The Key House Races Pickup Prediction Model

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 14 October 2010 | Interceptpoint

[ken5050]

Excellent idea...I read on Cook a few days ago how his ranking is biased towards incumbents..which are practically all Dem. Indeed he said that if an incumbent is under 50%, and has not been indicted, he rates it a toss-up. Pollsters are like surfers, they don’t always catch a really big wave...or they’re afraid to hang way out on it..

[AuH2ORepublican]

Cook recently wrote that any incumbent in a race that he rates “tossup” is on life support, and few of such incumbents are likely to survive.

[WOSG]

Indeed. I saw a list of ‘pickups’ of 50, then a list of 26 tossups, and in the tossups, many Rs are running ahead.

If the energy/turnout holds, GOP will sweep those 26+ and a few others ... pickup of 70+ seats is possible.

It all comes down to turnout and the swing vote’s final decision.

[ken5050]

Suggest you go to www.nationalreview.com There’s an excellent piece today, “The 70% rule”..basically suggests that in a wave election, 70% of the seats in play flip...I’d be interested in your thoughts..

[Parley Baer]

“DSSC now pouring money into Nevada.”

Yes, I heard they are taking the money from other races they have deemed they cannot win and sending it to Nevada to help Reid. I need to make another donation to Sharron Angle. Also one to O’Donnell as the RNC is not supporting her.

[E.G.C.]

BTTT

[Pollster1]

If the energy/turnout holds, GOP will sweep those 26+ and a few others ... pickup of 70+ seats is possible.

The plus on 70+ is important. It's not a sure thing, but there are multiple effects that are not in the models pollsters use in public. This could be a beautiful year, with your "plus" operative, or it could be a disappointment. The answer is to vote, drag your (working/taxpaying) friends and neighbors to vote, and watch the ballot counters and ACORN for fraud. We cannot get overconfident, just confident enough to celebrate once the work is 100% done.

[saganite]

I guess if you had to choose, O’Donnell would be the best choice to contribute to. Angle has over 14 million in donations. O’Donnell isn’t anywhere near that.

[Liz]

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 47% Democrats 39% (Dems plan to tighten the race is really working /snix)....... Even a trip to the dentist for a root canal is more popular than Obama’s brand in the US these days....

Watta coincidence---ever since the Ovomitons gave Rahm Emanuel the bum's rush out of Washington to "save" a few Dem seats, the Repub numbers got higher........watta nice gesture to Repubs. Who will the Dems throw to the wolves next to "save" seats? LOL.

Now they're sending "Ace in the Hole" Michele out to campaign for desperate Dems. Watch Repub numbers go even higher. This is just my opinion....but I think the Dems should send her out more often (/snix).

===================================

DEM DEATH PANELS DSCC deciding which candidates can survive midterms. Pulling funding from the weak to salvage stronger Dems.

DO NOT FUND Dems toe-tagging non-productive Dems.

[1010RD]

Here's the latest in the IL-9 and this is directly from the Pollak campaign.

NEW POLL SHOWS SCHAKOWSKY BELOW 50%

Our new poll data shows that Jan Schakowsky has fallen to 48%, while Republican challenger Joel Pollak is gaining ground at 30%.

Most telling, only 44% of voters say that Schakowsky deserves to be re-elected, while 42% say that it is time to give a new person a chance.

Among those who feel most strongly, only 37% say that Schakowsky deserves to be re-elected, while 38% say it is time to give a new person a chance.

This is a big deal as the seat is considered a "lock" and the District is presumed liberal.

Pollak has a chance to tighten this race even further.

[November 2010]

The record is north of 100 in the Clevand election year in the 1890’s.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Yes, I read Henry Olsen’s article on the “70% rule.” It seems to me that it all depends on which seats you assume to be “in play”: he assumes that several GOP-held Senate seats are in play but not the CT of NY-B seat; if you include only the top 13 GOP Senate takeover opportunities and the GOP won 70% of them it would be a pickup of 9 rather than 6 or 7 as his formula gave him; and if we didn’t include the 3 GOP takeover gimmees (ND, AR and IN), it would leave 10 seats, and the GOP winning 70% of them would give us 10 (enough for a Senate majority). I still think that we’ll pick up 12.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

How GOP Lady & I will be feeling come 11-3-10, LOL!

[Diana in Wisconsin]

[GOP_Lady]

You’ve got that right, dear Diana. Are you ready to party hearty?

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Always!

You’re home early. :)

[GOP_Lady]

Still waiting for hubby to get off work. He works 6 blocks away for our local human cattle car authority.

[Kahuna]

Mahalo IP for all the hard number crunching. Really appreciate it.

[padre35]

That is the trend line I have been waiting to see, you could see it back in what June? But the slow drift is become the beginning of a moderate sized tide.

TBH, I expected a much stronger trend to the GoP, there is still almost three weeks left but I expect 80ish seats to be in jeopardy for the Dems, but Dem Election Stealing is legendary so saying 80 is just not going to happen.

[ken5050]

With an “in-play” Senate universe of 13...one more or less..skews the 70% rule..I think it’s more applicable to the House. And I do believe that the constant since WW II..that every time the House switches, the Senate does also..that will hold here..it’s the mark of a real wave..