Posted on 10/13/2010 1:43:04 PM PDT by WebFocus
Worth flagging if only because this is the last comparison point we’ll have before tonight’s debate blockbuster. I’m searching for the silver lining in the crosstabs, but … help me out. The pollster’s reputable, the sample is enormous and limited to likely voters, and it’s right in the same range of all the other numbers we’ve been seeing lately — except a bit worse. (This is the first poll, I think, to put the margin at +20.) It was also taken over the last few days, which means the effect of her “I’m not a witch” ad is probably priced in. And it’s consistent with another trend we’ve seen in the Delaware polling, namely, that it’s women voters, not men, who are responsible for the bulk of Coons’s lead. Among men, O’Donnell trails here 49/41; among women, it’s 58/25. There’s a number worth crunching for Nate Silver or Mark Blumenthal or some other statistician with time on his hands today. Is there any wider gender gap in any race this year than the Delaware Senate battle?
The silver linings, I guess, are (a) she’s still sitting on a pile of money with which to fund ads, and of course (b) turnout. Two years ago, Biden crushed O’Donnell thanks to a partisan breakdown of 48D/31R/21I. Hopenchange fee-vah was high, so Democrats were motivated. Survey USA’s sample predicts turnout this year at 44D/30R/22I, which surely ain’t happening. There’s bound to be more Republicans in the pool this time with tea partiers enthusiastic and no Obama at the top of the ticket. The thing is, there’d have to be many, many, many more to dent a 15-20 point lead, especially since O’Donnell wins the GOP vote only by a relatively narrow 64/19 margin (Coons, by comparison, takes Democrats 81/10). So there’s your “what to expect” checklist for tonight’s debate — lots of talking points aimed at winning women and the centrist Republicans in Castle’s base. Castle himself could help in that regard, of course, but … he’s not going to. Quote:
Nine-term Delaware Rep. Mike Castle, who lost his state’s Senate GOP primary, said Wednesday that he won’t endorse a candidate in the general election…
“No, I’m not going to endorse anybody in that particular race, not because of the competence of any of the candidates, but because the primary I went through was very nasty in a variety of ways, both politically and personally, and I’ve just declined to get involved in that,” Castle told CNN’s John King in an interview to air Wednesday evening.
Translation: “I’m a sore loser.” At the very least, we’ve gotten some tasty Taiwanese animation out of this race. It’s mostly a goof on O’Donnell, but enjoy the salute to Harry Reid’s “pet” near the end. Open thread fo
I don’t think most people outside the state realize we voted as much against Castle this time as for Christine. If she wins, it would be nice , but Castle had just pushed the conservative base too far and him being taken out was reward enough.
I'll send them a thank you letter for getting rid of the cap-and-trade Republican, better a Rat than a rino. Let the Rats own their liberal legislation so we can pin it on them.
it looks like she is having another money bomb with a $1 million goal. Right now she’s about half way there.
Not 21 pts, that’s for sure.
The hate Rove crowd is on the wrong track ...Rove gave her some very good free advice and she took it.... I bet he has also stuck a lot of money in there.
To blame Rove for her difficulties makes me wonder whatever happened to personal responsibility
Obie is making the trip to Delaware because he gets his jollies by kicking women when they are down.
We at FR tend to forget that even a lot of relatively conservative Republican voters pay less attention than we do. They’ll vote for a conservative, but not one who they think is “extremist” like O’Donnell. It’s not that they’re not conservative, but that their ideology is soft. To win their votes you need:
1. a conservative who can properly present and market themselves
2. Someone who doesn’t have enough baggage that the MSM can dredge out against them.
O’Donnell fails the second part miserably and could potentially pass the first part if she could overcome the second.
Since these polls are normally 10-12% off I would say she still has a pretty good chance.
Pray for America
And I'm sure they'll try. And will also try and paint it as a repudiation of Palin since she endorsed O'Donnell. But unless they also upset Paul and Angle and Miller then whatever claims they make about tea party trouncing or Palin repudiation will seem hollow at best. And at this point I don't see how they can possibly accomplish that.
In the Midwest and South, the Tea Party movement transcends party affiliation and appeals to the masses.
In places like CA, MD, DE, and most of the rest of the coasts (except the SE), it has only really penetrated the already hard-core GOP/Conservative bases and not much else.
Give it a couple election cycles. We’re gonna win BIG this November but we’re not gonna win it ALL.
yep, the “I am not a witch” ad was incredibly dismally stupid stupid stupid - as bad as if whoever wrote it sandbagged her
Is she really that naive? She’d still be better than that aging marxist wannabe Coons
Rove should be banished from the party for starting all of this however.
Really? With a 50-50 Senate, and Castle's GOP voting record at 52 percent? A guy who can't bring himself to endorse the Republican primary victor? It woulda been Castle voting for Schumer instead. I guess whatever bribe they might have given Castle for bolting the caucus would have gone to Delaware, but that's about the only difference in outcomes. And the fact that CASTLE'S GONE.
Typical idiots that are so ignorant so as not to realize that their King and the party are communists and will bite them in the butt.
Do you know if the debate will be televised.
I had heard that CNN would be televising it, starting at 7:30 PM EDT.
Rove is a legend in his own mind. His obsession with getting amnesty has divided the GOP and more importantly, an amnesty will destroy this country with the stroke of a pen.
Well surprise, surprise! The panty waist brigade is out once again telling us of the doom and gloom in Delaware for COD!
I am absolutely embarrassed by some of my fellow Freepers already throwing in the towel.
What a bunch of Pu$$ies!
All over America the election has be bought with freebies and the idiots like not working for a living. At least 1/3 of Americans are the most ignorant on the earth. When they are thrown under the bus they will bitch and hit the streets.
Thank you.
I’ve been watching CNN for the last 24 hours, only breaking to sleep since they have the best Chile coverage.
It will be interesting how they will do both.
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