Skip to comments.Will tomorrow be the day the Plunge Protection Team loses control of the Dow?
Posted on 08/25/2010 2:18:06 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
They just barely managed to pump it up over 10,000 today.
10,000 is the psychological tipping point.
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I watched it off and on today. We knew they would keep it above 10000. Let’s see how long they can do that.
Sure would be nice if we had some REAL financial reporters in NY to actually watch out for the interests of American citizens.
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Is there really a Plunge Protection Team?
I know little to nothing about the markets, but I think if it goes below 10K, it will plunge initially, and continue to grind downward, looking for a bottom.
This is a toilet bowl shaped “recovery”. lol
As a market analyst/trader, here’s my prediction: It falls below 10k tomorrow or Friday. Then rises back above. Then falls below 10k again in September. After that, it probably won’t be back above 10k until early 2011, at the earliest. Of course, it could spend many years below 10k. We’ll see.
The Working Group on Financial Markets (also, President's Working Group on Financial Markets, the Working Group, and colloquially the Plunge Protection Team) was created by Executive Order 12631, signed on March 18, 1988 by United States President Ronald Reagan.
And of course you mean no recovery at all.
The Depression was a general lack of confidence wasn’t it? Isn’t that what we have now? Don’t we just see the response to a president who keeps beating down the system, creating instability and adding more and more threats to investment?
Time to sell short?
Perhaps you can answer a question I've wondered about. Like the OP I've noticed that it looks like someone has been trying to manipulate the market to get it above 10k and keep it there. When it was below there wasn't sufficient good news to drive buyers to the market, at least not that I saw. If that is correct, what mechanism are they using to prop it up? Obviously Soros has enough money to play the market that way, but he seems to high profile and he doesn't strike me as the type to risk his money that way just to make Obama look good.
Where does one put retirement money?
10,000 isn’t any tipping point to me. Just a couple of years ago it closed around 7500 or so. It’s gone below 10000 since then. Big deal.
As for PPT, I think that’s BS too. The pros are making money off of volatility these days. They like big drops. They hype the downside, people freak and sell, the pros buy. Things calm down, people buy back in, the pros start hyping the negative again,and it repeats. It’s the only way for them to make money in this sort of economy.
Jobs report tomorrow at 8:30 ... all bets off.
There used to be.
Now it's just operating out in the open with left-over TARP funds as "Goldman Sachs and friends".
My prediction is that when the GOP takes the House in November the DOW will go above 11,000 by next spring. Of course, I think I will win the lottery too.
That’s an interesting chart you posted. The volume at the end of each of the last five days indicates the PPT have been busy little beavers lately.
Sort of a smoking gun, isn't it?
Book recommendation: Trading In The Zone
I contemplated it back in 2008 when I started to Go Galt.
Some went into the house.
Some went in to the house.
The rest is invested in me, my work, my productivity.
“Is there really a Plunge Protection Team?”
What say you blam? ;-)
Except for the one detail that no one pays attention to the DOW other than retail investors. The S&P 500 is the barometer institutional players follow for a broad based index. The DOW is only 30 companies after all.
Where does one put retirement money?
If you aren’t certain and don’t follow the markets religiously I would stay in cash (and maybe some precious metals , especially junk silver by the bag) and wait (we’re talking years) for a deal in a stock related to some new technology or I would buy real estate. I have a farm in a foreign country , the entire country is pretty much “off the grid”.
Collectibles from the 1930’s are worth a fortune, and I would expect the same thing to happen again ,, it won’t help you but it might help your grandkids.. just as a few pieces of glassware that were bought at Woolworths in the 30’s will pay for a year of college today I would expect high quality but relatively inexpensive goods from the next 10 years will be collectible.. people collect things in their adult years that they couldn’t afford when they were young.. Just think of that $200 ‘64 GTO you didn’t buy in 1972 that became collectible....
What's "retirement money"? :)
20% in Insured annuities is what I tell my clients
That being said, the only way to influence any market is to buy or sell stuff in that market. Once a participant buys, the influence he has on market price diminishes rapidly as time goes by, unless he buys more. And keeps doing it. The market price is whatever price at which the last trade executed, even if it's only 1 share. So the PPT could buy 1 billion shares of IBM @ $100/share, but if the next trade (of only 1 share) is at $90, then they've wasted their money. And eventully they have to sell the shares they bought—driving down the price.
Long-term manipulation of the broad market can't be done. The sums of money involved could NOT be hidden.
In short-term T-bills, Swiss Francs, Australian dollars and gold. Right now, worry about the return OF your capital, not the return ON your capital.
I think a solidly negative (double dip) number, will trigger a selloff to 8000-8500.
I think it would then trail lower, except that the Dems will lose a majority in November. This won't lead to a rebound, but I think it will create a floor.
I've been out of the market (except for Gold) since July 2008. I think I'll start getting back in at around 8500 depending on market momentum.
