[SunkenCiv]

54% of likely voters identifying themselves as politically conservative, while moderates are in conspicuously short supply compared with recent midterms. Also, Republicans make up a larger share of the electorate in Gallup's initial 2010 likely voter pool -- greater than their 1994 share

Not to piss in the punchbowl, but telephone polls are going to skew conservative, because of the mobile phones that are the only phones so many younger and lefter boneheads have as literally their only phone -- no landline. Thanks Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus.

[SeattleBruce]

“Not to piss in the punchbowl, but telephone polls are going to skew conservative”

The pollsters are still doing sampling though.

[Anti-Bubba182]

“...Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone-only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday....”

[justiceseeker93]

...telephone polls are going to skew conservative, because of the mobile phones that are the only phones that so many younger and lefter boneheads have as literally their only phone.

Good thought, but it's my understanding that current pollsters call cell phones as well as landlines as part of their methodology. Whether the percentage of cell phones that they reach enables them to get an accurate-enough sample of the likely voting population is a the big question.

[neverdem]

Not to piss in the punchbowl, but telephone polls are going to skew conservative, because of the mobile phones that are the only phones so many younger and lefter boneheads have as literally their only phone -- no landline.

"Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone-only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

"Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design."

The 18 - 29 years old cohort are only supposed to 8% of likely voter turnout in the low turnout model.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

“... telephone polls are going to skew conservative ...”

Actually, conservatives might tend to screen more via answering machines and voicemail, if I’m not mistaken.

[grey_whiskers]

That's OK, Sunken.

You didn't just piss in the punchbowl: you laid a giant turd in it.

What we NEED is to take over the press. I can't tell you the number of people at work who quote NPR or The New York Times as though those sources are Gospel Truth^TM; and then, tell me how independent-thinking and open-minded they are.

Cheers!