Posted on 10/02/2010 6:47:01 AM PDT by blam
Cazenove's Robin Griffiths: The October Dip Will Be Nothing Compared To The 2011 Crash
Gus Lubin
Oct. 2, 2010, 8:55 AM
Cazenove Capital Management's Robin Griffith sounded incredibly bearish on a radio interview with King World News.
He even thinks the September Effect will be validated -- because the real negative historical trend lasts from mid-September to mid-October.
The collapse in the next few weeks will be similar to the collapse from April to July, Griffith says, putting his target for the S&P 500 at 940.
If you think that's low, wait till the Alt-A mortgage rate reset in March. "The dip this year is modest. The dip that occurs next year is the one that risks taking major indices right back to where they were in March '09," Griffith says.
The Cazenove strategist has a bearish election prediction too. The market-friendly Republicans will win, but the loss will be so "catastrophic" for the Democrats, it will make Obama an immediate lame duck, hurting the economy.
Oh yeah, and he thinks the plunge protection team was the only thing keeping the rally going in September.
[snip]
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
crazy talk like this will cause a self fulfilling prophecy... all is well and things are rapidly getting better/sarc
Well this is a bit of good news.
I believe that this is the same rag that has a weekly forecast of doom and gloom. IIRC, they made a prediction a month or so ago detailing how the DJIA was absolutely destined to fall through the 6000 level. Gave a day and even a projected hour when this was all to happen.
Still waiting.
Robin Griffiths - CCM Technical Strategist
ROBIN GRIFFITHS - Joined Cazenove Capital in 2008 as Technical Strategist providing strategic input and marketing support, primarily to Private Wealth Management.
For over 30 years Robin Griffiths has been one of the most respected technical analysts of world stock markets, bonds, currencies and commodities. He became a technical analyst with WI Carr, based first in Hong Kong and then Tokyo before returning to London. During this time he started to develop his own trading system, analysing stock and market trends.
He was then chief technical strategist with HSBC for over 20 years.
His most recent position was as Head of Asset Allocation with Rathbones. Robin has been an advisor to the ECU fund, a hedge fund using technical analysis to capture movements in currencies since 1985 and latterly to the Rathpeacon fund, a long short equity fund concentrating on the largest 500 companies in the world by market capitalisation. Robin has 44 years investment experience.
This is what happens when government causes a mess , doesn’t understand how and why and doesn’t take responsibility, then makes it worse by throwing stock solutions at the mess, such as Keynesian spending or tax cuts, etc.
The Federal Reserve needs to get the Fed Funds rate up to about 3.5% NOW.....
Let people trade for or borrow against future Social Security benefits to fund a big down payment for their house to gain equity and refinance—and make the banks accept free re-financing because of the cash inflow they will get from the future.....
The Federal government needs to asume state budgets at 2008 spending levels for three years while States use all their revenue to pay off their debts so they don’t crowd out the private sector or the Federal government’s lower borrowing costs....
Eliminate the Medicare tax and the business side of payroll taxes.....and lower the Social Security tax to 5% and dump disability and survivor’s benefits onto the general fund....and let the Bush tax cuts expire, but raise the standard deduction on income tax to $30.000 and index for inflation....
Lower the corporate income tax to 28% with no tax on dividend or interest income......let the cap gains tax go up to 20% but index for inflation and with a $50k yearly exemption for all cap gains collected after retirement—indexed for inflation...
Eliminate home mortgage interest deduction m deduction for charitable giving, and tax deductibility for 401ks and IRAs, but let people put whatever they want after taxes into these accounts........
Eliminate the child tax credit.....
Raise consumption taxes to balance the budget as the unemployment rate falls.....
Change the law that gives the Federal Reserve a “dual mandate” that puts inflation and jobs on different ends....
Make their job ONLY to preserve the value of our currency, for price stability.......
Let the money supply expand when the economy wants to expand-—because letting the money supply expand is what drives down the unemployment rate so that you can get budget surpluses at lower tax rates....
The Fed needs to forget the quasi-Keynesian idea of 5% “full employment” and NOT INTERFERE with the housing or labor markets or economic growth......
Let the unemployment rate fall as far as it wants to go and instead of killing demand for labor by limiting money supply growth and raising interest rates, let the supply of labor meet the demand as the price goes up, including immigration....
The GOP takeover will help the economy.
I trade every day and avoid being poluted by this rag and it’s sensational headlines. I have to check back now and then for comic relief!
His article and comments are what I posted about.
The GOP takeover will help the economy.
Exactly the money now on the sidelines will be used as those whom have it to use will have a better and safer sense of things out there!
Ultimately what will happen in November is that both parties will be held responsible for the economy. Which is fine with me, since both parties have their share of blame in causing the problems.
Check out a mirror dumbass.
THX FOR THE PING.
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