Yep...PPT...Pick Pocket Team
I saw this the night and day after the 2008 election. Anyone with money or a business went Galt, laid people off and hunkered down. No one has any confidence unless they are a bankruptcy attorney or Obama govt union scum.
We saw yesterday how TV and the media can manipulate things with McCain winning. The public are drooling idiots who watch TV and ALL ALL of TV including Fox Saudia support The Imam and Islam.
The people own small and medium-sized businesses are not hiring anyone or doing anything until he is gone.
Post-UAW thuggery against bondholders - who would build a factory in America? Capitalists want private property rights to avoid having their capital stolen. We are like a third world country now in that area.
Plausible—regardless of how the next election turns out. It's also plausible that Prechter is right, and the Dow will bottom around 400!
That's based solely on analysis of the charts, by the way, not on political considerations. Caveat: Markets are probabilistic, not deterministic. Market analysis can tell you what the probability gradients are, but not what "must" happen.
That is my opinion as well, and why I didn't think Soros would throw away that much money just to prop up the market to make dems look better. The cost would be prohibitive in the long run, and very expensive in the short.
The sums of money involved could NOT be hidden.
so then people really are being stupid enough to buy in this market? It just seems people would look for better shelters and wait till the waters calm...which may be a couple of years at the rate the dems are going.
Hey - what are those HUGE volume spikes at the end of each day there? That has to be the PPT coming in with buy orders to stop any major drop.
PPT, protecting us from the ravages of plungers or from being ravaged by one.. or something.
Also, they moonlight as a rap band.
Often, “buying” is actually just bears covering (closing out) their short positions. Conversely, “selling” is often just bulls covering their long positions.
No. There is a Working Group on Financial Markets.
I have never seen anything like that. I know what I am looking at but never saw huge volume spikes at the close for 5 days in a row. Each day ends placidly or just moderately down (100 points or less on the Dow).
Volume has been pretty light lately.
If I saw a significant down day on significant volume I would worry more.
Exactly! Because every time it drops below 10,000, it always goes to zero. LOL!
That was last week.
Could that lady put some of her money in CD in foreign currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollar plus Swiss Franc?
There is a bank in St. Louis that had them.
Everbank.com has world and multi currency CDs. The 3 month CDs on Austrialian dollar and Brazilian Real look pretty good. A$ is 3.03% and Brazilain Real is 6.14%
They also have a currency basket CD. The best appears to be 25% A$, 25% B Real, 25% C$ and 25% Norwegian Krone is 2.3%.
Oh wow, your post has just made me sit up. I have a 1966 Mustang sitting in my garage. It hasn’t moved for 20 years.
In gold. Physical gold in your own control outside of a bank.
I was thinking this AM that the PPT is just trying to keep the market in an orderly descent. With light summer volumes it isn’t hard, but the mutual funds are all selling as investors leave the funds. The longer term outlook is down and bonds aren’t good option now that they have run up. Time to sit in cash..and wait.
That's like saying the existence of the Mississippi river is BS.
The PPT exists, there is no denial of it. The principles have testified about it in Congress. They keep no minutes of their meetings, so there is nothing to discover with FOIA requests.
Here is their most recent public statement:
October 6, 2008
Statement by the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets
Washington, DC-- The President's Working Group on Financial Markets issued the following statement today:
Conditions in U.S. and global financial markets remain extremely strained. The President's Working Group on Financial Markets (PWG) is working with market participants and regulators globally to address the current challenges and restore confidence and stability to financial markets around the world.
With the passage of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA), Congress has granted important new authorities to the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and the FDIC. These new authorities will be employed in conjunction with existing authorities to restore market confidence by strengthening the balance sheets of financial intermediaries and improving overall market functioning.
The diversity of institutions and markets under stress, and the magnitude and complexity of the adjustment underway, requires that the tools available to policymakers, regulators and supervisors be used in forceful and coordinated ways across regulatory and supervisory agencies in the United States and throughout the world. This will involve moving with substantial force on a number of fronts. These broad initiatives are outlined below.
Strengthening Financial Institutions
The Treasury Department will move rapidly to implement the new authorities in EESA to help strengthen financial institutions that are struggling with troubled assets and/or need to raise capital. It will be done in a transparent and methodical fashion. In the coming days, Treasury will work with the Federal Reserve and other financial regulators to develop strategies that deploy these tools to maximize their effectiveness in strengthening the financial system while protecting the taxpayers' interests.
The new legislation adds broad, flexible authorities to allow Treasury to buy troubled assets and provide guarantees, and address capital raising. The new legislation also enables Treasury to directly strengthen the balance sheet of individual institutions. These authorities allow Treasury to act to remove some of the uncertainty regarding financial strength, and provide financial institutions with greater operating flexibility and enhance their ability to raise additional capital in the private marketplace.
