big bucks, so I wouldn’t write them off yet.
One thing to look for is where the party’s resources are being spent and where the party and its auxiliaries are running the most ads. There are some states where hot Senate races and hot House races coincide, so one must keep that in mind.
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