Survey USA: Coons 54, O’Donnell 33

Hotair ^ | 10/13/2010 | Allahpundit

[WebFocus]

Worth flagging if only because this is the last comparison point we’ll have before tonight’s debate blockbuster. I’m searching for the silver lining in the crosstabs, but … help me out. The pollster’s reputable, the sample is enormous and limited to likely voters, and it’s right in the same range of all the other numbers we’ve been seeing lately — except a bit worse. (This is the first poll, I think, to put the margin at +20.) It was also taken over the last few days, which means the effect of her “I’m not a witch” ad is probably priced in. And it’s consistent with another trend we’ve seen in the Delaware polling, namely, that it’s women voters, not men, who are responsible for the bulk of Coons’s lead. Among men, O’Donnell trails here 49/41; among women, it’s 58/25. There’s a number worth crunching for Nate Silver or Mark Blumenthal or some other statistician with time on his hands today. Is there any wider gender gap in any race this year than the Delaware Senate battle?

The silver linings, I guess, are (a) she’s still sitting on a pile of money with which to fund ads, and of course (b) turnout. Two years ago, Biden crushed O’Donnell thanks to a partisan breakdown of 48D/31R/21I. Hopenchange fee-vah was high, so Democrats were motivated. Survey USA’s sample predicts turnout this year at 44D/30R/22I, which surely ain’t happening. There’s bound to be more Republicans in the pool this time with tea partiers enthusiastic and no Obama at the top of the ticket. The thing is, there’d have to be many, many, many more to dent a 15-20 point lead, especially since O’Donnell wins the GOP vote only by a relatively narrow 64/19 margin (Coons, by comparison, takes Democrats 81/10). So there’s your “what to expect” checklist for tonight’s debate — lots of talking points aimed at winning women and the centrist Republicans in Castle’s base. Castle himself could help in that regard, of course, but … he’s not going to. Quote:

Nine-term Delaware Rep. Mike Castle, who lost his state’s Senate GOP primary, said Wednesday that he won’t endorse a candidate in the general election…

“No, I’m not going to endorse anybody in that particular race, not because of the competence of any of the candidates, but because the primary I went through was very nasty in a variety of ways, both politically and personally, and I’ve just declined to get involved in that,” Castle told CNN’s John King in an interview to air Wednesday evening.

Translation: “I’m a sore loser.” At the very least, we’ve gotten some tasty Taiwanese animation out of this race. It’s mostly a goof on O’Donnell, but enjoy the salute to Harry Reid’s “pet” near the end. Open thread fo

[outofstyle]

I don’t know about silver linings. However, you mention the money she has raised. It seems to me that she has not really begun to spend that yet. It is also worth noting that most voters here in DE have no idea who Chris Coons is or what he stands for. I am hoping that they will benefit from a $4 million education in the next two weeks. It will certainly come down to turnout here. Her voters are super motivated. Also there is a large group of pissed off voters who may have never voted in a non- presidential year election who will be voting for her. Turnout for the primary was 3x usual for DE. This fact may be confounding the “likely voter” models used by the pollsters. Do not count her out.

[LS]

Once again, better the Dem than a RINO who will vote Dem and give the Dems cover. We need to CLEARLY align the parties so there is no question who is effing up the world.

[Oldpuppymax]

Then WHY is Hussein headed to Delaware to help Coons?? Sorry, but I don’t buy it.

[Non-Sequitur]

Lot’s of undecideds in that mix.

She could take them all and still lose by 12 points. And a large Republican turnout isn't necessarily an indication of O'Donnell support - half the Republicans in the primary voted for her opponent and may well pull the leaver for Coons.

[farmguy]

That’s the way I read it too.

[Non-Sequitur]

Then WHY is Hussein headed to Delaware to help Coons?? Sorry, but I don’t buy it.

Because Coons is the only Democrat out there favored to win AND who doesn't mind being seen with Obama. The administration is trying to appear relevant.

[re_nortex]

Hey, I live in Delaware, and I voted for O’Donnell, and I like Delaware.

Are Delaware Dems of the type that bad weather will keep them away from the polls?

If so, I'm hoping for rain and thunder on November 2, 2010 to suppress their turnout. The O’Donnell supporters are passionate and will cast a vote for her -- rain or shine.

[Red Steel]

We at least won’t see RINO Castle stabbing the Conservatives from the rear, and we would get to clearly see Coons the Marxist enemy from the front.

[chimera]

She can hardly make it into thirties.

