Posted on 10/14/2010 12:58:39 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
I like those odds.
BTTT
Sure. As you get closer to the magic 218 seats and then exceed that number the probability of the GOP taking back the House rises rapidly and approaches 100%. It never makes it but it gets arbitrarily close.
Great news. Thanks for all the hard work.
I hope it keeps moving in this direction!!!
This model does come close to a good number. Compare to intrade.com, which predicts Republicans gain between 55-60 seats, and yet only 85% chance of Republicans taking the House. Nice overlay here.
Also, read the fine print on DemonRat control of the Senate on Intrade. Intrade doesn’t count Lieberman and Sanders, and won’t count Crist or Murkowski, for either party. So, at about 10%, neither party controlling the Senate is low, and Demons at 50% is too high.
Thanks! This is looking great, let’s hope the seats keep increasing for the Republicans.
Given that most of the pundits are still behind the curve, I expect that GOP pickups will be far, far north of 44 seats. For the sake of argument, you should move every pundit rating one spot towards the GOP (likely Dem to leans Dem, leans Dem to tossup, tossup to leans GOP, leand GOP to likely GOP, etc.) and run the numbers again to see what happens.
Historically, what is the largest number of seats to swap during an election for either party? Just interested to see if this election is approaching that record.
“There are also 22 seats where the dem is up by less than one percentage point.”
I think the tide will bring those in as well.
This is also on your page and it’s interesting to note the different projections. There’s quite a disparity based on the different models but all but one project a Republican takeover.
Republican Pickup Projections
Dick Morris 73
Fred Barnes 60
Unlikely Voter 60
RCP 51
Freedom’s Lighthouse 50
Sabato 47
NYT-Silver 47
Cook 50+
KHR 44
EP 47
Rothenberg 37-45
CQ Politics 36
We Need 39 to Win the House
Heh--this is a good omen. LV paper reporting panic in Reid's camp (Intrade: Angle 55, Reid 44) DSSC now pouring money into Nevada.
When Rand Paul called his opponent a "Democrat, Rand's numbers shot to a 15 point lead.
So how bad is it? "Angle's running the worst campaign in the country, and she could still win." Carville's comments about Sharron Angle could be said of almost any Repub candidate---with a good or bad campaign going. NOTE THAT Not One Democrat is campaigning on their legislative victories, O'care, bailouts, Tarp, and "summer of recovery."
STUCK ON STUPID No matter what progressives do, it backfires against them. Obama is between a rock and a hard place---he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. Not even Ohaha giving Rahm Emanuel the bum's rush out of the WH can turn the tide of the Republican tsunami forming offshore---bringing the deluge of Nov 2, 2010.
1894. The pickup was something like 130 seats. Not likely this year but 50 to 70 is looking possible. I’m betting that the PJ Too model will keep rising right up to election day.
“Compare to intrade.com, which predicts Republicans gain between 55-60 seats, and yet only 85% chance of Republicans taking the House.”
This makes sense, because an outlyer “october surprise” might happen, so there is that 10-15% chance of a shift that denies GOP a House majority, but almost certainty that we are on track to a big GOP victory.
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