FDIC Stand-alone Assistance
The FDIC has broad powers to protect depositors and mitigate instability in our banking system. In addition to the coverage that it provides to insured deposits, the FDIC has the ability to use its insurance fund and its substantial lines of credit with the Treasury to address the risk to the financial system posed by the possible failure of a bank.
As the regulatory community confronted the risks posed by a potential failure of Wachovia Corporation, the Board of the FDIC, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and the Secretary of the Treasury in consultation with the President determined that they should invoke the systemic risk exception to the traditional bank resolution process.
We will work together in the future where similar approaches are necessary for the stability of the financial system.
When systemic risk determinations are necessary and appropriate in the future, the FDIC will use its authority and its resources, on an open or closed-bank basis, to protect depositors, guarantee liabilities, facilitate orderly wind downs, mergers, or adopt other stabilizing measures.
Increasing Liquidity to Financial Markets
With regard to liquidity, the Federal Reserve has introduced a series of innovative facilities and policies to enhance liquidity in our markets. These include the Term Auction Facility, Primary Dealer Credit Facility, Term Securities Lending Facility, and Currency swaps.
The Federal Reserve will continue to take a leadership role with respect to liquidity in our markets. It is committed to using all of the tools at its disposal to provide the increased liquidity that is now required for the effective functioning of financial markets. In this regard, the authority to pay interest on reserves that was provided by EESA is essential, because it allows the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet as necessary to support financial stability while conducting a monetary policy that promotes the Federal Reserve's macroeconomic objectives of maximum employment and stable prices.
The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department are consulting with market participants on ways to provide additional support for term unsecured funding markets.
Cash / Money Markets
Bank deposits and money markets funds play an important role in the savings and investing of Americans. These savings and investment vehicles are critical to investor confidence. They also provide funds for financing activity that is so critically important to our credit markets.
Last month, the Treasury Department announced a temporary guarantee program for money market mutual funds. That program began operations last Monday. This action was complemented by the Federal Reserve providing additional liquidity to money market mutual funds with their Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) Money Market Mutual Fund (MMMF) Liquidity Facility (AMLF) program, which has brought liquidity to the ABCP market. Today, the Federal Reserve is taking additional actions to enhance the flexibility of bank holding companies to provide support to their bank sponsored funds.
In addition, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the FASB issued a clarification regarding the valuation of assets, including commercial paper, during such periods of market stress.
In addition, the recent legislation temporarily increases the amount that the FDIC insures in bank and thrift deposits from $100,000 to $250,000. The legislation also increases the FDIC's ability to borrow from the Treasury if needed.
Collectively these actions should enhance market stability and investor confidence in such funds
We are committed to seeing the housing GSEs serve their public purpose of providing stability, liquidity, and affordability to the housing market. The Federal Home Loan Bank System continues to be an important source of liquidity to the banking system in support of housing finance. To provide critical additional funding to our mortgage markets, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are increasing their purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
FHFA has directed the two companies to implement such a purchase program immediately. We also expect each company to continue to increase its direct support to the mortgage market through their ongoing securitization activities.
Treasury too has established a backstop secured credit facility for the housing GSEs. In addition, to increase the availability of capital for new home loans, Treasury expanded the agency MBS purchase program we announced in September. This will complement the capital provided by the GSEs and will help facilitate mortgage availability and affordability.
Confidence is also enhanced by vigorous law enforcement so that those who invest know there is someone who is looking out for them. The SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) bring hundreds of cases every year directed at protecting investors. This past fiscal year the SEC returned approximately $1 billion to injured investors just as it did the year before. In the past few months, the SEC with others in law enforcement, have restored liquidity to Auction Rate Security investors in the largest securities buyback in the nation's history with tens of billions of dollars of liquidity being restored to tens of thousands of investors. The CFTC this year obtained more than $630 million in penalties against those attempting to manipulate the commodity markets and defraud customers as it continues to aggressively pursue its ongoing national crude oil investigation aimed at protecting the nation's energy markets. The SEC and CFTC have dozens of ongoing investigations related to the current market conditions and are using all of their tools to vigorously protect investors and maintain the integrity of our capital markets.
Clearing and Settlement Systems
Regulators are closely monitoring clearing and settlement systems to ensure their proper functioning as we encourage further centralized clearing for other financial instruments to bring enhanced transparency and counterparty risk management to those markets.
While addressing our challenges, we must also remind investors and lenders that we have a resilient and diverse economy and workforce. We have faced economic and financial market challenges in the past. Each time we have worked through them and emerged with stronger financial institutions and regulatory policies. While it will take time and a lot of hard work, we are confident that this time will be no different.
Leadership has been shown with decisiveness and determination by the public sector. Together, we can greatly improve the functioning of markets and move forward to rebuilding our great capital markets.
Yes. But spread the risk around. Don’t get in a situation where the failure of any one entity would wipe you out.
When he's not on vacation...