Which means only base support. Its where Bush was at the end of his term and may be where Obama is headed. Candidates who only win their base and little or nothing else are going to get slaughtered 2:1 or worse. IF it turns out this way this story will trump almost any other on Election Day in the mainstream press. They'll spin it as a huge "win" for Obama and a national repudiation of the Tea Party and the 'Pubs, even if they win everywhere else (unlikely as that is).

[wiseprince]

A coons vote is not a bi-partisan vote and that means a lot. Castle is just another Liberal anyways. Principals should count for something and it shouldn’t all be about the numbers and who has an R or a D beside their name

[Sir Napsalot]

This may be a reputable polling firm, but I find it hard to believe O’Donnell still only gets 33% in this latest poll. Basically it is the same ‘hard core’ Republicans and/or conservatives that voted for her in the 2008 race (against Biden).

The Tea Party surge and Republican enthusiam did NOTHING to help out O’Donnell at all? That is not the impression I see on the ground here (even in New Castle county) in DE.

[RightOnTheBorder]

I would rather have Coons in the Senate than Castle. Based on his track record Castle was just waiting to get the most leverage out of switching parties. Further, O'Donnell’s numbers would be a lot better if the RINO’s and squishy moderates would stop pining for Castle and support her.

[DesertRhino]

Yeahhhh, it’s too bad we won’t have Castle there to break the tie! He always stood with the repubs. /LOL

[GoMonster]

Happy Christinabots. In all honesty maybe it was good at least to get rid of Castle. He is a Jerk for not endorsing. With tha said her marketing is terrible and unless she changes it is too late. Unfortunately, she is not that bright of a person. I am not talking about academically bright, I mean street smart bright. She is not.

[TonyInOhio]

Once again, better the Dem than a RINO who will vote Dem and give the Dems cover. We need to CLEARLY align the parties so there is no question who is effing up the world.

I most heartily concur.

I've thought for some time that the most likely outcome of the Senate races would be a 50-50 tie. Castle was more than ready to reprise the whole Jumpin' Jim Jeffords episode. No more!

[fantom]

The party pushed her down the stairs . Rove , Miller and Krauthammer added to the piling on . I'm not saying she was a great candidate but she raised big cash and hired a tough team . Looks like they took the cash and ran. So add all that up and throw in the Rove rump swabs on all of the sites and this is what we get . The good things , another old rino put to pasture , development over time of another conservative woman and Rove , Miller and the republican rump swabs have moved off Palin .

[perfect_rovian_storm]

He’s headed to Delaware because of the reason that Coons was chosen for this race. He was chosen to be a loser. He was supposed to be a sacrificial lamb to make way for Senator Mike Castle. He’s a 3rd rate back-bencher who is only winning because he’s not his opponent.

Couple that with the considerable amount that she has raised and the nightmare that the National party has on its hands defending itself this year and you can see why Obama and Biden would be doing everything they can to make sure the lead holds.

So, their coming to DE doesn’t mean the polls are wrong. It means that the Dems are aware that Christine does have a chance to pull an upset. It is a remote chance, but they want to squash it nonetheless.

[Noamie]

Coons hasn’t really polled below +11 since August 5th in 13 separate polls.

If you take the last 5 polls then Coons hasn’t dropped below +16 (and it’s going up for him).

This “new” poll only continues the trend.

You may like O’Donnell (as I do), but those aren’t good numbers for anyone, anytime, any year.

See fo’ yourself: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/de/delaware_senate_oadonnell_vs_coons-1670.html

That being said: S. Brown didn’t get a lead on Coakley until 9 days out. 9 days out, Buddies. And even then it only got to around +5 or so. Never lose hope.

[hampdenkid]

Unfortunately, you are entirely correct in your analysis. As is the poster above who said we can thank Pudge Rove for this. And the poster who said her ghastly “Aren’t-I-Oh-So-Cute” ads hurt more than they helped.

Believe it or not, however, it can still be pulled out — if she fires her current media advisers and bareknuckles it from now until election day. I hate for candidates to personally go negative, but COD has left herself no choice — starting with tonight’s debate.

My advice: Forget the little girl smile, Christine, and come out as a serious, mature woman who has had just about enough of the sexism and catcalls. Think back to how your mom looked when she was lowering the boom on you, and do the same to Coons. Pudge, and the far left smear machine.

Please, please, PLEASE, Christine, you need your Ronald Reagan, “I paid for this microphone” moment.

[ShandaLear]

Did they vote in the Delaware primary?